5 ms·
This sentiment about arrest rates really needs to go. I've done a deep dive into the numbers. Murder rate data from the FBI has a large "unknown" category, so
by NoImmatureAdHom 6y ago
This sentiment about arrest rates really needs to go.
I've done a deep dive into the numbers. Murder rate data from the FBI has a large "unknown" category, so I'll handle that in a few ways for simplicity. Focusing on murders rather than other violent crime is the best thing to do because, while there may be a lot of ambiguity about what constitutes "assault", how often it's reported, etc., there really isn't much ambiguity about murder. We don't lose track of bodies very often. Here's the murder rate in the U.S. broken down by race. All numbers are murderers (offenders) per 100,000 people:
White (simple, ignoring "Unknown"): 1.8
Black (simple, ignoring "Unknown"): 13.3
White (assuming all "Unknown" are White): 3.7
Black (assuming all "Unknown" are Black): 23.2
White (splitting up "Unknown" by existing proportion of total): 2.6
Black (splitting up "Unknown" by existing proportion of total): 18.8
The difference is stark. Using the 2.6 vs. 18.8 numbers, probably closest to the truth, Black people in the U.S. are about seven times more likely to murder in a given year than are white people. The number becomes even more stark if you compare Black to non-Black (because Asians are less likely to murder than Whites), and yet more stark if you just look at men (women murder at something like 1/8 the rate of men, so having them in the system dilutes all differences). If you remove Black Americans from the system, U.S. murder rates look like much of Western Europe.
This is a hard thing but it is a true thing. Most of the differences in how police treat Black vs. White people in the U.S. are driven by this phenomenon, not racism on the part of cops or "the system". There is an argument to be made about a legacy of slavery or systemic racism, and maybe it's important to do that, but those arguments are completely irrelevant to the cop who's walking a beat in a bad neighborhood--White or Black. That cop will (involuntarily) collect statistics on the world around him or her, and will act accordingly. We call it learning. You can't help but do it. I think some small proportion of this enormous difference is due to a feedback loop, i.e. people end up murdering more because they're policed more.
Insofar as you are "outraged" by this simple statement of fact, you are part of the problem--not the solution. Real solutions to the real problems of murder and differential policing in the U.S. require people who are brave enough to look the problem right in the eye. Ignoring the obvious truth proves to me that you don't really care about actually helping people, and are really in it to impress your friends with how woke you are.
There's a lot of work to be done, please be part of the solution.
FBI UCR murder offender data: https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2019/crime-in-the-u.s.-2019/tables/expanded-homicide-data-table-3.xls https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2019/crime-in-the-u.s.-...
Census data: https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-kits/2020/population-estimates-detailed.html https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-kits/2020/population-e...
- deepakhj 6y agoI don't believe white and black people are on the same footing economically. They've been held down since slavery and it still affects them today. Here's a few examples: real estate redlining (even though that was banned it's still happening today in other forms https://projects.newsday.com/long-island/real-estate-agents-investigation/ https://projects.newsday.com/long-island/real-estate-agents-...), the Tulsi race massacre (This story is crazy), urban renewal (Fillmore, West Oakland), all the neighborhoods they destroyed building freeways through them (https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2016/03/role-of-highways-in-american-poverty/474282/ https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2016/03/role-of..., https://usa.streetsblog.org/2021/01/11/senate-considering-10b-highway-removal-bill/ https://usa.streetsblog.org/2021/01/11/senate-considering-10...). The crack cocaine sentencing disparity split up families, creating the single parent unit, throw in the gang explosion in the 90s, and tough on crime sentencing, it's amazing people make it out of the hood. Do you think we can improve the damage we've done through policing?
- NoImmatureAdHom 6y ago>I don't believe white and black people are on the same footing economically. I agree! I infer you think it has some causal connection with murder rates. I think that's probably true, but that the relationship is weak. Black people in the U.S., while poorer than average compared to the rest of the U.S. population, are some of the richest people in the world in terms of their actual material consumption. There are lots of poorer (and much poorer) populations out there who do not display similar murder rates. I take that as evidence that not being on the same footing economically is probably not a primary driver of the high murder rate among Black Americans. >Do you think we can improve the damage we've done through policing? Yes! Step one is stop causing new damage. I think the easiest way to accomplish this is to end the War on Drugs once and for all. It's the lowest-hanging fruit--a watermelon-sized apple really. We're starting to go down this path as a nation, and it's imperative we keep going down that path. There will be negative effects, but I think the positive effects will greatly outweigh them.
- Petrova 6y agoThe vast majority of the murders are from violent gangs. That has a much stronger correlation than skin color