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Do you have a link to Elon's FSD claim? He definitely uses ambiguity to his benefit (eg "soon", "by fall/winter/spring/summer" (in which year?)), but I haven't

Do you have a link to Elon's FSD claim? He definitely uses ambiguity to his benefit (eg "soon", "by fall/winter/spring/summer" (in which year?)), but I haven't heard anything about Tesla being L5 by the end of 2021.

bildung 5y ago
> Do you have a link to Elon's FSD claim? Musk said he's 'confident' reaching l5 autonomy by end of 2021 in the Q4 earnings call, which is on youtube.
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
LightG 5y ago
Even if I don't want to, I can't help but keep up with his marketing-claims through the interests I have. My take, being aware of him but not focused, is that beta-FSD has already been released! ... I mean ... what? Maybe I've got it wrong.
- omgwtfbyobbq 5y ago
  It's been released to a small number of people, but... beta-FSD isn't level five. The only specific statement I've read from him is that the basic functionality for level five will be available this year. What's interesting to me is that people seem to attribute what news articles synthesize about his statements as statements made by him. https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-53349313 https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-53349313
  - LightG 5y ago
    But you see how he/they should be clearer about it? To me, FSD is ... FSD ... what's FSD if it isn't level 5? Sorry, to Elon fans (and I appreciate Tesla), but it's nonsense and people are fools to put up with it, let alone pay $10k or whatever it is for the "opportunity" to have it later.
    - omgwtfbyobbq 5y ago
      They could, but that's the nature of sales, and language to some degree. I drive on a parkway and park on a driveway. As for the specifics, it's what's described on the Tesla website.
  - drzaiusapelord 5y ago
    >news articles synthesize about his statements as statements made by him Musk promised the coast to coast drive in 2017: https://www.theverge.com/2016/10/19/13341100/tesla-self-driving-autonomous-road-trip-la-nyc https://www.theverge.com/2016/10/19/13341100/tesla-self-driv... Then admitted he couldn't do it in 2017: https://www.autonews.com/article/20180208/MOBILITY/180209770/musk-says-tesla-s-autonomous-la-to-nyc-trip-still-coming https://www.autonews.com/article/20180208/MOBILITY/180209770... This isn't the media delivering a dishonest commentary. These are his words.
    - omgwtfbyobbq 5y ago
      I'm referring to my initial post in this thread. But yeah, we can have both. Those were his words in that situation, and he was called out for it. In this situation, the media is delivering dishonest commentary, and trying to call him out for their commentary.
  - quickthrowman 5y ago
    He made the claim in the Q4 2020 Tesla earnings call in Jan 2021, here is a transcript: https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2021/01/27/tesla-tsla-q4-2020-earnings-call-transcript/ https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2021/01/27/te...
mandeepj 5y ago
> Do you have a link to Elon's FSD claim? Google is universally accessible to everyone. Please don't be that guy who corners himself into a blind spot. Musk claimed coast to coast self-driving trip by end of 2017. https://www.theverge.com/2016/10/19/13341100/tesla-self-driving-autonomous-road-trip-la-nyc https://www.theverge.com/2016/10/19/13341100/tesla-self-driv...
- omgwtfbyobbq 5y ago
  I've searched, but I haven't found any comment from Musk about level five being ready by 2021. edit - The closest is about the basic functionality for it being ready by the end of the year (see above).
  - detaro 5y ago
    end of last year.
heymijo 5y ago
This feels like bad faith. Musk has been making these claims every year since 2016. His coverage of these claims on HN is regular and thorough. I went ahead and Googled one for you from 2020: Tesla will be able to make its vehicles completely autonomous by the end of this year, founder Elon Musk has said. It was already "very close" to achieving the basic requirements of this "level-five" autonomy, which requires no driver input, he said. - July 2020 https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-53349313 https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-53349313
- omgwtfbyobbq 5y ago
  Do you mean this comment? I remain confident that we will have the basic functionality for level five autonomy complete this year. Basic functionality for level five isn't level five.
  - legolas2412 5y ago
    "Basic functionality for level five isn't level five." I'm surprised you say this totally seriously. For me this means that level 5 will be this year, and then there might be extra new cool features, which are not necessary. Basic functionality for level 5 sounds like both necessary and sufficient to me
    - omgwtfbyobbq 5y ago
