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Tesla has already lost marketshare in almost every market so they won't be bigger than Ford in 2 years. They will likely lose their regulatory credits some time

Tesla has already lost marketshare in almost every market so they won't be bigger than Ford in 2 years. They will likely lose their regulatory credits some time this year because VW, Audi, Porsche and Ford have strong offerings.

Reason077 5y ago
How does Tesla lose market share while achieving record (+ 109%) sales? The market certainly hasn’t been growing faster than Tesla has.
- bildung 5y ago
  Because the EV market grew much faster, e.g. +260% for Germany (from 108k in 2019 to 395k in 2020).
  - Reason077 5y ago
    Sure, but market share should be considered as a percentage of the overall car market, not just electric sales. It's unrealistic to expect that Tesla would continue to dominate the EV market forever. It is realistic to expect that Tesla will become a significant player in car sales globally.
    - bildung 5y ago
      > It's unrealistic to expect that Tesla would continue to dominate the EV market forever. It is realistic to expect that Tesla will become a significant player in car sales globally. How could Tesla become a significant player in the overall market without being much more significant in the EV market, which is a small subset of the former?
      - Reason077 5y ago
        EV sales are growing rapidly as a portion of the overall vehicle market, and will continue to do so. Eventually, virtually all vehicle sales will be electric. This will happen faster in some regions than in others.
    - ping_pong 5y ago
      What are you saying? How can Tesla be a significant player in car sales globally, when as a percentage of EV car sales, they are decreasing? Think about it for a second and it will come to you. As more cars turn EV, unless Tesla maintains their marketshare, they will become less and less significant. They've lost marketshare in the first year that the major car companies have introduced reasonable EVs. Their 2nd derivative is negative. Tesla is valued at 3X Toyota with having a fraction of the sales. What happens when the EV market becomes fully realized, but Tesla isn't the market leader but a small player. Do they still deserve to be 3X Toyota's market cap?
      - Reason077 5y ago
        > "As more cars turn EV, unless Tesla maintains their marketshare, they will become less and less significant." No, that's not neccessarily true at all. Let's imagine that in 2021, EVs are 2% of car sales globally, and Tesla has 50% of the EV market. That means that Tesla has 1% share of the entire car market. Now imagine that in 2031, EVs are 50% of car sales globally. And Tesla's share of the EV market has "shrunk" to 20%. But that's still 10% of the entire car market. Even assuming no market growth, that's an enormous 10X (1000%!) sales growth for Tesla over 10 years! Even though its share of the EV market has shrunk, Tesla is selling 10X more cars and is a far more significant company in 2031.
- yessql 5y ago
  When you define the market as electric vehicles instead of passenger vehicles. In Europe, the electric vehicle market is growing very fast. But all these EV sales come at the expense of gas/diesel sales, so I think it is a bad idea to consider EV's as a separate market.
nine_k 5y ago
If the market expands faster than your market share shrinks, your business still grows. Examples: IBM with IBM PC, Apple with iPhone.
- dagw 5y ago
  Examples: IBM with IBM PC And we all know how many IBM PCs IBM has sold over the past decade. I think that IBM might actually be the most apt analogy for Tesla. 20 years from now Tesla will be a niche player in the market they built basically from scratch.
  - tompccs 5y ago
    I mean, as a TSLA shareholder I'm...fine with that? A few years ago people were predicting the company would go bankrupt before they ever became profitable, now the bear scenario is that they become the largest company in their sector by a huge margin until settling into dominant complacency.
  - tonyedgecombe 5y ago
    I still think they will end up as a subsidiary of one of the laggards.
  - seunosewa 5y ago
    Why? Which companies will be the main players in that scenario?
    - dagw 5y ago
      VW, Toyota, Honda, Hyundai, Geely perhaps? Or some other Chinese company we haven't really heard of yet?. I don't see Tesla turning itself into the sort of company that can (or wants to) successfully compete in the top 5 carmakers by volume or revenue. I think they'll be happiest playing in the high performance niche and leave making the EV Corolas and Polos of the world to Toyota and VW All that being said, I'm far from confident enough in this prediction be to be actively betting against Tesla.
  - 5y ago

