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A few years ago I'd agree it would be a major EV setback but there are so many other options now I don't think that's the case any longer. I'm very optimistic

A few years ago I'd agree it would be a major EV setback but there are so many other options now I don't think that's the case any longer. I'm very optimistic about Rivian. It's Tesla but without the ego thinking they are smarter than 50 years of manufacturing lessons.

paranoidrobot 5y ago
I think that if Tesla were to go belly-up because of some sharemarket issue, that it'd be very easy for all the other manufacturers to back off their BEV plans. Not necessarily outright cancel them, but just not push for it and possibly let it fizzle somewhat. They'd have the excuse that "Well, Tesla failed, and they were more valuable than all of us combined at one point, so... we'll just be more cautious" One major issue is adoption. While there's a whole lot of people who want BEVs, price is still a major concern, as is infrastructure. Tesla make it dead simple with their supercharger network - find a charger, plug in, fast charging happens. The find a charger thing is integrated into the car, and often has feedback about what chargers are busy or unavailable. Unfortunately, outside of Europe and the UK, the BEV charging story is pretty terrible. Volkswagon, who arguably have the biggest incentive to make this work, have a pretty atrocious charging experience in the US, as demonstrated by Engineering Explained[1] with their latest and greatest model the 'ID.4' Europe and the UK have put down standards and basically forced some level of interoperation between charging network systems, which reduced friction for EV owners. The other issue is getting dealers onboard. If you're someone for whom an EV might make a whole lot of sense, there's approximately zero chance you're going to get recommended an EV, even if the dealer has one to sell you (either because the dealership dont' keep units to test-drive, or the manufacturer doesn't sell a BEV). Dealers hate them, because there's little to no after-sales servicing requirement. I've seen many stories about people basically having to argue or beg a dealer to let them buy or even order an EV. Perhaps Manufacturers could go with direct sales a-la Tesla, but there seems to still be a lot of political power left in the dealer networks, so that isn't necessarily going to be possible any time soon. What will convince me that EVs are here to stay is when dealerships are pushing BEVs right alongside their ICEs. [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EotuxCptcM4 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EotuxCptcM4
- yarcob 5y ago
  > Europe and the UK have put down standards and basically forced some level of interoperation between charging network systems, which reduced friction for EV owners. They standardized the connector, but the problem (at least in my area in Austria when I looked into it 2 years ago) was that there are so many competing charging networks with different contracts and pricing models that it was basically unusable. Near my house there were 3 chargers from different companies, each with space for two or three cars. If I wanted to use either of them, I would have to sign up with three networks, pay monthly fees for two of them, and have vastly different prices on each of the chargers. The fast charging prices were also so high that I'm not sure it's any cheaper than a gasoline car. I don't know if it's gotten any better since then, but as far as I could tell EVs only make sense if you can charge the car either at your home or at your workplace.
  - paranoidrobot 5y ago
    I was under the impression that all, or at least most, EV charging networks in the UK and EU allowed a PAYG model, where you tap your credit/debit card against the machine. > The fast charging prices were also so high that I'm not sure it's any cheaper than a gasoline car. While it being cheaper than gasoline is a nice perk, I think it's more important to get a wider deployment of fast charging infrastructure (and that is dead easy to use). Without massive deployments of charging infrastructure, it won't matter what it costs - people will not buy EVs if they've got no way to rapidly recharge. Governments should also be incentivising deployment of on-street charging infrastructure for areas where off-street parking is difficult or uncommon.
zarkov99 5y ago
No, its Tesla if Tesla could have seen the future and copied its playbook from itself. Rivian is emulating the Tesla strategy to a remarkable degree, which might make them a bit smarter than every other car company but does not make them a Tesla competitor, or even that interesting.
- carlivar 5y ago
  Tesla is still building cars in a tent, and with an alarming lack of quality assurance. Generally, Toyota Production System principles are available for anyone to use. Tesla has achieved a remarkable amount of things but manufacturing efficiency is not one of them.
giobox 5y ago
It would still be significant even today. While more good quality dedicated BEV platforms are (finally) coming to market in cars people can actually buy, with the exception of maybe the Nissan Leaf this has only really started in earnest recently with stuff like the new Ioniq 5 platform from Hyundai and VW’s MEB architecture etc in the last year. The next 5 years will see a big change for sure, but the legacy ICE automakers are still many years behind Tesla (often by their own admission - see VW CEO remarks on state of the VW groups car software platforms etc).
codazoda 5y ago
They drive the first two Rivian's in the Long Way Up documentary with Ewan McGregor and Charlie Boorman who ride early Harley Davidson Livewire motorcycles.

