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Not surprisingly it takes a lot of capital to make serious in-roads into self-driving. Ultimately if your main business is not profitable it is hard to justify

Not surprisingly it takes a lot of capital to make serious in-roads into self-driving. Ultimately if your main business is not profitable it is hard to justify spending 100m a year on L5 with no reasonable end in sight. I think this is why only Waymo or Cruise or one of the other well-funded-by-profitable-other-business will continue to progress towards the true self-driving vehicle... its just too damn expensive and uncertain as to when the breakthrough/development will happen

gher-shyu3i 5y ago
What will happen afterward? They'll get acquired by Uber or something?
- darkwizard42 5y ago
  I think Lyft's core ridesharing business will continue to become more profitable in a duopoly setting with Uber. Ridesharing is a network effect business, if the riders are there, the drivers will come, the more drivers you have, the more availability so you get more riders. The US has proven that it is capable of supporting two overlapping players (not all markets can support this and meet regulatory rules)
  - ramraj07 5y ago
    You’re assuming ridesharing in the way Lyft and Uber do it will last for long.. not a single place I’ve seen anyone confirm that it’s profitable or break even for the drivers. Almost no one drives for years with them, and they’re bound to run out of drivers who haven’t learned the lessons. Or their prices jack up to more than regular cab prices like in nyc. One way or another it’s a non zero possibility these companies won’t survive in the same shape.
    - darkwizard42 5y ago
      I don't think this is accurate at all. 1/ It is profitable/break even to the best drivers (this means you have to optimize and consider the external costs of doing the work... which unsurprisingly most people are bad at doing so). There are certainly cases of people who have leased a brand new car, with poor gas mileage, and then drive them into the ground surprised it hasn't paid off. However, using a Prius or all-electric vehicle with high reliability results in lower costs. If you run a business and poorly optimize around your costs you don't make profit... 2/ Drivers do drive for years for them, but the vast majority do not because it is not a great long term career and usually serves as a bridge of full-time work or regular part-time work. You can't get promoted, you can't get paid much more for tenure, and you don't pick up any new marketable skills. Even a career warehouse worker or McDonald's front-line worker has a path upwards...and people do work there for short and long periods of time. Just because everyone isn't a long term employee doesn't make a profession unsustainable...its just the nature of the job. The last statement is pure conjecture so I'm not sure how to address it outside of the fact that in an urban setting car ownership comes with a lot of costs and these services expand the radius of people's ability to navigate cities. There will be a premium for that and Lyft and Uber are working their way towards providing that service AND generating a profit.
- danielmeskin 5y ago
  Probably the opposite, instant massive userbase, then just slowly phase out the meat bags.

gher-shyu3i 5y ago

What will happen afterward? They'll get acquired by Uber or something?

darkwizard42 5y ago
I think Lyft's core ridesharing business will continue to become more profitable in a duopoly setting with Uber. Ridesharing is a network effect business, if the riders are there, the drivers will come, the more drivers you have, the more availability so you get more riders. The US has proven that it is capable of supporting two overlapping players (not all markets can support this and meet regulatory rules)
- ramraj07 5y ago
  You’re assuming ridesharing in the way Lyft and Uber do it will last for long.. not a single place I’ve seen anyone confirm that it’s profitable or break even for the drivers. Almost no one drives for years with them, and they’re bound to run out of drivers who haven’t learned the lessons. Or their prices jack up to more than regular cab prices like in nyc. One way or another it’s a non zero possibility these companies won’t survive in the same shape.
  - darkwizard42 5y ago
    I don't think this is accurate at all. 1/ It is profitable/break even to the best drivers (this means you have to optimize and consider the external costs of doing the work... which unsurprisingly most people are bad at doing so). There are certainly cases of people who have leased a brand new car, with poor gas mileage, and then drive them into the ground surprised it hasn't paid off. However, using a Prius or all-electric vehicle with high reliability results in lower costs. If you run a business and poorly optimize around your costs you don't make profit... 2/ Drivers do drive for years for them, but the vast majority do not because it is not a great long term career and usually serves as a bridge of full-time work or regular part-time work. You can't get promoted, you can't get paid much more for tenure, and you don't pick up any new marketable skills. Even a career warehouse worker or McDonald's front-line worker has a path upwards...and people do work there for short and long periods of time. Just because everyone isn't a long term employee doesn't make a profession unsustainable...its just the nature of the job. The last statement is pure conjecture so I'm not sure how to address it outside of the fact that in an urban setting car ownership comes with a lot of costs and these services expand the radius of people's ability to navigate cities. There will be a premium for that and Lyft and Uber are working their way towards providing that service AND generating a profit.
danielmeskin 5y ago
Probably the opposite, instant massive userbase, then just slowly phase out the meat bags.