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If the bar is "better than someone talking on cell phone while crossing a railroad crossing without looking," I'll stick to manual driving. Self driving needs

If the bar is "better than someone talking on cell phone while crossing a railroad crossing without looking," I'll stick to manual driving. Self driving needs to be better than me, not better than average.

legolas2412 5y ago
Hell, it needs to be better than you with a "train is coming, I'm going to slow down" driver assistance. If you tell me that no such driver assistance exists, just apply it to scenarios where it exists, like lane keep assists and automatic emergency assists
andy81 5y ago
Not a problem if you only sell to the bottom 50% of drivers.
- alexanderchr 5y ago
  Only a small minority of drivers consider themselves to be in the bottom 50% of drivers, so you might have trouble with that strategy.
2muchcoffeeman 5y ago
It would be interesting to put a black box in a car tied to the driver. Anyone who shows patterns of driving worse than average gets a self driving car. If you are better than average you can keep your dumb car.
okareaman 5y ago
How many people on Hacker News think self-driving cars will be a better driver than themselves in the near future?
- admax88q 5y ago
  I'm sure almost nobody even outside HN thinks that self driving cars will be better than themselves. Everybody thinks they're above average drivers. That's a psychological problem that self-driving cars will have to overcome. They need to be so obviously better than any human driver for people to actually consider them. A handful of fatal accidents that people think they could have avoided as a driver and they won't want to get on board. People are bad at risk assessment, but that's a fact of life. As a result, self driving has to be better than what people _perceive_ as their risk of being in an accident while driving, not what the actual risk may be.
- tristor 5y ago
  Honestly, I don't think self-driving cars will /ever/ be a better driver than I am. But that also hinges on what you mean by "better". There may reach a point in time when self-driving cars have a lower statistical likelihood of being in an accident than I am, but I doubt that they will ever do that while getting me to my destination more quickly than I do. Both of those things relate to the fact that I have significantly better situational awareness and driver training than the vast majority of people, including significant time on track racing cars. To match my situational awareness it will not be enough for self-driving cars to rely on their own sensors, but they will need to communicate with one another and act in concert, otherwise my reading of traffic patterns and looking far ahead in the distance will always beat it out for the quickest path through traffic, or the safest response. To me, where I see a benefit for myself personally, is that self-driving cars don't necessarily need to be better than me, they just need to be better than most, and turn driving from an active to a passive activity. It means I can be engaged in other things. But, that's also the rub. I /like/ driving, so I don't want to exist in a world where I am /forced/ to have a self-driving car to use the roads, as I still want the ability to go out and enjoy myself from time to time. But for a daily commute, turning driving into a passive activity would make me a happier and more productive person (other people are horrendous drivers and it frustrates me observing their unsafe and careless behaviors).
- cameronh90 5y ago
  Probably me. Waymo may already be in most situations. I drive about once or twice a year, always in a rental, and consequently never really know how well my car handles or its dimensions. That, plus generally being rusty, tends to make me fairly nervous. Yet, nevertheless, I am in charge of a 2000kg block of metal hurtling around pedestrians and cyclists at 70mph. Scares the shit out of me, to be honest.
  - ghaff 5y ago
    What are your circumstances where you simply couldn't get a driver? If I could at all afford it, I would in that case same as I do in very remote 4WD territory.
    - cameronh90 5y ago
      I don't own a car, so I only ever really drive on holiday... or in extreme situations. The last time I drove was taking my rabbit to the vet at 2AM on X-mas day, where the vet said due to Covid I would have to wait outside. Not really practical when the temperature is below zero, so I used Zipcar! Besides that, mainly if I'm going somewhere for a week with poor public transport and high distances to cover (impractical to cycle/walk).
Hydraulix989 5y ago
Does the average driver even look both ways at the railroad crossing? I do every single time. Such a low-cost preventative measure that could very well end up saving my life one day.
- heavyset_go 5y ago
  At least where I learned to drive, not only was stopping to look both ways at railroad crossings taught in driving classes at school, it was part of the written test to get a permit/license, as well.

