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I don't know if there a good way to add value and insight to this topic because even insight is going to be zero sum and partisan, but here's a shot. Sectarian

I don't know if there a good way to add value and insight to this topic because even insight is going to be zero sum and partisan, but here's a shot. Sectarianism is something I've talked to acquaintences about for a few years, as I was thinking about how to make predictions on how current events were playing out, and the precdents I thought would be useful as a model to anticipate were an environment like the Troubles in Ireland, or the Years of Lead in Italy, and to a lesser extent, a re-run of the 1968-1970s U.S. era Weathermen type conflicts, but I think this emerging conflict will be even more of a melee. It's still just skirmishes between very small physical groups that will probably move into terrorism and assasinations over the summer, and with tacit or direct approval and funding from within institutions to keep it going. Over a decade or more it reduces to a tawdry mix of organized crime and blood sport for the politically protected. And that's the optimistic version. The factors and populations today are much larger, and the general destabiliztion of America both domesically and internationally is creating a power vaccuum, which a lot of different parties are rushing in to seize the void. This vaccuum idea predicts China's current aggression on Hong Kong and Taiwan, Russia on Ukraine (and the whole region), and Iran on Israel as a direct result of domestic instability in the U.S., because these powers know it's democratically impossible to be able to mobilze a draft for a ground war to defend your allies, so they're making their plays. While that shifts the discussion away from immediate domestic concerns, those players are absolutely involved. The fashionably Girardian view would ask, who will be the scapegoat that lets all these groups save face and gives them an out for peace, and how grisly will its end have to be? I'm pretty sure it's going to be us thoughtful types, and maybe there will be a pogrom against rationalists, because if there is one thing everyone can agree on, people who write like this can be very annoying.

