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Yeah. This is the standard too many people are bad 60s rhetoric. The reality is that China and Japan are barreling towards a too many old people crises, as is

by N1H1L 6y ago

Yeah. This is the standard too many people are bad 60s rhetoric. The reality is that China and Japan are barreling towards a too many old people crises, as is India. I come from Bengal, and my state, and city specifically have had a TFR below 1.8 for twenty years now. Combine that with out migration and we already have a problem there.

toomuchtodo 6y ago
This is not a problem, it is a challenge to be managed. The world is on track to peak at 10 billion people near 2100. It is not a bad thing total fertility rate continues to decline far below replacement rate. Yes, you're going to burn a few more percentage points of GDP during a window of time on caring for the elderly vs other progress producing activities, but such is the cost of reaching a population equilibrium with sustainable resource consumption.
mc32 6y ago
How long would India be able to keep up TFR with low-density high-TFR places? If people become more affluent and demand more and consume more, at some point minor events become catastrophic. It's not sustainable, unless we start populating other planets (not likely any time soon). Managing an old population is another issue and an issue everyone will have to come to terms with and manage at some point.
- N1H1L 6y ago
  India's high TFR mostly comes from the so-called BIMARU states - Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh [1]. In fact, almost all of Indian states are below a TFR of 2 now. Consumption is another thing now. Power demand is rising rapidly. Air conditioning is becoming rapidly widespread, and given India's summer heat and humidity - it's understandable. However, when it comes to per capita consumption and investment in cleaner technologies India honestly is not that behind. I won't be surprised to see the majority of India running on EVs in two decades with wind/solar/nuclear providing most of the power. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_and_union_territories_of_India_by_fertility_rate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_and_union_terri...

by N1H1L 6y ago

toomuchtodo 6y ago

This is not a problem, it is a challenge to be managed. The world is on track to peak at 10 billion people near 2100. It is not a bad thing total fertility rate continues to decline far below replacement rate. Yes, you're going to burn a few more percentage points of GDP during a window of time on caring for the elderly vs other progress producing activities, but such is the cost of reaching a population equilibrium with sustainable resource consumption.

mc32 6y ago

How long would India be able to keep up TFR with low-density high-TFR places? If people become more affluent and demand more and consume more, at some point minor events become catastrophic. It's not sustainable, unless we start populating other planets (not likely any time soon). Managing an old population is another issue and an issue everyone will have to come to terms with and manage at some point.

N1H1L 6y ago
India's high TFR mostly comes from the so-called BIMARU states - Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh [1]. In fact, almost all of Indian states are below a TFR of 2 now. Consumption is another thing now. Power demand is rising rapidly. Air conditioning is becoming rapidly widespread, and given India's summer heat and humidity - it's understandable. However, when it comes to per capita consumption and investment in cleaner technologies India honestly is not that behind. I won't be surprised to see the majority of India running on EVs in two decades with wind/solar/nuclear providing most of the power. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_and_union_territories_of_India_by_fertility_rate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_and_union_terri...