legolas2412 5y ago

Hell, it needs to be better than you with a "train is coming, I'm going to slow down" driver assistance. If you tell me that no such driver assistance exists, just apply it to scenarios where it exists, like lane keep assists and automatic emergency assists

andy81 5y ago

Not a problem if you only sell to the bottom 50% of drivers.

alexanderchr 5y ago
Only a small minority of drivers consider themselves to be in the bottom 50% of drivers, so you might have trouble with that strategy.

2muchcoffeeman 5y ago

It would be interesting to put a black box in a car tied to the driver. Anyone who shows patterns of driving worse than average gets a self driving car. If you are better than average you can keep your dumb car.

okareaman 5y ago

How many people on Hacker News think self-driving cars will be a better driver than themselves in the near future?

admax88q 5y ago
I'm sure almost nobody even outside HN thinks that self driving cars will be better than themselves. Everybody thinks they're above average drivers. That's a psychological problem that self-driving cars will have to overcome. They need to be so obviously better than any human driver for people to actually consider them. A handful of fatal accidents that people think they could have avoided as a driver and they won't want to get on board. People are bad at risk assessment, but that's a fact of life. As a result, self driving has to be better than what people _perceive_ as their risk of being in an accident while driving, not what the actual risk may be.
tristor 5y ago
Honestly, I don't think self-driving cars will /ever/ be a better driver than I am. But that also hinges on what you mean by "better". There may reach a point in time when self-driving cars have a lower statistical likelihood of being in an accident than I am, but I doubt that they will ever do that while getting me to my destination more quickly than I do. Both of those things relate to the fact that I have significantly better situational awareness and driver training than the vast majority of people, including significant time on track racing cars. To match my situational awareness it will not be enough for self-driving cars to rely on their own sensors, but they will need to communicate with one another and act in concert, otherwise my reading of traffic patterns and looking far ahead in the distance will always beat it out for the quickest path through traffic, or the safest response. To me, where I see a benefit for myself personally, is that self-driving cars don't necessarily need to be better than me, they just need to be better than most, and turn driving from an active to a passive activity. It means I can be engaged in other things. But, that's also the rub. I /like/ driving, so I don't want to exist in a world where I am /forced/ to have a self-driving car to use the roads, as I still want the ability to go out and enjoy myself from time to time. But for a daily commute, turning driving into a passive activity would make me a happier and more productive person (other people are horrendous drivers and it frustrates me observing their unsafe and careless behaviors).
cameronh90 5y ago
Probably me. Waymo may already be in most situations. I drive about once or twice a year, always in a rental, and consequently never really know how well my car handles or its dimensions. That, plus generally being rusty, tends to make me fairly nervous. Yet, nevertheless, I am in charge of a 2000kg block of metal hurtling around pedestrians and cyclists at 70mph. Scares the shit out of me, to be honest.
- ghaff 5y ago
  What are your circumstances where you simply couldn't get a driver? If I could at all afford it, I would in that case same as I do in very remote 4WD territory.
  - cameronh90 5y ago
    I don't own a car, so I only ever really drive on holiday... or in extreme situations. The last time I drove was taking my rabbit to the vet at 2AM on X-mas day, where the vet said due to Covid I would have to wait outside. Not really practical when the temperature is below zero, so I used Zipcar! Besides that, mainly if I'm going somewhere for a week with poor public transport and high distances to cover (impractical to cycle/walk).

Hydraulix989 5y ago

Does the average driver even look both ways at the railroad crossing? I do every single time. Such a low-cost preventative measure that could very well end up saving my life one day.

heavyset_go 5y ago
At least where I learned to drive, not only was stopping to look both ways at railroad crossings taught in driving classes at school, it was part of the written test to get a permit/license, as well.