1cvmask 6y ago
> because these powers know it's democratically impossible to be able to mobilze a draft for a ground war to defend your allies, so they're making their plays. We ended the draft after the Vietnam war and had no problem invading, droning and bombing to the stone ages over 10 countries since then. We don’t need a draft to wage wars and blow up countries. Our national security budget is 1.2 trillion dollars (not the 750 billion headline number). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conscription_in_the_United_States#End_of_conscription https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conscription_in_the_United_Sta... https://www.pogo.org/analysis/2019/05/making-sense-of-the-1-25-trillion-national-security-state-budget/ https://www.pogo.org/analysis/2019/05/making-sense-of-the-1-... I don’t know what vacuum idea you are referring to? We have been tightening the noose around China since Obama term 2 and instigating riots in their province Hong Kong (which was forcibly leased by the white colonial power Britain in 1897 for a hundred years). Our consular staff were even involved in the protests organizations. Imagine foreign embassy staff involved with Antifa or BLM after George Floyd and the uproar that would surround it. https://www.japantimes.co.jp/tag/julie-eadeh/ https://www.japantimes.co.jp/tag/julie-eadeh/ https://news.cgtn.com/news/2019-09-04/Who-are-really-organizing-the-events-in-Hong-Kong--JIiz9ysRKE/index.html https://news.cgtn.com/news/2019-09-04/Who-are-really-organiz... http://se.china-embassy.org/eng/zgxw/t1691479.htm http://se.china-embassy.org/eng/zgxw/t1691479.htm We instigated the Maidan revolution in Ukraine. Look up Victoria Nuland (wife of famed liar and neocon Robert Kagan - see bottom) and the ambassador Pyatt who was organizing the rioters. https://foreignpolicy.com/2015/06/18/the-undiplomatic-diplomat/ https://foreignpolicy.com/2015/06/18/the-undiplomatic-diplom... https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26079957 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26079957 https://www.cato.org/commentary/americas-ukraine-hypocrisy https://www.cato.org/commentary/americas-ukraine-hypocrisy Israel has had many successful attacks on and in Iran over many decades. From blowing up people to government facilities to covert cyberattacks to attacking Iranian ships on a regular basis. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stuxnet https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stuxnet https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination_of_Iranian_nuclear_scientists https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination_of_Iranian_nucle... and so much more...... And it goes without saying that we have surrounded all these countries with military bases and armed their adversaries to the teeth. And then all the secret wars we wage and the millions we kill: https://www.c-span.org/video/?10353-1/secret-wars-cia https://www.c-span.org/video/?10353-1/secret-wars-cia https://www.amazon.com/Search-Enemies-CIA-Story/dp/0393009262 https://www.amazon.com/Search-Enemies-CIA-Story/dp/039300926... https://www.amazon.com/Jakarta-Method-Washingtons-Anticommunist-Crusade/dp/1541742400/ref=sr_1_1?dchild=1&keywords=jakarta+method&qid=1619147993&s=books&sr=1-1 https://www.amazon.com/Jakarta-Method-Washingtons-Anticommun... If you want to make predictions on the next countries we are going to attack and bomb it is quite easy. Follow the DC pro-war think tanks (all of them with the notable exception of the new entrant Quincy Institute) and their keyboard commandoes. They will manufacture every lie possible for their agenda and the press will follow them suit (too many examples like Iraq etc...). Victoria Nuland’s husband is the famed liar and neocon Robert Kagan who said that anyone who said that Bush lied about WMD is a conspiracy theorist. https://www.theage.com.au/national/so-whos-lying-george-bush-or-saddam-hussein-20030620-gdvwo3.html https://www.theage.com.au/national/so-whos-lying-george-bush... https://washingtonindependent.com/15333/fred-kagan-lies-about-bush-lying-about-iraq/ https://washingtonindependent.com/15333/fred-kagan-lies-abou...
- dang 6y ago
  Please don't post political flamewar boilerplate to HN. Threads here are supposed to be curious conversations. This is not that. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
  - corporateshil1 6y ago
    Dang, theres too much inconsistency with your moderation. You didn't seem to want to limit such flamebait from false statements from GP's comment. It is unfortunate factual statements are not allowed on here. Allowing one side to flame away is not the process to reach curious conversations. Good luck with that.
    - dang 6y ago
      Sides always feel like we take the other side [1]. That's the way this goes. For lots of examples see https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26148870 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26148870. > It is unfortunate factual statements are not allowed on here People use the words 'facts' and 'factual' a bit magically in internet arguments. There are infinitely many facts [2]. They don't select themselves; people do that. When they do it as part of curious conversation, great; when they do it as part of flamewar, well, the 'flamewar' part is the high-order bit. We're trying to avoid that here. In the GP case, a barrage of links about everything from Vietnam to Ukraine to Robert Kagan is not curious conversation—it's boilerplate, as I said, meaning it reads like pre-existing material designed to be copy-pasted into ideological arguments. Even if all that is "facts" and all 100% correct on all the underlying issues, doing that is still boring and not what HN is for. How would you enjoy a conversation where someone insisted on reading all that stuff out to you? [1] https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=true&sort=byDate&type=comment&query=%22always%20feels%22%20mods%20by:dang https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=true&sor... [2] https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=false&query=by%3Adang%20infinitely%20many%20facts&sort=byDate&type=comment https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=false&qu...
luckylion 6y ago
> It's still just skirmishes between very small physical groups that will probably move into terrorism and assasinations over the summer, and with tacit or direct approval and funding from within institutions to keep it going. Over this summer (2021)? Or did you mean "summer" as in "there's a decade or three of spring where things heat up and it culminates in a violent, hot summer"? > The fashionably Girardian view would ask, who will be the scapegoat that lets all these groups save face and gives them an out for peace, and how grisly will its end have to be? I'm pretty sure it's going to be us thoughtful types, and maybe there will be a pogrom against rationalists, because if there is one thing everyone can agree on, people who write like this can be very annoying. The left and the right would be uniting to enact pogroms against "rationalists"?
- motohagiography 6y ago
  Re: reaitonalists, Laughably, yes, because the idea of a scapegoat is ancient, and it needs to be someone essentially neutral to the conflict. Literally? Perhaps not them, but they are an example of who in the current culture war could stand in for one, e.g. moderate, meta, insensitive, and aloof thinkers are people the extremes could agree on. On the terrorism and assasinations, yes this summer is a reasonable bet. We saw trial runs of it last year in the U.S. and because the parties in the conflict are really small groups, they will use tactics that create that sort of cost effective spectacle. Once one is into real directed political violence, there's nothing earnest or heated about it, it's a cynical tactic mixed with manipulation and deception and the targets of it are reduced to symbols. The perpetrators do not deserve our shock, concern, or even surprise. It's an inferior tactic to hold a losing cause together.

