4 ms·

The only RCT ever performed for self infection of SARS-2 in the community failed to reach significance. No RCT of community masking for SARS-2 transmission has

The only RCT ever performed for self infection of SARS-2 in the community failed to reach significance. No RCT of community masking for SARS-2 transmission has ever been done, probably because it’s unfeasible (translation: we’ve constructed an unfalsifiable hypothesis). Can you point me to a non mechanistic non associative study that demonstrates that face masks work to prevent community transmission of SARS-2? EDIR: I can’t reply to the child comment about condoms (does HN have a nesting limit?) but suffice to say we only have 1 RCT on SARS-2 so playing the significance game is silly. You can’t point to a single RCT showing an effect because it doesn’t exist. That’s the problem. We’re mandating an intervention that is unproven to work and rests on theoretical assumptions that are now known to be false. You can go look at non-SARS-2 RCTs if you want but those also look abysmal. For example go read Macintyre’s cluster-randomized controlled trial of cloth masks in healthcare workers. It’s not encouraging.

sampo 5y ago
> The only RCT ever performed for self infection of SARS-2 in the community failed to reach significance. Do condoms work against sexually transmitted diseases? 5 out of 10 RCT studies reported statistically significant effect. Do condoms work against unwanted pregnancy? 0 out of 4 RCT studies reported statistically significant effect. https://jech.bmj.com/content/65/2/100 https://jech.bmj.com/content/65/2/100
- __blockcipher__ 5y ago
  Wow, what an intellectually dishonest description of your citation. It’s looking at interventions to promote condom usage, not condom usage. Forgive my tone but...just wow.
  - sampo 5y ago
    > It’s looking at interventions to promote condom usage, not condom usage. So is the mentioned mask RCT study. They should be quite comparable.
peteretep 5y ago
First you say > Face masks ... don’t work to slow transmission whatsoever and when pushed on it, you imply that this is true because there’s been no trial on it, which is not how implication works. You then also try and suggest the presence of an unfalsifiable hypothesis which you don’t try and explain, and seems suggestive that you don’t know what the term means?
- __blockcipher__ 5y ago
  It’s unfalsifiable because it requires studying a whole community and sequencing every SARS-2 infection to attribute “blame” to the source of the infection. That is very difficult to do and that is why such an RCT does not exist. And yet most of the world is performing this intervention anyway. That’s the brilliance of “my mask protects you”. It’s not feasibly falsifiable. “My mask protects me” is very easy to falsify. That’s why we have one RCT that studied exactly that and failed to reach significance. Again, the theoretical MoA of masking only makes sense if SARS-2 spreads via respiratory droplets. If it spreads via aerosols, the sub-micron aerosol particles stay aloft for minutes-hours and bypass the comparatively giant holes of the mask with ease. The sightly altered directional flow is largely irrelevant. You can watch any of the many videos of someone vaping with a mask on/off to see what I’m talking about. Imagine that every time you exhale.
  - peteretep 5y ago
    > It’s unfalsifiable because ... very difficult to do That’s not what that means.
claytongulick 5y ago
The theory behind universal masking rests on early studies which indicated a possibility of asymptomatic spreaders. This has mostly been falsified in at least one controlled study [1]. The Danish study is the closest thing we have to RCT on masking [2] which found no statistically significant result from universal masking. Wearing a mask while symptomatic seems like a good idea though, if you're unable to stay home for some reason, though that's good advice for most airborne contagious illnesses. I appreciated the culture of doing this when I was in Japan - if for no other reason than it told me who to keep my distance from. [1] https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4695 https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4695 [2] https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/m20-6817 https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/m20-6817
mleonhard 5y ago
Washington [0], Vermont [1], and Maine [2] all got mask mandates last summer. These states have had half the number of cases [3] as other northern-US states. Masks reduce respiratory disease transmission in hospitals. They work outside of hospitals, too. Covid-19 spreads like any other respiratory disease. If you don't want to wear a mask, then stay at home. I have the right to participate in society without catching a dangerous disease from you. If your mask is uncomfortable, then try some different ones. I use masks made by Burlway [4]. They are very soft. They fit my face perfectly and haven't stretched or shrunk. I have 10 of them. I keep clean ones in a drawer near the door. My going out ritual is now "keys mask phone wallet." [0] https://www.governor.wa.gov/news-media/inslee-announces-statewide-mask-mandate https://www.governor.wa.gov/news-media/inslee-announces-stat... [1] https://vtdigger.org/2020/07/24/scott-orders-mask-mandate/ https://vtdigger.org/2020/07/24/scott-orders-mask-mandate/ [2] https://www.newscentermaine.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/mills-signs-executive-order-mandating-mask-enforcement-extends-state-of-emergency-through-august-6/97-288108be-187f-44a0-9cd8-98185ac56fed https://www.newscentermaine.com/article/news/health/coronavi... [3] https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areasRegional=uswa&areasRegional=usid&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=usmn&areasRegional=usvt&areasRegional=usme&cumulative=1&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=cases https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areasRegional=uswa&area... [4] https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B08DXY4TBS https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B08DXY4TBS
- xxxxxxx12 5y ago
  > I have the right to participate in society without catching a dangerous disease from you. You're essentially saying that the disabled (illness is a disability) should be excluded from society. Shun the unclean and diseased? You have the option of staying inside if you're afraid of mingling with certain people.
  - disabled 5y ago
    No, this individual is stating that no matter what, people (including the disabled) have to go out in society to things like doctor’s appointments. Everyone has the right not to catch a potentially deadly disease. “Freedom” does not extend to not wearing masks during a pandemic. Your freedom stops when you are a potential asymptomatic/symptomatic spreader of a potentially deadly disease to others. Therefore, masks should be required for everyone. Also, I am disabled and I agree with this poster’s comment. It was definitely not ableist at all. It was 100% in support of masks when out in public.

