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But in almost all 1st world countries, the demand is shrinking (negative population growth in all countries). Not to mention the top heavy population in America

But in almost all 1st world countries, the demand is shrinking (negative population growth in all countries). Not to mention the top heavy population in Americas that is approaching EOL (Baby Boomers) which will rapidly shrink the demand in the next 10 years. But it actually appears from sales data that demand is increasing by a great deal. My hypothesis: speculators have been driving this market for quite some time in order to try and escape the inflation they thought "is coming any minute" since 2008. Here in my city, the rents are decreasing since COVID started and the prices keep skyrocketing. It also supports my hypothesis. Investors are just buying up properties and renting them out, lowering rents everywhere. It may come to a head sooner rather than later, once someone finds the mortgage is way higher than the renter is paying. But even then, I think many owners are willing to take a hair cut on their mortgage because they feel like "the market has performed so well, its worth it". But how long?

ska 5y ago
> (negative population growth in all countries). This does not seem to be true, most of them have small (< 1%) but positive growth I think. What were you basing it on? Some of them have negative birth rates, but that isn't the same thing - and to lead to an overall decline in population immigration would have to be reduced by more than the delta.
- beiller 5y ago
  Yeah sorry I meant negative birth rate. But my assumption of negative growth is based on post covid, since border flow is severely restricted and people are just avoiding moving for the last 1year+. So I have assumed negative growth since covid and I have no source to back it up, yet the real estate market hitting record highs in my country, as a kind of hint that the prices are not driven by immigration demand but purely speculation. I would love to see population growth data for the last 12 months. I will look it up.

ska 5y ago

> (negative population growth in all countries). This does not seem to be true, most of them have small (< 1%) but positive growth I think. What were you basing it on? Some of them have negative birth rates, but that isn't the same thing - and to lead to an overall decline in population immigration would have to be reduced by more than the delta.

beiller 5y ago
Yeah sorry I meant negative birth rate. But my assumption of negative growth is based on post covid, since border flow is severely restricted and people are just avoiding moving for the last 1year+. So I have assumed negative growth since covid and I have no source to back it up, yet the real estate market hitting record highs in my country, as a kind of hint that the prices are not driven by immigration demand but purely speculation. I would love to see population growth data for the last 12 months. I will look it up.