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Earnings beat but I wonder how this whole mega-growth story keeps being reiterated now despite flat revenue for 3 years. Don't get me wrong, I love Tesla and wh

Earnings beat but I wonder how this whole mega-growth story keeps being reiterated now despite flat revenue for 3 years. Don't get me wrong, I love Tesla and what they are doing for accelerating the transition to sustainable energy. That company is just priced to perfection.

DarmokJalad1701 5y ago
> flat revenue for 3 years ??? 2018 - $21.5B 2019 - $24.5B 2020 - $31.5B 2021 (annualized) - probably $35-$40 B
- grey-area 5y ago
  That’s pretty flat compared to the share valuation.
  - FuckButtons 5y ago
    It’s still 30% annual growth.
  - nickik 5y ago
    Before that Period Tesla had low share growth, after 2017 there was catchup. Also, revenue doesn't capture the whole story. Share price indicates something about longer run growth potential and margin development.
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
  - drexlspivey 5y ago
    This is peak HN, calling 30% annual growth on a $750 billion company flat
    - grey-area 5y ago
      The $750 billion valuation (approaching the combined value of other car companies) is precisely why I said that it was flat compared to the valuation growth, the valuation has grown about 1300% in the last few years. Also the vast majority of those profits are not car sales but regulatory credits and Bitcoin sales, they are barely in profit on selling cars, which makes the valuation even more absurdly optimistic. IMO Tesla will do well and get to perhaps 30% of the global car market and some of energy, but that still doesn’t justify their valuation today, let alone any future growth.
      - DarmokJalad1701 5y ago
        > they are barely in profit on selling cars Did you even see the earnings report yesterday? I don't care about non-cash expenses (Stock-based compensation of 614M). They made a profit of $1.05 billion out of which ~102M was from the bitcoin sale and 518M was from reg credits. In what world is ~$430 million in a single quarter "barely anything"?
        grey-area 5y ago
        Greater than 60% of their profit is still from one-offs which are likely to go away soon (or even become liabilities like the bitcoin), their PE ratio is > 1000, and they have only just turned the corner and started profiting from car sales; in previous years they made a loss, which is fine in a growing company, but they are not some super-profitable company which justifies their valuation - their valuation is a projection of future growth, and I don't think it's unreasonable to say their valuation is very optimistic given their sales and position in the market.
- halotrope 5y ago
  I stand corrected. Thank you! Still not exactly mega-growth. Especially compared to the share price.
  - magnusmundus 5y ago
    We're used to growth in orders of magnitude in the tech industry, but keep in mind that in the end, this is an automobile company, whose business has side benefits in battery tech. Automotive is a stagnating (and at times shrinking) industry with relatively low margins, again unlike tech. Opportunities for overall growth are rare, as market saturation is quite high. In that environment, a steady 20%+ growth is respectable, to put it very lightly. Share price is a whole other discussion, of course.
  - dmode 5y ago
    How is 100% growth in 3-4 years not mega growth in a capital intense industry?
  - Kranar 5y ago
    Revenue doubling over 3 years isn't mega growth? Tesla isn't some start up that just IPO'd, it's one of the world's largest companies. Very few companies manage to double revenue in 3 years. So you might next claim that revenue only doubled but stock price 10x'd over that time period. Well the reason is pretty simple, an investor who buys Tesla before its revenue grows will enjoy a better return on their investment compared to an investor who waits until afterwards to invest. When investing, you want to look to the future potential of the company, not its past. If every 3 years Tesla manages to double their revenue, then after 6 years Tesla's revenue will match what you think is a reflection of today's stock price. At that point it will be too late to capitalize off of Tesla's stock price. So either Tesla fails to continue its growth, maybe people end up losing interest in electric vehicles and other projects Tesla is working on, or maybe its competitors manage to produce a better electric vehicle and end up with superior battery technology... or Tesla will continue to dominate this sector, will continue innovating in this area, and in so doing will capture new segments of the electric vehicle economy that very few people are able to appreciate today. The stock market is risky business, no one has a crystal ball, but the market is indicating that electric vehicles are going to be the future, and Tesla is the dominant player in this emerging market.
- nickik 5y ago
  Their guidance actually indicates more then $40 Billion. 2021 was a down year for Tesla. Given that Q1 usually the worst Quarter they made $10 Billion I would expect significantly over $40 billion this year. And its hard to see how 2022 will not continue this, 2022 will bring two huge new factories to full scale, Berlin and Austin. It will also see launch of Cybertruck and Semi at least. The list of companies that can grow at that rate at that size is very small. Their automotive margin (excluding credits) has improved significantly over this period. Improving unit margins with improving volume is a powerful combination and Tesla, they are only just really establishing true global scale and global production. Their profitability has a good outlook as well.
reader_mode 5y ago
Tesla is now entirely valued on the "self driving taxi fleet" and "selling self driving software" stories panning out for the valuation to work. If Tesla doesn't get autonomus self driving, or if it gets beat to market by someone, it's got no way to justify valuation.