Reason077 5y ago

How does Tesla lose market share while achieving record (+ 109%) sales? The market certainly hasn’t been growing faster than Tesla has.

bildung 5y ago
Because the EV market grew much faster, e.g. +260% for Germany (from 108k in 2019 to 395k in 2020).
- Reason077 5y ago
  Sure, but market share should be considered as a percentage of the overall car market, not just electric sales. It's unrealistic to expect that Tesla would continue to dominate the EV market forever. It is realistic to expect that Tesla will become a significant player in car sales globally.
  - bildung 5y ago
    > It's unrealistic to expect that Tesla would continue to dominate the EV market forever. It is realistic to expect that Tesla will become a significant player in car sales globally. How could Tesla become a significant player in the overall market without being much more significant in the EV market, which is a small subset of the former?
    - Reason077 5y ago
      EV sales are growing rapidly as a portion of the overall vehicle market, and will continue to do so. Eventually, virtually all vehicle sales will be electric. This will happen faster in some regions than in others.
  - ping_pong 5y ago
    What are you saying? How can Tesla be a significant player in car sales globally, when as a percentage of EV car sales, they are decreasing? Think about it for a second and it will come to you. As more cars turn EV, unless Tesla maintains their marketshare, they will become less and less significant. They've lost marketshare in the first year that the major car companies have introduced reasonable EVs. Their 2nd derivative is negative. Tesla is valued at 3X Toyota with having a fraction of the sales. What happens when the EV market becomes fully realized, but Tesla isn't the market leader but a small player. Do they still deserve to be 3X Toyota's market cap?
    - Reason077 5y ago
      > "As more cars turn EV, unless Tesla maintains their marketshare, they will become less and less significant." No, that's not neccessarily true at all. Let's imagine that in 2021, EVs are 2% of car sales globally, and Tesla has 50% of the EV market. That means that Tesla has 1% share of the entire car market. Now imagine that in 2031, EVs are 50% of car sales globally. And Tesla's share of the EV market has "shrunk" to 20%. But that's still 10% of the entire car market. Even assuming no market growth, that's an enormous 10X (1000%!) sales growth for Tesla over 10 years! Even though its share of the EV market has shrunk, Tesla is selling 10X more cars and is a far more significant company in 2031.
yessql 5y ago
When you define the market as electric vehicles instead of passenger vehicles. In Europe, the electric vehicle market is growing very fast. But all these EV sales come at the expense of gas/diesel sales, so I think it is a bad idea to consider EV's as a separate market.

nine_k 5y ago

If the market expands faster than your market share shrinks, your business still grows. Examples: IBM with IBM PC, Apple with iPhone.

dagw 5y ago
Examples: IBM with IBM PC And we all know how many IBM PCs IBM has sold over the past decade. I think that IBM might actually be the most apt analogy for Tesla. 20 years from now Tesla will be a niche player in the market they built basically from scratch.
- tompccs 5y ago
  I mean, as a TSLA shareholder I'm...fine with that? A few years ago people were predicting the company would go bankrupt before they ever became profitable, now the bear scenario is that they become the largest company in their sector by a huge margin until settling into dominant complacency.
- tonyedgecombe 5y ago
  I still think they will end up as a subsidiary of one of the laggards.
- seunosewa 5y ago
  Why? Which companies will be the main players in that scenario?
  - dagw 5y ago
    VW, Toyota, Honda, Hyundai, Geely perhaps? Or some other Chinese company we haven't really heard of yet?. I don't see Tesla turning itself into the sort of company that can (or wants to) successfully compete in the top 5 carmakers by volume or revenue. I think they'll be happiest playing in the high performance niche and leave making the EV Corolas and Polos of the world to Toyota and VW All that being said, I'm far from confident enough in this prediction be to be actively betting against Tesla.
- 5y ago