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> No, not really. I’m not sure I understand what you’re pointing to here. The timeline you’re referring to is aligned with what I said - that India was regarde

> No, not really. I’m not sure I understand what you’re pointing to here. The timeline you’re referring to is aligned with what I said - that India was regarded to have managed the pandemic well just a month or two ago. It’s late April now and late Feb is when the new spike began. On March 1, the entire country still had only 15K cases per day on a rolling weekly average - nearly indistinguishable as a new and different pattern. The new spike did not reach prior peaks until early April, which was an unexpectedly fast and unprecedented pace of growth. > Large political rallies and the government's decision to prematurely reopen everything against better judgement are known key factors in India's outbreak I’m not sure if you’re familiar with India’s pandemic plan, but they didn’t “reopen everything”, and you should be careful to avoid absolute statements like this which aren’t based on facts. It’s also not possible to describe India’s policy in such a monolithic way since each state has authority to impose its own mandates. That said, after the very harsh initial restrictions, India’s strategy has been less focused on what’s open/unopened and more focused on localized containment, which was highly successful in 2020. Lastly keep in mind that as a democracy, the federal government of India can’t enact arbitrary restrictions. It has to function within the confines of the legal system, political norms, and so on. I would also caution pointing at political rallies as “known key factors” just because news articles or social media are speculating about it - this is not the same as causal evidence. The best written articles on the India spike (https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19s-ground-zero-shifts-to-india-11617634554 https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19s-ground-zero-shifts-to...) are careful to not decisively blame any one factor. Before the surge, mobility was up generally in the country, independent of elections. The emphasis on elections and rallies, which are only taking place in a few states (this isn’t a general election year), seem to be politically motivated more than anything. As I said earlier other factors like the advent of new variants need to be studied more. The WSJ notes: > Indian scientists said there hasn’t been enough testing to measure which variants are powering the surge, but the accelerating rate of the spread of infections suggests a more viral form is spreading across the country.

srean 6y ago
Yeah right some folks are still dragging their feet about lack of convincing causal evidence that smoking increases lung cancer risk. An Upton Sinclair quote comes to the mind.
- throwawaysea 6y ago
  There’s already significant causal evidence on smoking causing increased lung cancer risk. False equivalence.
  - srean 6y ago
    Exactly, yet ... folks are still dragging their feet about lack of convincing causal evidence that smoking increases lung cancer risk There are flat earthers and 'outdoor transmissions are rare'ers. Similarities are striking. Upton Sinclair still comes to the mind. https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/question-and-answers-hub/q-a-detail/coronavirus-disease-covid-19-how-is-it-transmitted# https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2... Political rallies cover two of three 'C's called out, but folks find it hard to believe when they are invested in a narrative that requires them not to believe. Even if the strain is a more virulent form, it is unlikely that that rallies helped keeping numbers in check. Targeted misdirection "oh look more virulent strain" is exactly that, a motivated misdirection.
rualca 6y ago
> (...) The timeline you’re referring to is aligned with what I said - that India was regarded to have managed the pandemic well just a month or two ago. Please don't try to gaslight. I've refuted your baseless assertion that everything was all fine and dandy in India regarding it's struggle with the covid-19 pandemic in Feb/March. I've provided a reputable reference from that time that already showed great concern about the pending disaster, and even enumerates key factors that drove India's covid-19 infections absurd growth. Either you deal with reality and facts, or refrain from posting disinformation and outright lies.
- srean 6y ago
  > Either you deal with reality and facts, or refrain from posting disinformation and outright lies. You ask for too much sir (or ma'm)
- throwawaysea 6y ago
  Your own BBC link only talks about cases increasing only in a few states at that time. It quoted medical authorities saying the increased number of cases in some states could be due to increased testing. It includes a graph showing that the overall case rate and death rate in India wasn’t out of the ordinary, matching short lived fluctuations previously seen. This same article also doesn’t single out political rallies or reopening as you did - it speculated about those possibilities for some localities, and also speculated that it could be due to new variants, but doesn’t decisively point at anything as a “key factor” driving a new countrywide surge. The virologist quoted there also clearly didn’t think a big new countrywide surge had begun, given his very tempered statement: > "We may see more localised surges in different part of the country in the coming weeks, and the only way to stay on top of the situation is to be vigilant. We need to be concerned but we are not at a stage where we need to panic" Did you even read the article?
  - rualca 6y ago
    > Your own BBC link only talks about cases increasing only in a few states at that time. From the article: > Mr Menon says the only reasonable conclusion is that surveillance in these states is stronger and that a similar rise in other states may simply have gone undetected so far. Also, FTA: > Dr A Fathahudeen, who is part of Kerala's Covid task force, says his state has been reporting a persistent rise in cases in the past few weeks, but it's largely because of improved testing. (...) He advises other states to follow the same measures. "Not finding new cases doesn't mean Covid has gone away. It simply means that the virus is burning through the population until it finds weaker victims like the elderly and people with co-morbidities." If you have no intention to be honest, please refrain from posting at all.

