4 ms·

Deaths are clearly exponentially increasing: https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-03-01..latest&picker

• collyw 5y ago
  It's following a gompertz curve like every other country.
  • mrow84 5y ago
    The progression of deaths [0] is patently nothing like a Gompertz curve. It is bounded, of course, which is probably your point, but we are currently in a growth phase that is well modelled by an exponential curve. The Gompertz adds nothing at this stage, and does not accurately represent the periods of slowing that have already been experienced, nor the subsequent accelerations. That the population is finite is, I think we can all agree, well understood. It is, however, important to be clear about the dangers of exponential disease growth when only ~1% of a population currently has that disease and the CFR is ~1%. For any sizeable fraction of 1.3 billion that translates to a large number of people. [0] https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-03-01..latest&pickerSort=desc&pickerMetric=new_deaths_per_million&Metric=Confirmed+deaths&Interval=Cumulative&Relative+to+Population=false&Align+outbreaks=false&country=~IND https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explor...
• christophilus 5y ago
  Am I reading that correctly? The exponential spike represents approximately 1.5 deaths in a million?
  • mrow84 5y ago
    Correct, 2,023 people on the 20th April.