4 ms·

Well, a source of havoc, maybe. But one among many, there is still Malaria, Tuberculosis, Dengue Fever, Ebola, HIV. All with far more significant consequences.

by corty 6y ago

Well, a source of havoc, maybe. But one among many, there is still Malaria, Tuberculosis, Dengue Fever, Ebola, HIV. All with far more significant consequences. That we are worrying as much about Corona as we do in the West is a consequence of those ailments being (mostly) irrelevant here.

_djo_ 6y ago
This is inaccurate. COVID-19 has been far deadlier than any of those already-devastating existing diseases and conditions in places like India, South Africa, and Brazil. In South Africa for instance, COVID-19 killed more people in 2020 than HIV/AIDS or TB.
- corty 6y ago
  That those diseases have a lower death-count today is a consequence of the havoc they have brought historically and of the current disruption they cause in isolating the infected, vaccinations, necessary medications and hospital beds, etc. In all likelyhood COVID-19 will go the way of the spanish flu (with or without vaccination only changes the time it takes) and become less of a problem due to partial immunity in the population. Most children will get it once, after which any reinfection by a similar strain will be mostly harmless. So COVID-19 will maybe continue to be a problem for 3 or 4 years, but after that we will still be stuck with HIV, TB and others, where the outlook is not so rosy.
  - vondro 6y ago
    Isn't HIV mostly a solved problem nowadays? Genuine question.
    - corty 6y ago
      Only in more developed countries where your medical insurance pays the bills. And even there it can wreak havoc on the public health insurance system due to the excessive cost of keeping HIV-positives alive. Generally, HIV is "solved" by a lifelong treatment with antiretrovirals. Those are not free of side-effects, very expensive and not available everywhere. In many places in less-developed countries, antiretrovirals are simply unaffordable for those affected. And even if they are affordable, the recurrent cost of the drugs keeps them in a lifelong state of poverty and dependency. Society as a whole may finance those drugs, but at the cost of other necessary things of course. Also, some countries try to produce those drugs themselves on the cheap, getting them into hot water with the western patent lobby and preventing trade agreements and the like, damaging their economy. And the epidemic itself is still ongoing, sometimes even fueled by infected people no longer caring, due to the availability of antiretrovirals that render AIDS "harmless". All in all, HIV is still spreading, is still not cured, treatment is problematic and it still wreaks havoc. Maybe only a little less.
- Clewza313 6y ago
  HIV, malaria, and many other diseases endemic to the third world target people in the prime of life, wreaking havoc on families. By contrast, most (not all, but most) deaths from COVID are the elderly. Any mention of this tends to bring on "how dare you say one life is more valuable than another" downvotes, but since this thread is considering economic impact, it's a relevant factor.
  - inglor_cz 6y ago
    "By contrast, most (not all, but most) deaths from COVID are the elderly." In the developed world. Are you sure that this is true in Africa? Because if someone already has HIV or TBC, I can imagine Covid giving him the final push, even though the patient is only 35.
  - collyw 6y ago
    Personally I see a teenage suicide as a result of lockdown far more tragic than an 83 year old death from covid (that's the average age of Covid death in the UK. The average age of death in the UK is 82). 60+ years of life lost versus a maybe 2 or 3.
    - corty 6y ago
      Even so, preliminary numbers where available seem to show the suicide rate to be falling. So in the loss-of-years calculation, all is quite fine actually...
      - mensetmanusman 6y ago
        https://www.politico.com/states/new-jersey/story/2020/08/13/cdc-one-quarter-of-young-adults-contemplated-suicide-during-pandemic-1308474 https://www.politico.com/states/new-jersey/story/2020/08/13/...
        InitialLastName 6y ago
        New rule for news consumption: stories that present poll results for a period without a baseline for comparison are trying to mislead you. What portion of people between 18-24 contemplate suicide in a given year? Turn to substance use to cope with stress? I know that I lived my life from 18-24 without any global pandemic lockdowns and both "contemplated" suicide at different points and used substances to cope with stress. I'd assume many others did as well. Given that we know suicides didn't go up in 2020 the way the fearmongers said they would (they went down), what are you arguing for?
- KaiserPro 6y ago
  Your assertion lacks nuance TB, AIDs and poor sanitation are killers, and more deadly. but with the exception of a cholera outbreak, they are chronic. That is, take a long time. Covid is acute and causes services to be overwhelmed, which causes higher mortality for everyone.

