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> A human being can drive a million miles without a serious accident A million miles sounds like a lot, but it isn't. The average American drives 12,000 miles
by jogjayr 5y ago
> A human being can drive a million miles without a serious accident
A million miles sounds like a lot, but it isn't. The average American drives 12,000 miles annually. Assuming a driving career of 52 years (from age 18 to 70), the average American will drive 624k miles. So the lifetime chances of getting into a serious accident are not exactly small.
(I don't know how to calculate the probability here, actually. Is 624k/1M the lifetime probability of getting into a serious accident?)
- netrus 5y agoJust to comment on the math (not the actual numbers): 624k/1M is the expected number of serious accidents. The probability of getting into at least one serious accident is 1 - (999999/1000000)^624000 = 46% (Every mile, you have a 99,9999% chance of no serious accident. You want that 624k times in a row).