5 ms·

If there's still someone who touts the "but X people die of the flu/car crashes/whatever per year", let this be a lesson of non-linear scaling and why you need

If there's still someone who touts the "but X people die of the flu/car crashes/whatever per year", let this be a lesson of non-linear scaling and why you need to take this property very seriously with contagious & lethal disease.

Florin_Andrei 6y ago
At this point I feel that category of people may not be able to absorb any rational lesson at all.
HonestOp001 6y ago
How do you make choices on things if you do not have a comparison. I have friends in India that are losing their jobs and are becoming hopeless for their future. What impact long term psychologically can we assign a cost to this? Are we okay with telling people: you lucky ones who can quarantine, hunker down. You lot who are the undesirables, fetch my water in the world amongst the other masses. There needs to be an operations research department that has the gimp from that John Travolta movie that comes out and says: “here is our cold hearted calculation. For Covid, everyone needs to get healthy, survival rates for under 30 BMI are pretty much perfect, over that, we will see 87% of fatalities amongst this group.” Instead, of getting this sort of information, we got: “everyone can get sick, equally!” We knew early on the mortality was higher for older folks, did this delineation happen, nope. Instead of isolating the elderly, Cuomo sent infected back into the old folks homes! Then lied / hid the data of deaths.
- kingofpandora 6y ago
  Agree ... But "take seriously" can mean not going to a religious festival with a million other people.
- waihtis 6y ago
  > How do you make choices on things if you do not have a comparison Point is that it is NOT good to compare COVID and non-scaling death factors. But I do agree it is a more difficult overall problem than this - think the main failure is the rigid-as-steel top-down governance models that takes ages to react to even major environmental changes and make borderline idiotic decisions when being too far removed from their effects.

Florin_Andrei 6y ago

At this point I feel that category of people may not be able to absorb any rational lesson at all.

HonestOp001 6y ago

How do you make choices on things if you do not have a comparison. I have friends in India that are losing their jobs and are becoming hopeless for their future. What impact long term psychologically can we assign a cost to this? Are we okay with telling people: you lucky ones who can quarantine, hunker down. You lot who are the undesirables, fetch my water in the world amongst the other masses. There needs to be an operations research department that has the gimp from that John Travolta movie that comes out and says: “here is our cold hearted calculation. For Covid, everyone needs to get healthy, survival rates for under 30 BMI are pretty much perfect, over that, we will see 87% of fatalities amongst this group.” Instead, of getting this sort of information, we got: “everyone can get sick, equally!” We knew early on the mortality was higher for older folks, did this delineation happen, nope. Instead of isolating the elderly, Cuomo sent infected back into the old folks homes! Then lied / hid the data of deaths.

kingofpandora 6y ago
Agree ... But "take seriously" can mean not going to a religious festival with a million other people.
waihtis 6y ago
> How do you make choices on things if you do not have a comparison Point is that it is NOT good to compare COVID and non-scaling death factors. But I do agree it is a more difficult overall problem than this - think the main failure is the rigid-as-steel top-down governance models that takes ages to react to even major environmental changes and make borderline idiotic decisions when being too far removed from their effects.