      I view part of basic functionality of level five as "Can the car drive on all roads in at least some circumstances?" That's still not sufficient, because it needs to do that in all circumstances (vehicles, people, animals, stuff, weather, etc), but even if it can handle all the circumstances (also basic functionality), if it can't at least all roads, then it's not level five. Right now, it's level two, and it's IMO going to be level two for a while. People can ask about level five, but I take any statements about Tesla's current autopilot and/or beta as statements about the level two system. People can assume that those statements are about some future level five system, but I don't think that's an accurate assumption unless someone from Tesla says autopilot and/or the beta is now level three, four, etc...
bidirectional 5y ago
If someone says by "fall/winter/spring/summer" and they don't mean the immediate upcoming instance of that season, they are lying. That is not being cleverly ambiguous, it is pure dishonesty.
- omgwtfbyobbq 5y ago
  They could also be wrong. I think the assumption that it's a specifically lie else really highlights where these ideas are coming from.
detaro 5y ago
2020 Q4 Earnings call, 27th Jan 2021 (according to https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2021/01/27/tesla-tsla-q4-2020-earnings-call-transcript/ https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2021/01/27/te... ) Musk: So -- and this is -- basically I'm highly confident the car will drive itself for the reliability in excess of a human this year. [...] <later> Director of Investor Relations: [...] The next question is, why are you confident Tesla will achieve Level 5 autonomy in 2021? [...] Musk: I guess, I'm confident based on my understanding of the technical roadmap and the progress that we're making between each beta iteration.
- omgwtfbyobbq 5y ago
  Saying he's confident about each beta iteration, and the FSD beta is currently level two, is not the same as saying Tesla will hit level five by the end of the year.
  - detaro 5y ago
    He is explicitly asked by the person feeding him question why he is confident that they will reach level five this year. He is confirming that he is confident they will reach level five this year. Not confident that they will improve, confident they will reach level five.
    - omgwtfbyobbq 5y ago
      He was asked that question, but he didn't say he was confident they would reach level five this year. He did refer to the current FSD beta, which is a level two system, and expressed confidence in the technical roadmap and progress they are making between each beta iteration. Then he talked about the level of reliability they would need, capabilities of the system, and challenges they have. I guess, I'm confident based on my understanding of the technical roadmap and the progress that we're making between each beta iteration. Yes. As I'm saying, it's not remarkable at all for the car to completely drive you from one location to another through a series of complex intersections. It's now about just improving the corner case reliability and getting it to 99.9999% reliable with respect to an accident. Basically, we need to get it to better than human bio factor at least 100% or 200%. And the business happening rapidly because we've got so much training data with all the cars in the field. And the software is improving dramatically. The -- we also write the software for labeling. And I'll say it's quite challenging. We're moving everything toward video labeling. So all video labeling for video inference and so there are still a few of new met that need to be upgraded to video training inference. And really, as we transition to each net to video, the performances become exceptional. So this is like a hot thing. The video -- the labeling software that we work for, video labeling, making that better has a huge effect on the efficiency of labeling. And then, of course, the Holy Grail is auto labeling. So we're -- we put a lot of work into having the labeling tool to be more efficient when we used, as well as enabling auto labeling where we can.Dojo is a training supercomputer. We believe it will be -- we think it may be the best neural net training computer in the world by possibly an order of magnitude. So it is a whole thing in and of itself. And this is offer potentially as a service. So some of the others need neural net training, we're not trying to keep it to ourselves. So I think there could be a whole line of business in and of itself. And then, of course, for training vast amounts video data and getting the reliability from 100% to 200% better than average human to 2,000% better than average human. So that will be very helpful in that regard. https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2021/01/27/tesla-tsla-q4-2020-earnings-call-transcript/ https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2021/01/27/te...
quickthrowman 5y ago
He made the claim during the Q4 2020 earnings call for Tesla in January 2021: https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2021/01/27/tesla-tsla-q4-2020-earnings-call-transcript/ https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2021/01/27/te... An investor asks “Why are you confident in L5 self-driving before the end of 2021?” and Elon goes on to explain why he is confident that Tesla will achieve L5 self-driving by the end of 2021.

bildung 5y ago

> Do you have a link to Elon's FSD claim? Musk said he's 'confident' reaching l5 autonomy by end of 2021 in the Q4 earnings call, which is on youtube.

