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"There are numerous other applications for semiconductors, but these represent the general trend. One cannot blame semiconductor companies for switching capacit

"There are numerous other applications for semiconductors, but these represent the general trend. One cannot blame semiconductor companies for switching capacity to growing applications while automakers cut production (and presumably semiconductor orders) by 40% over two quarters. It will take time to resolve the shortages. TSMC stated it takes at least six months from semiconductor production to auto production and involves several links in the supply chain. Capacity can be shifted in the short term, but increasing overall capacity often requires construction of new wafer fabs, which takes about two years. Automakers gave up their place in line, so they will have to wait their turn for semiconductors." https://semiwiki.com/semiconductor-services/298336-automakers-to-blame-for-semiconductor-shortage/ https://semiwiki.com/semiconductor-services/298336-automaker...

downrightmike 5y ago
Pretty much the only auto supplier that wasn't forced to move to just outside the automaker's own factories and on the tight chain of just in time. It was just acceptable to not highly integrate them, and oops. Maybe the automakers will make their own fabs. Which is what is really needed. But then again, we've been in a gut because of over production for years. So really, this is just automakers shifting the blame for the lack of demand of the last decade to someone that their stockholders are ok with blaming, because why admit your mistakes and fix them, when you can blame someone else?
- dehrmann 5y ago
  > Maybe the automakers will make their own fabs. Which is what is really needed. Seems like a massive investment in something that isn't their core competency (at all) for a 6-month disruption that hits ~once a generation+. It'd be a lot cheaper to just pay a foundry for reserved capacity, to stockpile a year supply of chips, or engineer cars to have more options for chips.
  - AJ007 5y ago
    If Intel couldn’t keep up with the latest fabs I can’t believe an automaker could start from 0 and have any remote chance of success. Volume would be too low to make it work financially even if they could.
    - thetinguy 5y ago
      Old processes don’t disappear when the cutting edge manufacturers switch to smaller features. A lot of jelly bean parts, like the kind that go into a car, are made with larger features that are easier to work with. I think manufacturing is a core competency for automakers. While there are significant differences between car making and chip making, I don’t think you should discount an automaker’s ability to manufacture things.
      - dehrmann 5y ago
        > I don’t think you should discount an automaker’s ability to manufacture things. Have you see infotainment UIs? Edit: my point was actually how bad they are. Carmakers don't do tech well.
        majewsky 5y ago
        I haven't seen car UIs in a hot second, so honest question: What's in there that cannot be done with, say, chips from 2008?
        flyinglizard 5y ago
        High resolution displays everywhere running fancy 3D graphics, trying to emulate good old analog dials and controls in their responsiveness. Many 2021 cars no longer have a single analog dial in them. It’s all done by pushing a ton of pixels from a CPU that’s probably not older in process than 14nm.
        hulitu 5y ago
        > > I don’t think you should discount an automaker’s ability to manufacture things. > Have you see infotainment UIs? > Edit: my point was actually how bad they are. Carmakers don't do tech well. Android UI and Win 10 are also terrible. And at least Win10 comes from someone who claims a lot of experience in this field (although some claim that they just stole the ideas).
  - inetknght 5y ago
    > or engineer cars to have more options for chips You mean like having open standards that consumers can plug-and-play their own devices into? That's absurd. /s How would auto makers vendor-lock consumers after that?
    - Lucasoato 5y ago
      This is such a shame, companies sould be forced to design their infotainment system in order to let customer installing software from different vendors in it.
      - photojosh 5y ago
        This is a solved problem with Apple CarPlay and Android Auto, no? I don't care one bit about the quality of the built-in system.
    - hulitu 5y ago
      You mean open standards like the web, amp and floc where google controls 90% of the market ? Or the PC where wintel controls 80 % ? Who will be responsible when your google analitycs powered control unit will cause the airbags to deploy during driving ?
  - oceanplexian 5y ago
    Lots of industries have to plan for black swan events that hit once in a generation. But even then that's hugely optimistic. TPS/Lean has been in widespread use since what, the 80s? What happens when war breaks out, or we end up in a serious Geopolitical Conflict (Trade War), or run into another energy crisis or shipping crisis like what happened with the Suez Canal. Owning your supply chain is a core competency. It's just that a few decades of relative global stability has allowed us to bury our heads in the sand in exchange for a few short-term optimizations.
- bsder 5y ago
  > Maybe the automakers will make their own fabs. Or, perhaps, they could ... like ... hold inventory. Gasp! But that's just crazy talk. Er, wait, that's exactly what Toyota did when they discovered that a semiconductor supply shock could kill their business.
- scoopertrooper 5y ago
  Should they make their own tires as well? Mine their own ore? All parts of the supply chain are subject to external shocks. Increased vertical integration isn't necessarily the answer in all cases.

