3 ms·

It's a pity they didn't ask our advice; we could have told them exactly what to do to minimize damage.

wutbrodo 6y ago
Given the impression I've gotten from your habit of replying with midwit snark to my comments, I don't suggest that you try doing so. But yes, there are plenty of fields full of intelligent, quantitative people that are better at basic scientific literacy and modeling uncertainty than our public health infrastructure has shown themselves to be. This isn't just theoretical; every single "heterodox" conclusion I was exposed to that was based on the science instead of whatever the fuck goes on at the CDC/FDA ended up becoming CDC/FDA policy, several months later. Medical culture's innumeracy[1], religious adherence to omission bias, and refusal to model reality outside of the exact parameters of an RCT is potentially adaptive for the normal clinical context. But it's an extremely poor fit for a pandemic, and has cost thousand and thousands of lives over the course of this one. It's a travesty that the CDC, FDA and WHO couldn't collectively manage to provide information a fraction as useful as accurate as (eg) Alex Tabarrok's freaking Twitter account. For someone of your, uh, limitations, it's probably better to slavishly follow public health advice, in the absence of the ability to do any critical thinking. For anyone with a median IQ, understanding when political/bureaucratic/cultural failures are cause for skepticism of public health conclusions is a must. [1] Famously, studies show 80% of doctors unable to do the most basic of statistics relevant to their job, like being able to interpret the chances of breast cancer given a positive mammogram. Over half of the doctors surveyed were off by a factor of NINE in their estimate (90% vs 10%). This isn't a random medical-themed math game with no clinical relevance; one's risk of breast cancer is influenced by multiple factors and false positives mean invasive procedures like biopsies that themselves are not riskless.
caddemon 6y ago
That's literally exactly the problem when experts mislead the public. Particularly if it was intentional to save mask supplies or prevent other stupid behavior, that completely erodes trust and it becomes a game of "what is the expert actually trying to say" when future statements are made. If it was a mistake due to incomplete information, then it happens, but discussion about what went wrong should be encouraged and there should be transparency (perhaps at a later date) about what could be done differently in the future. Experts are going to be right more often than laypeople, but they are still sometimes wrong, and if that can't be acknowledged it's a systemic problem. Ironically, blasting the US for pausing the J&J vaccine was highly upvoted on HN, even though that was also expert decision making, and it was actually in the midst of the issue without the benefit of hindsight. I wonder why the topic of early pandemic mask messaging seems to attract downvotes on HN.
- wutbrodo 6y ago
  > Ironically, blasting the US for pausing the J&J vaccine was highly upvoted on HN, even though that was also expert decision making, and it was actually in the midst of the issue without the benefit of hindsight. I wonder why the topic of early pandemic mask messaging seems to attract downvotes on HN. I suppose for the same reason that so many consider mask requirements an unacceptable intrusion on their most sacred freedoms: it's become heavily politicized, most people only "care" about issues to the extent that they're able to signal tribal membership, and moral indignation isnt any less addictive when it's detached from reality.
  - caddemon 6y ago
    I mean that's definitely true, but I'm not even sure what political camp should be angered by this particular discussion. It's decidedly pro-mask, although I guess if warped it could be read as excusing anti-masker behavior. The only other thing I can think of is people that were toeing the party line back then getting upset by being (sort of) called out. I don't think anti-mask is a popular sentiment on HN, so I doubt that is driving the vote. But this isn't the first time I've seen downvotes on this topic. And it's not like HN loves authority or the biomedical research establishment in general.
    - wutbrodo 6y ago
      > It's decidedly pro-mask, although I guess if warped it could be read as excusing anti-masker behavior This is exactly it. Anti-maskers/anti-restrictionists seized on the stupidity of our early mask policy (and subsequent flip-flop to sanity) as evidence that restriction policy isn't in the interests of public health, but just a power grab by elites. Denying that this ever happened lets their simpleton counterparts stick to a simple narrative, where masks have always and obviously been a good idea and any deviation from the maximalist consensus needs to be crushed without any equivocation or weakness.[1] By contrast, the "war" right now is against vaccine hesitancy[2]. There are no Trumpists or other hated subcultures that are gung-ho on vaccines, so the J&J pause is interpreted simply as "scaring people away from vaccines" during a time when we need vaccines (this is unfortunately correct[3]) For a person infected with tribal-brain, consistency with reality is more or less irrelevant. HN is heavily-populated or at least influenced by subcultures (Bay Area, tech) that have been religiously adherent to the appearance of compliance and performative self-abnegation as a response to the pandemic (like a milder version of the Flagellants during the Black Death). [1] Hence also the ritualistic obsession with masking in places where it isn't necessary. My girlfriend gets uncomfortable that I often take my mask off outdoors when we're walking around, despite it being clear for almost a year that there's minimal risk from doing so, especially when walking swiftly (on top of that, we're both fully-vaccinated). She acknowledges this is irrational, but it's not too difficult to try to meet her in the middle and so I keep it on more often than I'd like. [2] Fascinatingly, US vaccine willingness now polls at ~61% while % vaccinated is 55%. We're effectively in the phase where demand is the challenge. [3] https://mobile.twitter.com/FT__Dan/status/1387531815464751108 https://mobile.twitter.com/FT__Dan/status/138753181546475110...