DarmokJalad1701 5y ago

> flat revenue for 3 years ??? 2018 - $21.5B 2019 - $24.5B 2020 - $31.5B 2021 (annualized) - probably $35-$40 B

grey-area 5y ago
That’s pretty flat compared to the share valuation.
- FuckButtons 5y ago
  It’s still 30% annual growth.
- nickik 5y ago
  Before that Period Tesla had low share growth, after 2017 there was catchup. Also, revenue doesn't capture the whole story. Share price indicates something about longer run growth potential and margin development.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- drexlspivey 5y ago
  This is peak HN, calling 30% annual growth on a $750 billion company flat
  - grey-area 5y ago
    The $750 billion valuation (approaching the combined value of other car companies) is precisely why I said that it was flat compared to the valuation growth, the valuation has grown about 1300% in the last few years. Also the vast majority of those profits are not car sales but regulatory credits and Bitcoin sales, they are barely in profit on selling cars, which makes the valuation even more absurdly optimistic. IMO Tesla will do well and get to perhaps 30% of the global car market and some of energy, but that still doesn’t justify their valuation today, let alone any future growth.
    - DarmokJalad1701 5y ago
      > they are barely in profit on selling cars Did you even see the earnings report yesterday? I don't care about non-cash expenses (Stock-based compensation of 614M). They made a profit of $1.05 billion out of which ~102M was from the bitcoin sale and 518M was from reg credits. In what world is ~$430 million in a single quarter "barely anything"?
      - grey-area 5y ago
        Greater than 60% of their profit is still from one-offs which are likely to go away soon (or even become liabilities like the bitcoin), their PE ratio is > 1000, and they have only just turned the corner and started profiting from car sales; in previous years they made a loss, which is fine in a growing company, but they are not some super-profitable company which justifies their valuation - their valuation is a projection of future growth, and I don't think it's unreasonable to say their valuation is very optimistic given their sales and position in the market.
halotrope 5y ago
I stand corrected. Thank you! Still not exactly mega-growth. Especially compared to the share price.
- magnusmundus 5y ago
  We're used to growth in orders of magnitude in the tech industry, but keep in mind that in the end, this is an automobile company, whose business has side benefits in battery tech. Automotive is a stagnating (and at times shrinking) industry with relatively low margins, again unlike tech. Opportunities for overall growth are rare, as market saturation is quite high. In that environment, a steady 20%+ growth is respectable, to put it very lightly. Share price is a whole other discussion, of course.
- dmode 5y ago
  How is 100% growth in 3-4 years not mega growth in a capital intense industry?
- Kranar 5y ago
  Revenue doubling over 3 years isn't mega growth? Tesla isn't some start up that just IPO'd, it's one of the world's largest companies. Very few companies manage to double revenue in 3 years. So you might next claim that revenue only doubled but stock price 10x'd over that time period. Well the reason is pretty simple, an investor who buys Tesla before its revenue grows will enjoy a better return on their investment compared to an investor who waits until afterwards to invest. When investing, you want to look to the future potential of the company, not its past. If every 3 years Tesla manages to double their revenue, then after 6 years Tesla's revenue will match what you think is a reflection of today's stock price. At that point it will be too late to capitalize off of Tesla's stock price. So either Tesla fails to continue its growth, maybe people end up losing interest in electric vehicles and other projects Tesla is working on, or maybe its competitors manage to produce a better electric vehicle and end up with superior battery technology... or Tesla will continue to dominate this sector, will continue innovating in this area, and in so doing will capture new segments of the electric vehicle economy that very few people are able to appreciate today. The stock market is risky business, no one has a crystal ball, but the market is indicating that electric vehicles are going to be the future, and Tesla is the dominant player in this emerging market.
nickik 5y ago
Their guidance actually indicates more then $40 Billion. 2021 was a down year for Tesla. Given that Q1 usually the worst Quarter they made $10 Billion I would expect significantly over $40 billion this year. And its hard to see how 2022 will not continue this, 2022 will bring two huge new factories to full scale, Berlin and Austin. It will also see launch of Cybertruck and Semi at least. The list of companies that can grow at that rate at that size is very small. Their automotive margin (excluding credits) has improved significantly over this period. Improving unit margins with improving volume is a powerful combination and Tesla, they are only just really establishing true global scale and global production. Their profitability has a good outlook as well.

reader_mode 5y ago

Tesla is now entirely valued on the "self driving taxi fleet" and "selling self driving software" stories panning out for the valuation to work. If Tesla doesn't get autonomus self driving, or if it gets beat to market by someone, it's got no way to justify valuation.