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Why Grantham Says the Next Crash Will Rival 1929, 2000
- thread_id 5y agoGrantham is always brilliant, but this interview is landmark. Markets for assets have become unhinged. He articulates the dynamics with perfect clarity.
- failwhaleshark 5y agoPeople really want magical realism to be true right now more than ever due to conditions (their inelastic needs) caused by the pandemic and decades of inequality. "When there are no doubters..." that's when to worry about irrational exuberance. "Burst of euphoria" should be called "last orgasm over-expanding productive capacity." The economy is walking on air over a cliff like Wile E. Coyote structurally due to the reasons Grantham outlines. Big fail impending.
- failwhaleshark 5y agoThe American Empire is on its way down by a confluence of apathy, corruption, inequality, anti-community, overstretched military / spending, lack of lofty goals and successes, and ascendancy of rivals like China and India. As such, more and larger absurd man-made (mostly negligence/selfishness) catastrophes will occur in America, engineered by the cognitive dissonance of insulated true believers over-stretching their capabilities while trying to wallpaper over the risks and dire circumstances of reality everyone else was already experiencing. (K-shaped recovery.) Many people anticipated 2008. In 2005, I recall talking with a former manager who was on an interest-only loan while he sat on his 2nd flipped house as it rapidly appreciated. The gambit was to refinance immediately to a fixed loan just as soon as there was any clear weakness in the economy.