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It's already been observed in countries with a low infection rate. In the second half of 2020 Australia's death rate was below average [1]. Some people died f

• deleted 6y ago
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• chrischen 6y ago
  Probably staying at home also reduced traffic accidents and other mobility related deaths.
  • kristofferR 6y ago
    Not traffic deaths, in the US at least (likely due to clear roads leaving people to drive riskier): https://apnews.com/article/pandemics-health-traffic-coronavirus-pandemic-799e455b73902b1638cc2ac46a172972 https://apnews.com/article/pandemics-health-traffic-coronavi...
    • galangalalgol 6y ago
      Here, people started driving much more aggressively the first day of shelter in place and never stopped.
• doctor_eval 6y ago
  Not disagreeing, but a downside of isolation turns out to have been that, now we are effectively Covid free here in Melbourne, hospitals are filling up due to (sometimes serious) other diseases, including cancer, that people left untreated during the various lockdowns. This is leading to very long ambulance waits at hospital entrances and lead to at least one death when an ambulance wasn’t available. (Sorry that I don’t have time to find a link right now) To be clear I fully support the government action in Victoria, life is pretty much back to normal here, and looking overseas it seems hard to believe how fortunate we are, but it was not without unexpected consequences.
  • atweiden 6y ago
    > but a downside of isolation turns out to have been that, now we are effectively Covid free here in Melbourne, hospitals are filling up due to (sometimes serious) other diseases, including cancer, that people left untreated during the various lockdowns. This could really use some additional context for non-Australians. Melbourne is the largest city in Victoria. The Premier of Victoria enacted interregional border closures during its several months-long lockdown. (This wasn’t unique to Victoria — Western Australia did the same thing at the start of the pandemic.) If hospitals are “filling up” now, that could be at least in part due to the logistics previously not allowing it. However, as someone who avoided getting stitches for a finger laceration due to fears of catching Covid in a medical facility, I’m convinced people avoided necessary medical procedures to reduce exposure risk primarily. Hence I’m not sure how much of this surge in delayed medical procedures is due to interregional border closures, and how much of it is due to the public’s fears of catching Covid having been assuaged by the successful Covid safety measures taken by the Victorian state government. Lockdowns have become one of the most politicized aspects of the pandemic. It’s really a shame they’re so unpopular amongst Americans: I think many there would happily subject themselves to 4 months of hard lockdown — in unison with generous unemployment support ofc — if it meant eradicating Covid completely in their local area.
    • Mediterraneo10 6y ago
      Resistance to the COVID approach you admire extends beyond the USA to also many in UK and Europe. The problem is that even if a hard lockdown works and COVID is completely eradicated in one’s local area, that means that the borders have to stay closed lest new cases be imported. But many people have families or lovers across borders, they might even commute or do common shopping cross-border, and the lower and middle classes cannot afford the expensive hotel quarantine required. Tourism-based economies need travelers bringing all that money in. (One might think that borders would only have to stay closed until local vaccination has been rolled out. However, several of the scientific advisors recommending the "zero COVID" approach à la Oz and NZ, also want borders closed – except for strict hotel quarantine – for some years into the future to prevent variants from arising, or even in perpetuity to prevent the next pandemic from ever starting.)