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It doesn’t seem at all guaranteed that Tesla can ever achieve Level 5 autonomy, in any timeline, using the hardware deployed into Tesla vehicles today which wer
by nixgeek 6y ago
It doesn’t seem at all guaranteed that Tesla can ever achieve Level 5 autonomy, in any timeline, using the hardware deployed into Tesla vehicles today which were sold with “Full Self Driving” (FSD) as the $$$ expensive upgrade option.
I doled out ~$5000 for FSD on a Model 3 Performance bought 2018 which has now had a new computer fitted (at no cost to me) and always considered FSD pretty much a “bet”, which is not IMHO a complete loss since the HW3 upgrade got me more Level 2 features on a 2018 MY vehicle, something which is quite unprecedented in the auto industry.
I suspect Elon may be wrong about LIDAR and for any manufacturer to get to Level 5, it may be required and cannot be replaced entirely by cameras and computer vision. Since it is not present on any Tesla today and cannot be sanely retrofitted, barring what feels like a miracle to me, the “Defects per Million Miles” (e.g. disengagements, and accidents leading to property damage or non-fatal injury) and the “Fatalities per Million Miles” (where one was enough to tank others Autonomous Driving programs) will probably continue too high for public and regulatory acceptance that Tesla has attained Level 5 autonomy with their current vehicles and their current hardware.
- decafninja 6y agoElon and LIDAR reminds me of Steve Jobs and his stance on the the concept of a smaller iPad or bigger iPhone (both which materialized after his death IIRC). In both cases, both people seem fundamentally and adamantly adversarial for whatever reason.
- oblio 6y agoScience advances, one funeral at a time.
- WrtCdEvrydy 6y agoI think cameras and computer vision are better than LIDAR but the issue will always be the hardware supplied. The computer for processing the cameras will probably be swapped out a couple of more times before the cameras need to be swapped. The question will be if your 2018 car will get FSD in 2035 by having all of the hardware replaced instead.