The math behind this is wrong. It’s taking a naive average of your confidence scores so that if your average confidence level is 95% then you must think you go

The math behind this is wrong. It’s taking a naive average of your confidence scores so that if your average confidence level is 95% then you must think you got 9.5 of 10 correct. No, if I answered 95% confidence on all 10 then my estimate of the probability I got at least one wrong is 1 - .95^10 = 40%. Whereas if I answered 100% confidence on 9 and 50% confidence on one, then i am predicting 50% probability that I got 9, and 50% probability I got all 10. I assume the paper is riddled with similar mathematical errors. You can’t just average probabilities together like that.