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So has "Fusion is always 30 years away"[1] turned into "Fusion is always 10 years away?" 1 https://www.discovermagazine.com/technology/why-nuclear-fusion-is-al

So has "Fusion is always 30 years away"[1] turned into "Fusion is always 10 years away?" 1 https://www.discovermagazine.com/technology/why-nuclear-fusion-is-always-30-years-away https://www.discovermagazine.com/technology/why-nuclear-fusi...

dmckeon 5y ago
Meanwhile, gravitic containment is working now, and the results are only eight minutes in the future.
- maxcan 5y ago
  yeah, but it fries anything that comes close. tough to scale down to a controllable level. AFAIK, the most efficient direct energy capture of gravitic confinement fusion are solar panels placed about 90 million miles from the fusion source. Huge loss of energy there.
ncmncm 5y ago
No, it is still 30+ years away. Emphasis on "+" But ITER was never even promised to be ready to fire up before 2050, and there has never been any intention expressed to generate power with it, commercial or otherwise. The promise was that after ITER work is done, they might be ready to spend $100B-300B on a commercial plant to be completed around 2100. No commercial power will ever be generated by Tokamak. Its sole reason for still being pursued is as a jobs program for hot-neutron physicists, to maintain a population to draw on for occasional weapons work, although the large dollar amounts involved are a convenient channel to funnel public money to select private pockets. Of course, by 2100 we will have overwhelmingly better choices available than this massive boondoggle. Even fission is more viable. Even orbital solar is more viable. More likely, terrestrial solar and wind will have long since crushed all competition except, maybe, geothermal. In the meantime, every cent spent on Tokamak is stolen from work on actually viable ways to counter global climate disruption. Has been for decades. There is one small boon from Tokamak work. Besides the hot-neutron scam, they are training up a generation of plasma physicists, which will have important, thus far unknown benefits if we don't blow all the opportunities.
- hobscoop 5y ago
  ITER is planning to do its flagship D+T runs in 2035, not 2050. While inertial confinement fusion facilities like NIF are also used for weapons work, the physics of magnetic confinement fusion plasmas are quite different from the physics needed for bombs. There's no chain reaction, and the 'hot neutron physics' is actually a very small part of the overall system. The neutrons essentially go in a straight line until they hit the wall; they don't interact with the plasma itself. Most people in magnetic confinement fusion are studying magnetized plasma waves, instabilities, turbulence, and other collective behavior that are in a very different regime from bomb physics.
shakezula 5y ago
That statement in and of itself proves that fusion is making considerable gains. Maybe if fusion had been properly funded in the mid-1900s like it should've been (and was planned to be) we wouldn't have this meme.

dmckeon 5y ago

Meanwhile, gravitic containment is working now, and the results are only eight minutes in the future.

maxcan 5y ago
yeah, but it fries anything that comes close. tough to scale down to a controllable level. AFAIK, the most efficient direct energy capture of gravitic confinement fusion are solar panels placed about 90 million miles from the fusion source. Huge loss of energy there.

ncmncm 5y ago

No, it is still 30+ years away. Emphasis on "+" But ITER was never even promised to be ready to fire up before 2050, and there has never been any intention expressed to generate power with it, commercial or otherwise. The promise was that after ITER work is done, they might be ready to spend $100B-300B on a commercial plant to be completed around 2100. No commercial power will ever be generated by Tokamak. Its sole reason for still being pursued is as a jobs program for hot-neutron physicists, to maintain a population to draw on for occasional weapons work, although the large dollar amounts involved are a convenient channel to funnel public money to select private pockets. Of course, by 2100 we will have overwhelmingly better choices available than this massive boondoggle. Even fission is more viable. Even orbital solar is more viable. More likely, terrestrial solar and wind will have long since crushed all competition except, maybe, geothermal. In the meantime, every cent spent on Tokamak is stolen from work on actually viable ways to counter global climate disruption. Has been for decades. There is one small boon from Tokamak work. Besides the hot-neutron scam, they are training up a generation of plasma physicists, which will have important, thus far unknown benefits if we don't blow all the opportunities.

hobscoop 5y ago
ITER is planning to do its flagship D+T runs in 2035, not 2050. While inertial confinement fusion facilities like NIF are also used for weapons work, the physics of magnetic confinement fusion plasmas are quite different from the physics needed for bombs. There's no chain reaction, and the 'hot neutron physics' is actually a very small part of the overall system. The neutrons essentially go in a straight line until they hit the wall; they don't interact with the plasma itself. Most people in magnetic confinement fusion are studying magnetized plasma waves, instabilities, turbulence, and other collective behavior that are in a very different regime from bomb physics.

shakezula 5y ago

That statement in and of itself proves that fusion is making considerable gains. Maybe if fusion had been properly funded in the mid-1900s like it should've been (and was planned to be) we wouldn't have this meme.