Why is this hard to predict? All pandemics begin with a case of one. Just one infected person. If your number is not zero, then it can take off again. There

Why is this hard to predict? All pandemics begin with a case of one. Just one infected person. If your number is not zero, then it can take off again. There's no stopping it until the virus burns out by infecting everyone and their's herd immunity or vaccinations. You can suppress it with non medical methods such as very strict lockdowns, massive testing, quarantines, mask, social distancing, etc. But it's like an ember, can turn into a fire at any time and burn everything down. Unfortunately, countries do well to suppress it, then relax as if they have conquered it.