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I don't think Tesla will have L5 in 2021, but the FSD videos on youtube are pretty impressive no ?

Philip-J-Fry 6y ago
They're impressive when they're on a straight road. But I think it's very concerning just how noisy and low resolution the data the cameras are working with is. You can watch some of the videos and the car won't recognise other traffic until it's literally within 20 meters of the car. The 3D positions of the cars are jumping around constantly. It will get the speed of traffic wrong and try to turn straight in front of someone that would cause an accident. Yes it's Beta but it's still a huge huge huge way behind what Elon claimed it would be by now. And he's doubled down on the current hardware being all that's required. I am 100% unconvinced that Tesla can get anywhere with their current system. I don't see how their low resolution cameras can get the necessary information for Level 5 autonomy. It almost feels like a reckless brute force approach to the problem. "Just let AI figure it out". Every autonomous vehicle company is going to be using some sort of machine learning but they're going to be feeding in huge amounts of data. Waymo for example is using multiple LIDAR scanners to build up an accurate 3D model of the world surrounding the car. That's what you need. Not what is effectively guesswork by an AI. We still don't have truly reliable face detection even after decades of research and we're supposed to believe that a car can reliably drive itself on shitty low resolution cameras alone.
- misiti3780 6y ago
  I agree with most of this. I would be happy of Tesla (or anyone else) could just achieve L5 on highways so I could read a book on long drives on say the I90 in NY or I95 going to Florida. That seems like a problem that could be solved with their current sensors.
dawnerd 6y ago
Yes, they are but also a lot are sped up. The videos that are raw show the car still struggling to see around corners since the cameras are just not in a good enough spot. They really should have put cameras on the very front corners. But TBH I'm not really THAT impressed it can take corners and follow more lines. It still doesn't handle very important edge cases, and the people testing and uploading videos are naturally biased to show how good it is to push their referral codes. I'm not anti-Tesla, I love my M3, but we need to be realistic about the future of what these particular cars can do. They're never going to be L5 with the current sensor suite - and they're certainly never going to be robo taxies. Who really wants that anyways? Last thing I want is some drunk bros to destroy my car and have to deal with Tesla support.
- misiti3780 6y ago
  I agree, I would not loan my car out to be a robo taxi. As it currently stands, the people that can afford Teslas probably would not take the risk of damage to their cars for the extra income.
itsoktocry 6y ago
They are impressive for what they are, yes, because it's a hard problem. But it's non stop interventions...

They're impressive when they're on a straight road. But I think it's very concerning just how noisy and low resolution the data the cameras are working with is. You can watch some of the videos and the car won't recognise other traffic until it's literally within 20 meters of the car. The 3D positions of the cars are jumping around constantly. It will get the speed of traffic wrong and try to turn straight in front of someone that would cause an accident. Yes it's Beta but it's still a huge huge huge way behind what Elon claimed it would be by now. And he's doubled down on the current hardware being all that's required. I am 100% unconvinced that Tesla can get anywhere with their current system. I don't see how their low resolution cameras can get the necessary information for Level 5 autonomy. It almost feels like a reckless brute force approach to the problem. "Just let AI figure it out". Every autonomous vehicle company is going to be using some sort of machine learning but they're going to be feeding in huge amounts of data. Waymo for example is using multiple LIDAR scanners to build up an accurate 3D model of the world surrounding the car. That's what you need. Not what is effectively guesswork by an AI. We still don't have truly reliable face detection even after decades of research and we're supposed to believe that a car can reliably drive itself on shitty low resolution cameras alone.

misiti3780 6y ago
I agree with most of this. I would be happy of Tesla (or anyone else) could just achieve L5 on highways so I could read a book on long drives on say the I90 in NY or I95 going to Florida. That seems like a problem that could be solved with their current sensors.

dawnerd 6y ago

Yes, they are but also a lot are sped up. The videos that are raw show the car still struggling to see around corners since the cameras are just not in a good enough spot. They really should have put cameras on the very front corners. But TBH I'm not really THAT impressed it can take corners and follow more lines. It still doesn't handle very important edge cases, and the people testing and uploading videos are naturally biased to show how good it is to push their referral codes. I'm not anti-Tesla, I love my M3, but we need to be realistic about the future of what these particular cars can do. They're never going to be L5 with the current sensor suite - and they're certainly never going to be robo taxies. Who really wants that anyways? Last thing I want is some drunk bros to destroy my car and have to deal with Tesla support.

misiti3780 6y ago
I agree, I would not loan my car out to be a robo taxi. As it currently stands, the people that can afford Teslas probably would not take the risk of damage to their cars for the extra income.

itsoktocry 6y ago

They are impressive for what they are, yes, because it's a hard problem. But it's non stop interventions...