sampo 5y ago

> The only RCT ever performed for self infection of SARS-2 in the community failed to reach significance. Do condoms work against sexually transmitted diseases? 5 out of 10 RCT studies reported statistically significant effect. Do condoms work against unwanted pregnancy? 0 out of 4 RCT studies reported statistically significant effect. https://jech.bmj.com/content/65/2/100 https://jech.bmj.com/content/65/2/100

__blockcipher__ 5y ago
Wow, what an intellectually dishonest description of your citation. It’s looking at interventions to promote condom usage, not condom usage. Forgive my tone but...just wow.
- sampo 5y ago
  > It’s looking at interventions to promote condom usage, not condom usage. So is the mentioned mask RCT study. They should be quite comparable.

peteretep 5y ago

First you say > Face masks ... don’t work to slow transmission whatsoever and when pushed on it, you imply that this is true because there’s been no trial on it, which is not how implication works. You then also try and suggest the presence of an unfalsifiable hypothesis which you don’t try and explain, and seems suggestive that you don’t know what the term means?

__blockcipher__ 5y ago
It’s unfalsifiable because it requires studying a whole community and sequencing every SARS-2 infection to attribute “blame” to the source of the infection. That is very difficult to do and that is why such an RCT does not exist. And yet most of the world is performing this intervention anyway. That’s the brilliance of “my mask protects you”. It’s not feasibly falsifiable. “My mask protects me” is very easy to falsify. That’s why we have one RCT that studied exactly that and failed to reach significance. Again, the theoretical MoA of masking only makes sense if SARS-2 spreads via respiratory droplets. If it spreads via aerosols, the sub-micron aerosol particles stay aloft for minutes-hours and bypass the comparatively giant holes of the mask with ease. The sightly altered directional flow is largely irrelevant. You can watch any of the many videos of someone vaping with a mask on/off to see what I’m talking about. Imagine that every time you exhale.
- peteretep 5y ago
  > It’s unfalsifiable because ... very difficult to do That’s not what that means.

claytongulick 5y ago

The theory behind universal masking rests on early studies which indicated a possibility of asymptomatic spreaders. This has mostly been falsified in at least one controlled study [1]. The Danish study is the closest thing we have to RCT on masking [2] which found no statistically significant result from universal masking. Wearing a mask while symptomatic seems like a good idea though, if you're unable to stay home for some reason, though that's good advice for most airborne contagious illnesses. I appreciated the culture of doing this when I was in Japan - if for no other reason than it told me who to keep my distance from. [1] https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4695 https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4695 [2] https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/m20-6817 https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/m20-6817

mleonhard 5y ago

Washington [0], Vermont [1], and Maine [2] all got mask mandates last summer. These states have had half the number of cases [3] as other northern-US states. Masks reduce respiratory disease transmission in hospitals. They work outside of hospitals, too. Covid-19 spreads like any other respiratory disease. If you don't want to wear a mask, then stay at home. I have the right to participate in society without catching a dangerous disease from you. If your mask is uncomfortable, then try some different ones. I use masks made by Burlway [4]. They are very soft. They fit my face perfectly and haven't stretched or shrunk. I have 10 of them. I keep clean ones in a drawer near the door. My going out ritual is now "keys mask phone wallet." [0] https://www.governor.wa.gov/news-media/inslee-announces-statewide-mask-mandate https://www.governor.wa.gov/news-media/inslee-announces-stat... [1] https://vtdigger.org/2020/07/24/scott-orders-mask-mandate/ https://vtdigger.org/2020/07/24/scott-orders-mask-mandate/ [2] https://www.newscentermaine.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/mills-signs-executive-order-mandating-mask-enforcement-extends-state-of-emergency-through-august-6/97-288108be-187f-44a0-9cd8-98185ac56fed https://www.newscentermaine.com/article/news/health/coronavi... [3] https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areasRegional=uswa&areasRegional=usid&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=usmn&areasRegional=usvt&areasRegional=usme&cumulative=1&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=cases https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areasRegional=uswa&area... [4] https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B08DXY4TBS https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B08DXY4TBS

xxxxxxx12 5y ago
> I have the right to participate in society without catching a dangerous disease from you. You're essentially saying that the disabled (illness is a disability) should be excluded from society. Shun the unclean and diseased? You have the option of staying inside if you're afraid of mingling with certain people.
- disabled 5y ago
  No, this individual is stating that no matter what, people (including the disabled) have to go out in society to things like doctor’s appointments. Everyone has the right not to catch a potentially deadly disease. “Freedom” does not extend to not wearing masks during a pandemic. Your freedom stops when you are a potential asymptomatic/symptomatic spreader of a potentially deadly disease to others. Therefore, masks should be required for everyone. Also, I am disabled and I agree with this poster’s comment. It was definitely not ableist at all. It was 100% in support of masks when out in public.