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]

LightG 5y ago

Even if I don't want to, I can't help but keep up with his marketing-claims through the interests I have. My take, being aware of him but not focused, is that beta-FSD has already been released! ... I mean ... what? Maybe I've got it wrong.

omgwtfbyobbq 5y ago
It's been released to a small number of people, but... beta-FSD isn't level five. The only specific statement I've read from him is that the basic functionality for level five will be available this year. What's interesting to me is that people seem to attribute what news articles synthesize about his statements as statements made by him. https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-53349313 https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-53349313
- LightG 5y ago
  But you see how he/they should be clearer about it? To me, FSD is ... FSD ... what's FSD if it isn't level 5? Sorry, to Elon fans (and I appreciate Tesla), but it's nonsense and people are fools to put up with it, let alone pay $10k or whatever it is for the "opportunity" to have it later.
  - omgwtfbyobbq 5y ago
    They could, but that's the nature of sales, and language to some degree. I drive on a parkway and park on a driveway. As for the specifics, it's what's described on the Tesla website.
- drzaiusapelord 5y ago
  >news articles synthesize about his statements as statements made by him Musk promised the coast to coast drive in 2017: https://www.theverge.com/2016/10/19/13341100/tesla-self-driving-autonomous-road-trip-la-nyc https://www.theverge.com/2016/10/19/13341100/tesla-self-driv... Then admitted he couldn't do it in 2017: https://www.autonews.com/article/20180208/MOBILITY/180209770/musk-says-tesla-s-autonomous-la-to-nyc-trip-still-coming https://www.autonews.com/article/20180208/MOBILITY/180209770... This isn't the media delivering a dishonest commentary. These are his words.
  - omgwtfbyobbq 5y ago
    I'm referring to my initial post in this thread. But yeah, we can have both. Those were his words in that situation, and he was called out for it. In this situation, the media is delivering dishonest commentary, and trying to call him out for their commentary.
- quickthrowman 5y ago
  He made the claim in the Q4 2020 Tesla earnings call in Jan 2021, here is a transcript: https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2021/01/27/tesla-tsla-q4-2020-earnings-call-transcript/ https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2021/01/27/te...

mandeepj 5y ago

> Do you have a link to Elon's FSD claim? Google is universally accessible to everyone. Please don't be that guy who corners himself into a blind spot. Musk claimed coast to coast self-driving trip by end of 2017. https://www.theverge.com/2016/10/19/13341100/tesla-self-driving-autonomous-road-trip-la-nyc https://www.theverge.com/2016/10/19/13341100/tesla-self-driv...

omgwtfbyobbq 5y ago
I've searched, but I haven't found any comment from Musk about level five being ready by 2021. edit - The closest is about the basic functionality for it being ready by the end of the year (see above).
- detaro 5y ago
  end of last year.

heymijo 5y ago

This feels like bad faith. Musk has been making these claims every year since 2016. His coverage of these claims on HN is regular and thorough. I went ahead and Googled one for you from 2020: Tesla will be able to make its vehicles completely autonomous by the end of this year, founder Elon Musk has said. It was already "very close" to achieving the basic requirements of this "level-five" autonomy, which requires no driver input, he said. - July 2020 https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-53349313 https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-53349313

omgwtfbyobbq 5y ago
Do you mean this comment? I remain confident that we will have the basic functionality for level five autonomy complete this year. Basic functionality for level five isn't level five.
- legolas2412 5y ago
  "Basic functionality for level five isn't level five." I'm surprised you say this totally seriously. For me this means that level 5 will be this year, and then there might be extra new cool features, which are not necessary. Basic functionality for level 5 sounds like both necessary and sufficient to me
  - omgwtfbyobbq 5y ago
    I view part of basic functionality of level five as "Can the car drive on all roads in at least some circumstances?" That's still not sufficient, because it needs to do that in all circumstances (vehicles, people, animals, stuff, weather, etc), but even if it can handle all the circumstances (also basic functionality), if it can't at least all roads, then it's not level five. Right now, it's level two, and it's IMO going to be level two for a while. People can ask about level five, but I take any statements about Tesla's current autopilot and/or beta as statements about the level two system. People can assume that those statements are about some future level five system, but I don't think that's an accurate assumption unless someone from Tesla says autopilot and/or the beta is now level three, four, etc...