1cvmask 6y ago

> because these powers know it's democratically impossible to be able to mobilze a draft for a ground war to defend your allies, so they're making their plays. We ended the draft after the Vietnam war and had no problem invading, droning and bombing to the stone ages over 10 countries since then. We don’t need a draft to wage wars and blow up countries. Our national security budget is 1.2 trillion dollars (not the 750 billion headline number). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conscription_in_the_United_States#End_of_conscription https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conscription_in_the_United_Sta... https://www.pogo.org/analysis/2019/05/making-sense-of-the-1-25-trillion-national-security-state-budget/ https://www.pogo.org/analysis/2019/05/making-sense-of-the-1-... I don’t know what vacuum idea you are referring to? We have been tightening the noose around China since Obama term 2 and instigating riots in their province Hong Kong (which was forcibly leased by the white colonial power Britain in 1897 for a hundred years). Our consular staff were even involved in the protests organizations. Imagine foreign embassy staff involved with Antifa or BLM after George Floyd and the uproar that would surround it. https://www.japantimes.co.jp/tag/julie-eadeh/ https://www.japantimes.co.jp/tag/julie-eadeh/ https://news.cgtn.com/news/2019-09-04/Who-are-really-organizing-the-events-in-Hong-Kong--JIiz9ysRKE/index.html https://news.cgtn.com/news/2019-09-04/Who-are-really-organiz... http://se.china-embassy.org/eng/zgxw/t1691479.htm http://se.china-embassy.org/eng/zgxw/t1691479.htm We instigated the Maidan revolution in Ukraine. Look up Victoria Nuland (wife of famed liar and neocon Robert Kagan - see bottom) and the ambassador Pyatt who was organizing the rioters. https://foreignpolicy.com/2015/06/18/the-undiplomatic-diplomat/ https://foreignpolicy.com/2015/06/18/the-undiplomatic-diplom... https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26079957 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26079957 https://www.cato.org/commentary/americas-ukraine-hypocrisy https://www.cato.org/commentary/americas-ukraine-hypocrisy Israel has had many successful attacks on and in Iran over many decades. From blowing up people to government facilities to covert cyberattacks to attacking Iranian ships on a regular basis. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stuxnet https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stuxnet https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination_of_Iranian_nuclear_scientists https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination_of_Iranian_nucle... and so much more...... And it goes without saying that we have surrounded all these countries with military bases and armed their adversaries to the teeth. And then all the secret wars we wage and the millions we kill: https://www.c-span.org/video/?10353-1/secret-wars-cia https://www.c-span.org/video/?10353-1/secret-wars-cia https://www.amazon.com/Search-Enemies-CIA-Story/dp/0393009262 https://www.amazon.com/Search-Enemies-CIA-Story/dp/039300926... https://www.amazon.com/Jakarta-Method-Washingtons-Anticommunist-Crusade/dp/1541742400/ref=sr_1_1?dchild=1&keywords=jakarta+method&qid=1619147993&s=books&sr=1-1 https://www.amazon.com/Jakarta-Method-Washingtons-Anticommun... If you want to make predictions on the next countries we are going to attack and bomb it is quite easy. Follow the DC pro-war think tanks (all of them with the notable exception of the new entrant Quincy Institute) and their keyboard commandoes. They will manufacture every lie possible for their agenda and the press will follow them suit (too many examples like Iraq etc...). Victoria Nuland’s husband is the famed liar and neocon Robert Kagan who said that anyone who said that Bush lied about WMD is a conspiracy theorist. https://www.theage.com.au/national/so-whos-lying-george-bush-or-saddam-hussein-20030620-gdvwo3.html https://www.theage.com.au/national/so-whos-lying-george-bush... https://washingtonindependent.com/15333/fred-kagan-lies-about-bush-lying-about-iraq/ https://washingtonindependent.com/15333/fred-kagan-lies-abou...

dang 6y ago
Please don't post political flamewar boilerplate to HN. Threads here are supposed to be curious conversations. This is not that. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
- corporateshil1 6y ago
  Dang, theres too much inconsistency with your moderation. You didn't seem to want to limit such flamebait from false statements from GP's comment. It is unfortunate factual statements are not allowed on here. Allowing one side to flame away is not the process to reach curious conversations. Good luck with that.
  - dang 6y ago
    Sides always feel like we take the other side [1]. That's the way this goes. For lots of examples see https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26148870 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26148870. > It is unfortunate factual statements are not allowed on here People use the words 'facts' and 'factual' a bit magically in internet arguments. There are infinitely many facts [2]. They don't select themselves; people do that. When they do it as part of curious conversation, great; when they do it as part of flamewar, well, the 'flamewar' part is the high-order bit. We're trying to avoid that here. In the GP case, a barrage of links about everything from Vietnam to Ukraine to Robert Kagan is not curious conversation—it's boilerplate, as I said, meaning it reads like pre-existing material designed to be copy-pasted into ideological arguments. Even if all that is "facts" and all 100% correct on all the underlying issues, doing that is still boring and not what HN is for. How would you enjoy a conversation where someone insisted on reading all that stuff out to you? [1] https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=true&sort=byDate&type=comment&query=%22always%20feels%22%20mods%20by:dang https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=true&sor... [2] https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=false&query=by%3Adang%20infinitely%20many%20facts&sort=byDate&type=comment https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=false&qu...

luckylion 6y ago

> It's still just skirmishes between very small physical groups that will probably move into terrorism and assasinations over the summer, and with tacit or direct approval and funding from within institutions to keep it going. Over this summer (2021)? Or did you mean "summer" as in "there's a decade or three of spring where things heat up and it culminates in a violent, hot summer"? > The fashionably Girardian view would ask, who will be the scapegoat that lets all these groups save face and gives them an out for peace, and how grisly will its end have to be? I'm pretty sure it's going to be us thoughtful types, and maybe there will be a pogrom against rationalists, because if there is one thing everyone can agree on, people who write like this can be very annoying. The left and the right would be uniting to enact pogroms against "rationalists"?

motohagiography 6y ago
Re: reaitonalists, Laughably, yes, because the idea of a scapegoat is ancient, and it needs to be someone essentially neutral to the conflict. Literally? Perhaps not them, but they are an example of who in the current culture war could stand in for one, e.g. moderate, meta, insensitive, and aloof thinkers are people the extremes could agree on. On the terrorism and assasinations, yes this summer is a reasonable bet. We saw trial runs of it last year in the U.S. and because the parties in the conflict are really small groups, they will use tactics that create that sort of cost effective spectacle. Once one is into real directed political violence, there's nothing earnest or heated about it, it's a cynical tactic mixed with manipulation and deception and the targets of it are reduced to symbols. The perpetrators do not deserve our shock, concern, or even surprise. It's an inferior tactic to hold a losing cause together.