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Heh. I was just about to ask if this was another term for the bullwhip effect, and the page actually links right to it. I think the overall effect is that we a
by myself248 6y ago
Heh. I was just about to ask if this was another term for the bullwhip effect, and the page actually links right to it.
I think the overall effect is that we all have to get used to things being scarce or spotty for a while, that's all. The era of perfect infinite next-day availability of everything has come to a pause. Be patient, adjust expectations, make do, and give the system time to recover.
And wherever possible, buy local, buy on-shore.
- nemo44x 6y agoThank god for long books and summer weather.
- menomatter 6y agoThank God for living and growing up in Syria. We are expert at living with scarcity
- xwolfi 6y agoThank God for living in China. We are expert at doing it ourselves with just an email with a blueprint :D
- h0l0cube 6y agoAnd an onshore manufacturing capability that the world gave up on and delegated to your country of living. Protectionism's best advert has been the logistics disruption of Covid and the recent breakdown in diplomatic relations between the West and China
- breischl 6y agoThis is pretty true. I think this whole thing has been an argument for a low across-the-board tariff, to internalize the risk of supply chain disruptions.
- avidiax 6y agoMaybe a tariff inversely related to domestic production of the good and directly related to its necessity. If your country produces zero units of a necessity (e.g. 7nm silicon), the tariff should be high. Zero units of beanie babies, low tariff.
- tastyfreeze 6y agoAgreed, tariffs should be used as a tool to price the risk of losing that supply chain.
- waheoo 6y agoI can feel the salt on those downvotes to AP. Not his fault he grew up in a country the rest of the world thought they were taking advantage of.
- h0l0cube 6y agoDefinitely no salt from me. Just gave them an upvote to compensate. They have a legit point, and so do I, I reckon.
- taneq 6y ago"These people have no idea how to live without money. They're what's called 'new poor.'"
- vagrantJin 6y agoMay you rebuild Syria and your grandchildren's children enjoy the shade. I suppose war creates resilience in people to live with less and make do. That head-strong mentality helps a lot.
- mschuster91 6y agoHalf-Croat here. Unfortunately the only thing war and widespread poverty creates is a massive brain drain, as the most capable people flee for greener grass and, especially if the causal crisis goes on for longer than two or three years or widespread destruction takes place, emigrate permanently. What is left over is indeed a resilient population, but that's nowhere near enough to (re)build a country.
- MomoXenosaga 6y agoYeah the Yugoslavian civil war and violent breakup was disastrous. War can destroy something in a year that takes decades to rebuild. And you touch on something very important: in our globalised econom the best and the brightest can just pick up their bags and move for greener pastures. Why stay behind to rebuild when you can move to Holland or Austria?
- mschuster91 6y ago> Why stay behind to rebuild when you can move to Holland or Austria? That's why waging a war always needs some decent rebuild plan, similar to WW2's Marshall Plan. Never thinking further than "throw a shitload of money towards military contractors, NGOs and whoever we can find willing to serve as a government" is what led to the failed states of Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya. If the West had offered the people in these countries the clear offer "we give you X billion dollars, in exchange for actual democracy and stability", the results would have been way different...
- jfengel 6y agoI don't see Mullah Omar, Saddam Hussein, or Moammar Gaddhafi willingly walking away from their jobs for a bribe, even a 10-figure one. Nor do I see their populations successfully revolting against them for 50 times that. I would love it if we could bribe our way to a more peaceful world, but I don't think it's that easy.
- runawaybottle 6y agoGood thing everything I really want to buy is several hundred thousand dollars (houses and shit). I suppose I’ll make do without the latest doldrum, as usual.
- irrational 6y agoYou are paying way too much for your manure.
- iab 6y agoWho is your manure guy
- arthurcolle 6y agoGot kicked off of Twitter, now we have to in-house all our manure operations
- sneak 6y ago> And wherever possible, buy local, buy on-shore. Organic, local 7nm microprocessors only.
- iab 6y agoFoundry-to-tower
- aksss 6y agoFree-range and gas-fed, baby!
- bowmessage 6y agonon-GMOSFET
- lostlogin 6y agoSeasonal too.
- dv_dt 6y agoOne problem is that many economists will look at the resulting price inflation and treat as money supply inflation, and call on less government spending and tighter lending when really we need time and serious covid treatments for the logistics to settle down.
- eloff 6y agoGiven the insane money supply inflation happening now, I'll put that in the pluses column.
- mschuster91 6y agoI agree the money supply inflation is scary but that's only because it doesn't end up in the real economy - most of it ends up in the stock markets propping up share prices. Actually using the freshly minted money to do stuff like infrastructure investments - no matter what, across the Western countries all kinds of infra are derelict - would cause an instant trickle-down effect since almost all of that is manual hard labor.
- eloff 6y agoDoesn't end up in the real economy yet. Give it time, money doesn't stay where you spend it. Buying bonds gives money to the bond holders. In today's market, they probably buy stocks with that money, but then that goes to the stock holders. Which are a range of characters, some of whom will take that money and put it into the real economy.
- mschuster91 6y ago> Doesn't end up in the real economy yet. Give it time, money doesn't stay where you spend it. The bailout money from 2008ff still hasn't "trickled down" to the people, over a decade later. Trickle down only works when the amount of layers between the initial receivers of money and the intended recipients is as close to 1 as possible. Hiring a construction firm to build a road and mandating a decent wage for employees in the tender is the most efficient way for that.
- FpUser 6y agoBuy on-shore - COVID kind of fucked it up. I used to ignore Amazon until there was no other choice. Now it is Amazon mostly and I do not think my habit will return unless Amazon itself morphs into something different. Buy local - I afraid other than some food there isn't much stuff that either does not come from off-shore or is made from off-shored components.
- chc 6y agoThis viewpoint seems a bit defeatist. It's true that even buying local rarely avoids 100% of interaction with overseas companies, but there's a lot of room between 100% and 0%. If you just don't want to think about it, that's one thing, but if you do care, I don't think letting perfect be the enemy of good is productive.
- FpUser 6y agoI am not defeatist. I am realist / pragmatic and I am looking after myself an my family. It is not in my job description to wage political crusade about China. I buy whatever makes financial sense for me. I am way more concerned about the way FAANG and the likes manage to affect my life. The only reason we have non-local is because of the international trade and your own big corporations moving production and sometimes even research facilities overseas. If you not happy about the non-local situation go to fat cats who sold your country for an extra buck in profits and bought politicians to let them do it and convince them that they're wrong.
- shakezula 6y agoSupply shock is not something we’ve had to deal with for a long time