bidirectional 5y ago

If someone says by "fall/winter/spring/summer" and they don't mean the immediate upcoming instance of that season, they are lying. That is not being cleverly ambiguous, it is pure dishonesty.

omgwtfbyobbq 5y ago
They could also be wrong. I think the assumption that it's a specifically lie else really highlights where these ideas are coming from.

detaro 5y ago

2020 Q4 Earnings call, 27th Jan 2021 (according to https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2021/01/27/tesla-tsla-q4-2020-earnings-call-transcript/ https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2021/01/27/te... ) Musk: So -- and this is -- basically I'm highly confident the car will drive itself for the reliability in excess of a human this year. [...] <later> Director of Investor Relations: [...] The next question is, why are you confident Tesla will achieve Level 5 autonomy in 2021? [...] Musk: I guess, I'm confident based on my understanding of the technical roadmap and the progress that we're making between each beta iteration.

omgwtfbyobbq 5y ago
Saying he's confident about each beta iteration, and the FSD beta is currently level two, is not the same as saying Tesla will hit level five by the end of the year.
- detaro 5y ago
  He is explicitly asked by the person feeding him question why he is confident that they will reach level five this year. He is confirming that he is confident they will reach level five this year. Not confident that they will improve, confident they will reach level five.
  - omgwtfbyobbq 5y ago
    He was asked that question, but he didn't say he was confident they would reach level five this year. He did refer to the current FSD beta, which is a level two system, and expressed confidence in the technical roadmap and progress they are making between each beta iteration. Then he talked about the level of reliability they would need, capabilities of the system, and challenges they have. I guess, I'm confident based on my understanding of the technical roadmap and the progress that we're making between each beta iteration. Yes. As I'm saying, it's not remarkable at all for the car to completely drive you from one location to another through a series of complex intersections. It's now about just improving the corner case reliability and getting it to 99.9999% reliable with respect to an accident. Basically, we need to get it to better than human bio factor at least 100% or 200%. And the business happening rapidly because we've got so much training data with all the cars in the field. And the software is improving dramatically. The -- we also write the software for labeling. And I'll say it's quite challenging. We're moving everything toward video labeling. So all video labeling for video inference and so there are still a few of new met that need to be upgraded to video training inference. And really, as we transition to each net to video, the performances become exceptional. So this is like a hot thing. The video -- the labeling software that we work for, video labeling, making that better has a huge effect on the efficiency of labeling. And then, of course, the Holy Grail is auto labeling. So we're -- we put a lot of work into having the labeling tool to be more efficient when we used, as well as enabling auto labeling where we can.Dojo is a training supercomputer. We believe it will be -- we think it may be the best neural net training computer in the world by possibly an order of magnitude. So it is a whole thing in and of itself. And this is offer potentially as a service. So some of the others need neural net training, we're not trying to keep it to ourselves. So I think there could be a whole line of business in and of itself. And then, of course, for training vast amounts video data and getting the reliability from 100% to 200% better than average human to 2,000% better than average human. So that will be very helpful in that regard. https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2021/01/27/tesla-tsla-q4-2020-earnings-call-transcript/ https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2021/01/27/te...

quickthrowman 5y ago

He made the claim during the Q4 2020 earnings call for Tesla in January 2021: https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2021/01/27/tesla-tsla-q4-2020-earnings-call-transcript/ https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2021/01/27/te... An investor asks “Why are you confident in L5 self-driving before the end of 2021?” and Elon goes on to explain why he is confident that Tesla will achieve L5 self-driving by the end of 2021.