by corty 6y ago

_djo_ 6y ago

This is inaccurate. COVID-19 has been far deadlier than any of those already-devastating existing diseases and conditions in places like India, South Africa, and Brazil. In South Africa for instance, COVID-19 killed more people in 2020 than HIV/AIDS or TB.

corty 6y ago
That those diseases have a lower death-count today is a consequence of the havoc they have brought historically and of the current disruption they cause in isolating the infected, vaccinations, necessary medications and hospital beds, etc. In all likelyhood COVID-19 will go the way of the spanish flu (with or without vaccination only changes the time it takes) and become less of a problem due to partial immunity in the population. Most children will get it once, after which any reinfection by a similar strain will be mostly harmless. So COVID-19 will maybe continue to be a problem for 3 or 4 years, but after that we will still be stuck with HIV, TB and others, where the outlook is not so rosy.
- vondro 6y ago
  Isn't HIV mostly a solved problem nowadays? Genuine question.
  - corty 6y ago
    Only in more developed countries where your medical insurance pays the bills. And even there it can wreak havoc on the public health insurance system due to the excessive cost of keeping HIV-positives alive. Generally, HIV is "solved" by a lifelong treatment with antiretrovirals. Those are not free of side-effects, very expensive and not available everywhere. In many places in less-developed countries, antiretrovirals are simply unaffordable for those affected. And even if they are affordable, the recurrent cost of the drugs keeps them in a lifelong state of poverty and dependency. Society as a whole may finance those drugs, but at the cost of other necessary things of course. Also, some countries try to produce those drugs themselves on the cheap, getting them into hot water with the western patent lobby and preventing trade agreements and the like, damaging their economy. And the epidemic itself is still ongoing, sometimes even fueled by infected people no longer caring, due to the availability of antiretrovirals that render AIDS "harmless". All in all, HIV is still spreading, is still not cured, treatment is problematic and it still wreaks havoc. Maybe only a little less.
Clewza313 6y ago
HIV, malaria, and many other diseases endemic to the third world target people in the prime of life, wreaking havoc on families. By contrast, most (not all, but most) deaths from COVID are the elderly. Any mention of this tends to bring on "how dare you say one life is more valuable than another" downvotes, but since this thread is considering economic impact, it's a relevant factor.
- inglor_cz 6y ago
  "By contrast, most (not all, but most) deaths from COVID are the elderly." In the developed world. Are you sure that this is true in Africa? Because if someone already has HIV or TBC, I can imagine Covid giving him the final push, even though the patient is only 35.
- collyw 6y ago
  Personally I see a teenage suicide as a result of lockdown far more tragic than an 83 year old death from covid (that's the average age of Covid death in the UK. The average age of death in the UK is 82). 60+ years of life lost versus a maybe 2 or 3.
  - corty 6y ago
    Even so, preliminary numbers where available seem to show the suicide rate to be falling. So in the loss-of-years calculation, all is quite fine actually...
    - mensetmanusman 6y ago
      https://www.politico.com/states/new-jersey/story/2020/08/13/cdc-one-quarter-of-young-adults-contemplated-suicide-during-pandemic-1308474 https://www.politico.com/states/new-jersey/story/2020/08/13/...
      - InitialLastName 6y ago
        New rule for news consumption: stories that present poll results for a period without a baseline for comparison are trying to mislead you. What portion of people between 18-24 contemplate suicide in a given year? Turn to substance use to cope with stress? I know that I lived my life from 18-24 without any global pandemic lockdowns and both "contemplated" suicide at different points and used substances to cope with stress. I'd assume many others did as well. Given that we know suicides didn't go up in 2020 the way the fearmongers said they would (they went down), what are you arguing for?
KaiserPro 6y ago
Your assertion lacks nuance TB, AIDs and poor sanitation are killers, and more deadly. but with the exception of a cholera outbreak, they are chronic. That is, take a long time. Covid is acute and causes services to be overwhelmed, which causes higher mortality for everyone.