Given the impression I've gotten from your habit of replying with midwit snark to my comments, I don't suggest that you try doing so. But yes, there are plenty of fields full of intelligent, quantitative people that are better at basic scientific literacy and modeling uncertainty than our public health infrastructure has shown themselves to be. This isn't just theoretical; every single "heterodox" conclusion I was exposed to that was based on the science instead of whatever the fuck goes on at the CDC/FDA ended up becoming CDC/FDA policy, several months later. Medical culture's innumeracy[1], religious adherence to omission bias, and refusal to model reality outside of the exact parameters of an RCT is potentially adaptive for the normal clinical context. But it's an extremely poor fit for a pandemic, and has cost thousand and thousands of lives over the course of this one. It's a travesty that the CDC, FDA and WHO couldn't collectively manage to provide information a fraction as useful as accurate as (eg) Alex Tabarrok's freaking Twitter account. For someone of your, uh, limitations, it's probably better to slavishly follow public health advice, in the absence of the ability to do any critical thinking. For anyone with a median IQ, understanding when political/bureaucratic/cultural failures are cause for skepticism of public health conclusions is a must. [1] Famously, studies show 80% of doctors unable to do the most basic of statistics relevant to their job, like being able to interpret the chances of breast cancer given a positive mammogram. Over half of the doctors surveyed were off by a factor of NINE in their estimate (90% vs 10%). This isn't a random medical-themed math game with no clinical relevance; one's risk of breast cancer is influenced by multiple factors and false positives mean invasive procedures like biopsies that themselves are not riskless.

caddemon 6y ago

That's literally exactly the problem when experts mislead the public. Particularly if it was intentional to save mask supplies or prevent other stupid behavior, that completely erodes trust and it becomes a game of "what is the expert actually trying to say" when future statements are made. If it was a mistake due to incomplete information, then it happens, but discussion about what went wrong should be encouraged and there should be transparency (perhaps at a later date) about what could be done differently in the future. Experts are going to be right more often than laypeople, but they are still sometimes wrong, and if that can't be acknowledged it's a systemic problem. Ironically, blasting the US for pausing the J&J vaccine was highly upvoted on HN, even though that was also expert decision making, and it was actually in the midst of the issue without the benefit of hindsight. I wonder why the topic of early pandemic mask messaging seems to attract downvotes on HN.

wutbrodo 6y ago
> Ironically, blasting the US for pausing the J&J vaccine was highly upvoted on HN, even though that was also expert decision making, and it was actually in the midst of the issue without the benefit of hindsight. I wonder why the topic of early pandemic mask messaging seems to attract downvotes on HN. I suppose for the same reason that so many consider mask requirements an unacceptable intrusion on their most sacred freedoms: it's become heavily politicized, most people only "care" about issues to the extent that they're able to signal tribal membership, and moral indignation isnt any less addictive when it's detached from reality.
- caddemon 6y ago
  I mean that's definitely true, but I'm not even sure what political camp should be angered by this particular discussion. It's decidedly pro-mask, although I guess if warped it could be read as excusing anti-masker behavior. The only other thing I can think of is people that were toeing the party line back then getting upset by being (sort of) called out. I don't think anti-mask is a popular sentiment on HN, so I doubt that is driving the vote. But this isn't the first time I've seen downvotes on this topic. And it's not like HN loves authority or the biomedical research establishment in general.
  - wutbrodo 6y ago
    > It's decidedly pro-mask, although I guess if warped it could be read as excusing anti-masker behavior This is exactly it. Anti-maskers/anti-restrictionists seized on the stupidity of our early mask policy (and subsequent flip-flop to sanity) as evidence that restriction policy isn't in the interests of public health, but just a power grab by elites. Denying that this ever happened lets their simpleton counterparts stick to a simple narrative, where masks have always and obviously been a good idea and any deviation from the maximalist consensus needs to be crushed without any equivocation or weakness.[1] By contrast, the "war" right now is against vaccine hesitancy[2]. There are no Trumpists or other hated subcultures that are gung-ho on vaccines, so the J&J pause is interpreted simply as "scaring people away from vaccines" during a time when we need vaccines (this is unfortunately correct[3]) For a person infected with tribal-brain, consistency with reality is more or less irrelevant. HN is heavily-populated or at least influenced by subcultures (Bay Area, tech) that have been religiously adherent to the appearance of compliance and performative self-abnegation as a response to the pandemic (like a milder version of the Flagellants during the Black Death). [1] Hence also the ritualistic obsession with masking in places where it isn't necessary. My girlfriend gets uncomfortable that I often take my mask off outdoors when we're walking around, despite it being clear for almost a year that there's minimal risk from doing so, especially when walking swiftly (on top of that, we're both fully-vaccinated). She acknowledges this is irrational, but it's not too difficult to try to meet her in the middle and so I keep it on more often than I'd like. [2] Fascinatingly, US vaccine willingness now polls at ~61% while % vaccinated is 55%. We're effectively in the phase where demand is the challenge. [3] https://mobile.twitter.com/FT__Dan/status/1387531815464751108 https://mobile.twitter.com/FT__Dan/status/138753181546475110...