"Beyond reasonable doubt" means it's unreasonable to doubt it. If you bet your friend (who is incentivized to say that they rolled above a 1) rolls a ten sided

"Beyond reasonable doubt" means it's unreasonable to doubt it. If you bet your friend (who is incentivized to say that they rolled above a 1) rolls a ten sided die and says they rolled above a 1, is it unreasonable to doubt them? No way, 10% chance of an event happening means it's very reasonable that it'll happen. Same for a d20. At what point is it unreasonable to be concerned about rolling a 1? > Most people say 90-95% Most people believe that the 538's 2016 presidential forecast was incompetent because it said trump only had a 1/3 chance of winning and he won. Other papers put it at 10%. People said this was a huge failure because people generally are terrible at intuitively reasoning about probabilities, which is well established. I'd put reasonable doubt at closer to 1 in a few hundred, maybe even rarer. Is the link you included talking about the probability of convicting a person, given that they're innocent, or the probability that a convicted person is innocent? It brings too mind the classic stats issues of testing positive for a disease via a highly accurate test, with it still being probable that you don't have the disease. Even a highly accurate test can be entirely unreasonable as evidence of the rare case. We should probably care about making the false discovery rate the unreasonable one. Of the convicted people, is it unreasonable to doubt that a random one is guilty.