downrightmike 5y ago

Pretty much the only auto supplier that wasn't forced to move to just outside the automaker's own factories and on the tight chain of just in time. It was just acceptable to not highly integrate them, and oops. Maybe the automakers will make their own fabs. Which is what is really needed. But then again, we've been in a gut because of over production for years. So really, this is just automakers shifting the blame for the lack of demand of the last decade to someone that their stockholders are ok with blaming, because why admit your mistakes and fix them, when you can blame someone else?

dehrmann 5y ago
> Maybe the automakers will make their own fabs. Which is what is really needed. Seems like a massive investment in something that isn't their core competency (at all) for a 6-month disruption that hits ~once a generation+. It'd be a lot cheaper to just pay a foundry for reserved capacity, to stockpile a year supply of chips, or engineer cars to have more options for chips.
- AJ007 5y ago
  If Intel couldn’t keep up with the latest fabs I can’t believe an automaker could start from 0 and have any remote chance of success. Volume would be too low to make it work financially even if they could.
  - thetinguy 5y ago
    Old processes don’t disappear when the cutting edge manufacturers switch to smaller features. A lot of jelly bean parts, like the kind that go into a car, are made with larger features that are easier to work with. I think manufacturing is a core competency for automakers. While there are significant differences between car making and chip making, I don’t think you should discount an automaker’s ability to manufacture things.
    - dehrmann 5y ago
      > I don’t think you should discount an automaker’s ability to manufacture things. Have you see infotainment UIs? Edit: my point was actually how bad they are. Carmakers don't do tech well.
      - majewsky 5y ago
        I haven't seen car UIs in a hot second, so honest question: What's in there that cannot be done with, say, chips from 2008?
        flyinglizard 5y ago
        High resolution displays everywhere running fancy 3D graphics, trying to emulate good old analog dials and controls in their responsiveness. Many 2021 cars no longer have a single analog dial in them. It’s all done by pushing a ton of pixels from a CPU that’s probably not older in process than 14nm.
      - hulitu 5y ago
        > > I don’t think you should discount an automaker’s ability to manufacture things. > Have you see infotainment UIs? > Edit: my point was actually how bad they are. Carmakers don't do tech well. Android UI and Win 10 are also terrible. And at least Win10 comes from someone who claims a lot of experience in this field (although some claim that they just stole the ideas).
- inetknght 5y ago
  > or engineer cars to have more options for chips You mean like having open standards that consumers can plug-and-play their own devices into? That's absurd. /s How would auto makers vendor-lock consumers after that?
  - Lucasoato 5y ago
    This is such a shame, companies sould be forced to design their infotainment system in order to let customer installing software from different vendors in it.
    - photojosh 5y ago
      This is a solved problem with Apple CarPlay and Android Auto, no? I don't care one bit about the quality of the built-in system.
  - hulitu 5y ago
    You mean open standards like the web, amp and floc where google controls 90% of the market ? Or the PC where wintel controls 80 % ? Who will be responsible when your google analitycs powered control unit will cause the airbags to deploy during driving ?
- oceanplexian 5y ago
  Lots of industries have to plan for black swan events that hit once in a generation. But even then that's hugely optimistic. TPS/Lean has been in widespread use since what, the 80s? What happens when war breaks out, or we end up in a serious Geopolitical Conflict (Trade War), or run into another energy crisis or shipping crisis like what happened with the Suez Canal. Owning your supply chain is a core competency. It's just that a few decades of relative global stability has allowed us to bury our heads in the sand in exchange for a few short-term optimizations.
bsder 5y ago
> Maybe the automakers will make their own fabs. Or, perhaps, they could ... like ... hold inventory. Gasp! But that's just crazy talk. Er, wait, that's exactly what Toyota did when they discovered that a semiconductor supply shock could kill their business.
scoopertrooper 5y ago
Should they make their own tires as well? Mine their own ore? All parts of the supply chain are subject to external shocks. Increased vertical integration isn't necessarily the answer in all cases.