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This is so frustrating, because you're not seeing my point that, without a simpler hypotheses, it doesn't make any sense to dismiss hypotheses on the basis of t
by SamBam 6y ago
This is so frustrating, because you're not seeing my point that, without a simpler hypotheses, it doesn't make any sense to dismiss hypotheses on the basis of the Razor alone.
And, again, from what everyone understands of how cars and Teslas work, the initial description doesn't have enough elements to be a complete story.
This is honestly what this whole conversation sounds like to me: Suppose we find a baby stuck high up in a tree.
Me: "How do you suppose it got there?
You: "No idea. All I know is that there's a baby in a tree. The baby got there."
"Perhaps someone put him there?"
"Occam's Razor states you shouldn't multiply entities unnecessarily. Another person would be another entity."
"Ok... I mean, maybe there was a flood and-"
"And maybe a flying pig put him there! What don't you get about Occam's Razor???"
"So how do you think he got there?"
"I have no idea."
"Ok... So, I think that someone putting him there is the most likely -"
"How do you not understand that Occam's Razor doesn't require comparisons!"
"WTF?"
At this point, I don't give a damn about what Mr Occam said. This nitpicking over the original formulation is completely irrelevant. All I've been trying to think from the beginning is what the most likely explanation is.
A third person may well NOT be the most likely, or simplest explanation, but since you haven't provided one this conversation has been pretty useless.
Occam's Razor says you shouldn't multiply entities unnecessarily. That last word, "unnecessarily," I realize in retrospect, is the one I've been focussing on this entire time, while you've been talking about "entities."
If the initial story isn't sufficient -- and the fact that this would be the first Tesla ever to drive at high speed in a narrow cul-de-sac with no one in the driver's seat suggests it isn't -- them we MUST multiply entities. Bugs, trickery, GPS malfunction, whatever. We can then argue about which entities are reasonable and which aren't, if we like, but that's separate from the fact that we need to multiply them.
(And, indeed, it is this word "unnecessarily" in the original formulation that does require simplER hypotheses, which is why that wikipedia article that you told me to read all the way through is chock-full of reference to "simpler" or "competing hypotheses." Without another explanation, you have no idea if the additional entities are necessary or not. All explanations require at least one "entity," except perhaps the Big Bang. The particulars of the case determine how many entities are necessary and sufficient.)
- YeGoblynQueenne 6y agoI am seeing your point. You say that there needs to be a comparison between at least two hypotheses and then the Razor will help us choose one if it's simpler than the other. There are many competing hypotheses to choose from in this case. They include all the hypotheses that assume there was a third person in the car; and all the hypotheses that do not assume there was a third person in the car. Any hypothesis that does not assume there was a third person in the car is "simplER" than any hypothesis that assumes there was a third person in the car. Assuming there was a third person in the car is to multiply entities beyond necessity, i.e. as you say "unnecessarily". You can check my comments in this thread to verify that I've said this many times. The comments that wonder about what "entity" means are yours, not mine.
- SamBam 6y ago> Any hypothesis that does not assume there was a third person in the car is "simplER" than any hypothesis that assumes there was a third person in the car. Nonsense. A hypothesis that there was a third person in the car is simpler than a hypothesis that there were only two people in the car and an advanced animatronic ice sculpture in the driver's seat which melted after the crash. (I remember my minute-mystery solutions.) A hypothesis that there was a third person in the car is simpler than a hypothesis that there was a rare combination of a bug in the software, a GPS malfunction, a solar flare, and a paint spill that looked like a painted lane marker. There are an infinite number of hypotheses that don't contain a third person that are more complex than the hypothesis that there was a third person. > You say that there needs to be a comparison between at least two hypotheses and then the Razor will help us choose one if it's simpler than the other. If you think that was my point, you didn't read my comment above at all. That was not my point. It was that, IF the known facts of a story aren't sufficient cause to result in its conclusion, then there is required to be at least one more cause than has been explained.
- deleted 6y ago[deleted]
- YeGoblynQueenne 6y ago