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SpaceX’s Spacecraft Just Had a Near Collision with an Unidentified Object
- Someone 6y agoRough math (which I think gives a decent approximation): assuming both items were 10 × 10 meters cross-section would mean it had to pass within 20 meters to hit it. 45km/20m = 2,250, so the probability that an object getting within 45km would hit would be about 1:2,250² or about one in 5 million. Dragon 2 is a bit smaller than that 10 × 10 meter, and the unidentifiable object can’t have been big either, as we would have seen it earlier if it were, so I think that can’t be a huge underestimation.