srean 6y ago

Yeah right some folks are still dragging their feet about lack of convincing causal evidence that smoking increases lung cancer risk. An Upton Sinclair quote comes to the mind.

throwawaysea 6y ago
There’s already significant causal evidence on smoking causing increased lung cancer risk. False equivalence.
- srean 6y ago
  Exactly, yet ... folks are still dragging their feet about lack of convincing causal evidence that smoking increases lung cancer risk There are flat earthers and 'outdoor transmissions are rare'ers. Similarities are striking. Upton Sinclair still comes to the mind. https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/question-and-answers-hub/q-a-detail/coronavirus-disease-covid-19-how-is-it-transmitted# https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2... Political rallies cover two of three 'C's called out, but folks find it hard to believe when they are invested in a narrative that requires them not to believe. Even if the strain is a more virulent form, it is unlikely that that rallies helped keeping numbers in check. Targeted misdirection "oh look more virulent strain" is exactly that, a motivated misdirection.

rualca 6y ago

> (...) The timeline you’re referring to is aligned with what I said - that India was regarded to have managed the pandemic well just a month or two ago. Please don't try to gaslight. I've refuted your baseless assertion that everything was all fine and dandy in India regarding it's struggle with the covid-19 pandemic in Feb/March. I've provided a reputable reference from that time that already showed great concern about the pending disaster, and even enumerates key factors that drove India's covid-19 infections absurd growth. Either you deal with reality and facts, or refrain from posting disinformation and outright lies.

srean 6y ago
> Either you deal with reality and facts, or refrain from posting disinformation and outright lies. You ask for too much sir (or ma'm)
throwawaysea 6y ago
Your own BBC link only talks about cases increasing only in a few states at that time. It quoted medical authorities saying the increased number of cases in some states could be due to increased testing. It includes a graph showing that the overall case rate and death rate in India wasn’t out of the ordinary, matching short lived fluctuations previously seen. This same article also doesn’t single out political rallies or reopening as you did - it speculated about those possibilities for some localities, and also speculated that it could be due to new variants, but doesn’t decisively point at anything as a “key factor” driving a new countrywide surge. The virologist quoted there also clearly didn’t think a big new countrywide surge had begun, given his very tempered statement: > "We may see more localised surges in different part of the country in the coming weeks, and the only way to stay on top of the situation is to be vigilant. We need to be concerned but we are not at a stage where we need to panic" Did you even read the article?
- rualca 6y ago
  > Your own BBC link only talks about cases increasing only in a few states at that time. From the article: > Mr Menon says the only reasonable conclusion is that surveillance in these states is stronger and that a similar rise in other states may simply have gone undetected so far. Also, FTA: > Dr A Fathahudeen, who is part of Kerala's Covid task force, says his state has been reporting a persistent rise in cases in the past few weeks, but it's largely because of improved testing. (...) He advises other states to follow the same measures. "Not finding new cases doesn't mean Covid has gone away. It simply means that the virus is burning through the population until it finds weaker victims like the elderly and people with co-morbidities." If you have no intention to be honest, please refrain from posting at all.