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> Over the last year it's be come more virulent and more deadly. Evolution is a somewhat random process at its heart, but I stand by what I said as the likely

by eloff 6y ago

> Over the last year it's be come more virulent and more deadly. Evolution is a somewhat random process at its heart, but I stand by what I said as the likely outcome, because that's the path new diseases normally take. It's early days yet. > We have no idea how well the vaccines are going to work I think we have a petty good idea by now actually. A bigger question is how much will it be hampered by people afraid or unwilling to be vaccinated? I have never in my life seen such widespread and illogical fear of vaccines. We may have to just accept that there will be an ongoing toll in the unvaccinated population that keeps the virus circulating in quantity and keeps the hospitals busy. Until sufficiently many develop natural antibodies through infection. > We have a situation right now where a country(india) with 100 million people vaccinated is getting 350,000 cases a day, and it's doubling every 10 days. That's a scenario where the evolution around the protection a vaccine offers becomes a very real and distinct possibility. Yes, that's a tail risk that's real and terrifying. I think the risk is small given such a mutation would possibly render the virus much less virulent. The vaccines tend to target the spike protein, without which it can't even infect humans. But nature finds a way. We can and will also adapt the vaccines in that case though. The money, motivation, and technical expertise are all there. But nobody knows how likely a risk that is.

soperj 6y ago
>Evolution is a somewhat random process at its heart, but I stand by what I said as the likely outcome, because that's the path new diseases normally take. It's early days yet. So that's why malaria is less deadly now? I've seen this said many times with zero backing, and it just really doesn't correlate with the history of disease. The reason we don't deal with the majority of deadly diseases is vaccines, not because they've evolved to become less deadly. >I think we have a petty good idea by now actually We have an idea of how well they work on the original covid-19 strain that we saw last year. We don't know how well they will work on actually eradicating the virus. >I think the risk is small given such a mutation would possibly render the virus much less virulent Based on what? It's already evolved to evade antibodies produced by infections from the first wave (P1 strain in Manaus specifically is a good example). Those have been mutations in the spike protein, and have made the virus more virulent and deadlier.
- WalterBright 6y ago
  > not because they've evolved to become less deadly. Apparently our DNA is literally encoded with lots of viruses, as they've evolved to become utterly harmless to people. Our bodies are loaded with various bacteria and viruses that have evolved a symbiotic relationship to the point where we'd die without them, and they can't live without us. I seriously doubt they started out that way.
  - lazide 6y ago
    Smallpox (around since about 500 BC or earlier near as we can tel), still had a 35% lethality rate until it was eradicated in the 70’s though an extensive vaccination campaign. Diseases can be severely lethal far longer than you or human memory can survive.
iso1631 6y ago
> I have never in my life seen such widespread and illogical fear of vaccines. It's interesting, in the UK we had ridiculous reaction to the MMR jab after a fraudulent claim, fired up by the media - from the ever populist Daily Mail to Private Eye [0], which led to a collapse in MMR takeup and a resurgence in measles. But we haven't seen that with covid, perhaps because the printed press is (mostly) on the side of the current government (flag waving populists), and the vaccine rollout has been branded aprt of the generational "battle" between the UK, standing alone against Europe (many in the UK don't realise WW2 ended 76 years ago). I wonder if we'd had a Corbyn or Starmer led coalition in charge if things would be different. Or imagine if the lib dems had held on to 20-30 seats that the tories gained in 2015 -- likely another coalition, with a 5 year fixed term, no brexit referendum, and then the GE having to be delayed (it would have been set for May 2020) [0] https://behavioralscientist.org/how-fraud-and-a-broken-publishing-system-fueled-the-vaccine-autism-myth/ https://behavioralscientist.org/how-fraud-and-a-broken-publi...

by eloff 6y ago

soperj 6y ago

>Evolution is a somewhat random process at its heart, but I stand by what I said as the likely outcome, because that's the path new diseases normally take. It's early days yet. So that's why malaria is less deadly now? I've seen this said many times with zero backing, and it just really doesn't correlate with the history of disease. The reason we don't deal with the majority of deadly diseases is vaccines, not because they've evolved to become less deadly. >I think we have a petty good idea by now actually We have an idea of how well they work on the original covid-19 strain that we saw last year. We don't know how well they will work on actually eradicating the virus. >I think the risk is small given such a mutation would possibly render the virus much less virulent Based on what? It's already evolved to evade antibodies produced by infections from the first wave (P1 strain in Manaus specifically is a good example). Those have been mutations in the spike protein, and have made the virus more virulent and deadlier.

WalterBright 6y ago
> not because they've evolved to become less deadly. Apparently our DNA is literally encoded with lots of viruses, as they've evolved to become utterly harmless to people. Our bodies are loaded with various bacteria and viruses that have evolved a symbiotic relationship to the point where we'd die without them, and they can't live without us. I seriously doubt they started out that way.
- lazide 6y ago
  Smallpox (around since about 500 BC or earlier near as we can tel), still had a 35% lethality rate until it was eradicated in the 70’s though an extensive vaccination campaign. Diseases can be severely lethal far longer than you or human memory can survive.

iso1631 6y ago

> I have never in my life seen such widespread and illogical fear of vaccines. It's interesting, in the UK we had ridiculous reaction to the MMR jab after a fraudulent claim, fired up by the media - from the ever populist Daily Mail to Private Eye [0], which led to a collapse in MMR takeup and a resurgence in measles. But we haven't seen that with covid, perhaps because the printed press is (mostly) on the side of the current government (flag waving populists), and the vaccine rollout has been branded aprt of the generational "battle" between the UK, standing alone against Europe (many in the UK don't realise WW2 ended 76 years ago). I wonder if we'd had a Corbyn or Starmer led coalition in charge if things would be different. Or imagine if the lib dems had held on to 20-30 seats that the tories gained in 2015 -- likely another coalition, with a 5 year fixed term, no brexit referendum, and then the GE having to be delayed (it would have been set for May 2020) [0] https://behavioralscientist.org/how-fraud-and-a-broken-publishing-system-fueled-the-vaccine-autism-myth/ https://behavioralscientist.org/how-fraud-and-a-broken-publi...