2 ms·

I wonder if Belarussians have become prisoners of their geography, or more precisely their neighbour? If they removed their dictator from office, then it may be

I wonder if Belarussians have become prisoners of their geography, or more precisely their neighbour? If they removed their dictator from office, then it may be very likely that Russia will use the situation to do a land grab or finance instability. If current dictator knows that, then perhaps in a twisted way they want to keep status quo, so at least people can live without fear of the civil war. This is of course unsustainable. So what are their options? Could Belarus withstand an attack from the East? I am sorry if that sounds ignorant - I don't have much knowledge about that country.

wrinkl3 6y ago
This is basically what happened in Ukraine - they overthrew a Russia-aligned dictator and had to deal with a Russian invasion within months.
reducesuffering 6y ago
> I wonder if Belarussians have become prisoners of their geography Prisoners of Geography is literally the name of the book determining this exact conclusion. Russia's history involves lots of invasions. (WW2 Germany, Mongols, etc.) Because of this, they want to secure the area around them geographically, whether by politically-aligned states or by controlling the territory themselves. West of Moscow is just huge plains, there's no defensible moat, so they think they need to secure all of the area until they geographically have a defensible moat for their army. That moat / natural barrier is the narrower choke-point on the left side of Poland, the Romanian mountains, Black Sea, and Baltic sea. That's also not-coincidentally what the USSR controlled. So Russia wants Ukraine, Belarus, the Baltic states, Moldova, and even Poland. That's why you see even Poland under Russian influence operations, as another commenter pointed out.