paranoidrobot 5y ago

I think that if Tesla were to go belly-up because of some sharemarket issue, that it'd be very easy for all the other manufacturers to back off their BEV plans. Not necessarily outright cancel them, but just not push for it and possibly let it fizzle somewhat. They'd have the excuse that "Well, Tesla failed, and they were more valuable than all of us combined at one point, so... we'll just be more cautious" One major issue is adoption. While there's a whole lot of people who want BEVs, price is still a major concern, as is infrastructure. Tesla make it dead simple with their supercharger network - find a charger, plug in, fast charging happens. The find a charger thing is integrated into the car, and often has feedback about what chargers are busy or unavailable. Unfortunately, outside of Europe and the UK, the BEV charging story is pretty terrible. Volkswagon, who arguably have the biggest incentive to make this work, have a pretty atrocious charging experience in the US, as demonstrated by Engineering Explained[1] with their latest and greatest model the 'ID.4' Europe and the UK have put down standards and basically forced some level of interoperation between charging network systems, which reduced friction for EV owners. The other issue is getting dealers onboard. If you're someone for whom an EV might make a whole lot of sense, there's approximately zero chance you're going to get recommended an EV, even if the dealer has one to sell you (either because the dealership dont' keep units to test-drive, or the manufacturer doesn't sell a BEV). Dealers hate them, because there's little to no after-sales servicing requirement. I've seen many stories about people basically having to argue or beg a dealer to let them buy or even order an EV. Perhaps Manufacturers could go with direct sales a-la Tesla, but there seems to still be a lot of political power left in the dealer networks, so that isn't necessarily going to be possible any time soon. What will convince me that EVs are here to stay is when dealerships are pushing BEVs right alongside their ICEs. [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EotuxCptcM4 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EotuxCptcM4

yarcob 5y ago
> Europe and the UK have put down standards and basically forced some level of interoperation between charging network systems, which reduced friction for EV owners. They standardized the connector, but the problem (at least in my area in Austria when I looked into it 2 years ago) was that there are so many competing charging networks with different contracts and pricing models that it was basically unusable. Near my house there were 3 chargers from different companies, each with space for two or three cars. If I wanted to use either of them, I would have to sign up with three networks, pay monthly fees for two of them, and have vastly different prices on each of the chargers. The fast charging prices were also so high that I'm not sure it's any cheaper than a gasoline car. I don't know if it's gotten any better since then, but as far as I could tell EVs only make sense if you can charge the car either at your home or at your workplace.
- paranoidrobot 5y ago
  I was under the impression that all, or at least most, EV charging networks in the UK and EU allowed a PAYG model, where you tap your credit/debit card against the machine. > The fast charging prices were also so high that I'm not sure it's any cheaper than a gasoline car. While it being cheaper than gasoline is a nice perk, I think it's more important to get a wider deployment of fast charging infrastructure (and that is dead easy to use). Without massive deployments of charging infrastructure, it won't matter what it costs - people will not buy EVs if they've got no way to rapidly recharge. Governments should also be incentivising deployment of on-street charging infrastructure for areas where off-street parking is difficult or uncommon.

zarkov99 5y ago

No, its Tesla if Tesla could have seen the future and copied its playbook from itself. Rivian is emulating the Tesla strategy to a remarkable degree, which might make them a bit smarter than every other car company but does not make them a Tesla competitor, or even that interesting.

carlivar 5y ago
Tesla is still building cars in a tent, and with an alarming lack of quality assurance. Generally, Toyota Production System principles are available for anyone to use. Tesla has achieved a remarkable amount of things but manufacturing efficiency is not one of them.

giobox 5y ago

It would still be significant even today. While more good quality dedicated BEV platforms are (finally) coming to market in cars people can actually buy, with the exception of maybe the Nissan Leaf this has only really started in earnest recently with stuff like the new Ioniq 5 platform from Hyundai and VW’s MEB architecture etc in the last year. The next 5 years will see a big change for sure, but the legacy ICE automakers are still many years behind Tesla (often by their own admission - see VW CEO remarks on state of the VW groups car software platforms etc).

codazoda 5y ago

They drive the first two Rivian's in the Long Way Up documentary with Ewan McGregor and Charlie Boorman who ride early Harley Davidson Livewire motorcycles.