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It is sadly predictable that the pandemic would end up becoming a permanent source of havoc in less developed part of the world, even as it comes under control

It is sadly predictable that the pandemic would end up becoming a permanent source of havoc in less developed part of the world, even as it comes under control in the west. This will for certain be with us for many years to come and will further distort the difference between rich and poor. Not at least helped by the nationalism in the west in form of export controls and patents.

wiz21c 6y ago
> less developed What do you mean by "less developed" ? Those people have been with us on earth for the very same period of time as any other human. So they have been developing themselves culturally, economically, whatever-ally as much as any other human.
- namanaggarwal 6y ago
  I think OP meant less developed countries and not less developed people
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
- chillacy 6y ago
  I can see the desire not to look down on others, but economic development isn’t measured in time as much as wealth accumulation. Wealth begets wealth too, so the wealthy countries today tend to be the winners of the industrial revolution (most of Western Europe and Japan which industrialized early).
kjakm 6y ago
It's not exactly under control in the west yet either. Mainland Europe seems to be going through a pretty serious third wave.
- Deukhoofd 6y ago
  Third wave? The Netherlands never really left the second one.
  - Tepix 6y ago
    Looking at https://coronadashboard.government.nl/landelijk/positief-geteste-mensen https://coronadashboard.government.nl/landelijk/positief-get... i'd say the first wave didn't really happen in the Netherlands, there was a wave peaking on Oct 30th, next one Dec 19th and the current one is still growing after going through a low on Feb 9th 2021.
- drsim 6y ago
  With the borders shut, all European countries are experiencing it quite differently. Here in Denmark we dodged the third wave and are now easing restrictions.
- collyw 6y ago
  We have had a fourth wave hyped up here in Spain. Small ripple would be more accurate.
- refurb 6y ago
  Canada is being ravaged by it right now. Some of the worst numbers since it began. We’re talking 60x the cases from October (BC). Not sure if it’s the reason why but after the 2nd wave started to burn out they opened up quite quickly. I think people got complacent.
op03 6y ago
Occasional source of havoc - yes. Permanent source of havoc - no. Vaccinations have ramped up in ways no one has every seen in history. And lots of lessons were learnt during the first few waves from all the blundering that happened. Nothing is static and predictable about systems that learn and change from day to day. Stick that on your Fridge. And re-examine how your prediction is doing next month.
- throwaway4good 6y ago
  We are no where near having vacinated the whole world. And unless we change approach (from vaccine hoarding, nationalism, patents, export restriction) we likely wont get there.
corty 6y ago
Well, a source of havoc, maybe. But one among many, there is still Malaria, Tuberculosis, Dengue Fever, Ebola, HIV. All with far more significant consequences. That we are worrying as much about Corona as we do in the West is a consequence of those ailments being (mostly) irrelevant here.
- _djo_ 6y ago
  This is inaccurate. COVID-19 has been far deadlier than any of those already-devastating existing diseases and conditions in places like India, South Africa, and Brazil. In South Africa for instance, COVID-19 killed more people in 2020 than HIV/AIDS or TB.
  - corty 6y ago
    That those diseases have a lower death-count today is a consequence of the havoc they have brought historically and of the current disruption they cause in isolating the infected, vaccinations, necessary medications and hospital beds, etc. In all likelyhood COVID-19 will go the way of the spanish flu (with or without vaccination only changes the time it takes) and become less of a problem due to partial immunity in the population. Most children will get it once, after which any reinfection by a similar strain will be mostly harmless. So COVID-19 will maybe continue to be a problem for 3 or 4 years, but after that we will still be stuck with HIV, TB and others, where the outlook is not so rosy.
    - vondro 6y ago
      Isn't HIV mostly a solved problem nowadays? Genuine question.
      - corty 6y ago
        Only in more developed countries where your medical insurance pays the bills. And even there it can wreak havoc on the public health insurance system due to the excessive cost of keeping HIV-positives alive. Generally, HIV is "solved" by a lifelong treatment with antiretrovirals. Those are not free of side-effects, very expensive and not available everywhere. In many places in less-developed countries, antiretrovirals are simply unaffordable for those affected. And even if they are affordable, the recurrent cost of the drugs keeps them in a lifelong state of poverty and dependency. Society as a whole may finance those drugs, but at the cost of other necessary things of course. Also, some countries try to produce those drugs themselves on the cheap, getting them into hot water with the western patent lobby and preventing trade agreements and the like, damaging their economy. And the epidemic itself is still ongoing, sometimes even fueled by infected people no longer caring, due to the availability of antiretrovirals that render AIDS "harmless". All in all, HIV is still spreading, is still not cured, treatment is problematic and it still wreaks havoc. Maybe only a little less.
esperent 6y ago
I live in a less developed part of the world - Vietnam - and the government and people have been incredibly successful in controlling the virus here. Aside from two short lockdowns of a couple of weeks, my life has barely been affected (except for the lack of tourists and the fact I can't travel outside the country). Local tourism and business seems to be booming. Meanwhile I hear all the stories from back home in Europe, and from the US... And my sympathies go out to everyone living though that. But I don't the development level of a country has much at all to do with how well it's handling this pandemic. The only frustrating thing is how clearly it's been highlighted that the rich and powerful countries get all the vaccines and we'll only get them here once everyone in the west has been vaccinated three times over.
- thibran 6y ago
  Please differentiate more. The US and UK don't share, but the EU does. The egoism of some countries hurt the idea of a free and equal world a lot these days...
  - esperent 6y ago
    No, the EU doesn't, unfortunately. > EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced that the bloc will not share coronavirus vaccines with other countries until it has "a better production situation in the EU." This is reported by DW. https://112.international/politics/eu-wont-share-covid-vaccine-with-poor-countries-yet-59913.html https://112.international/politics/eu-wont-share-covid-vacci...
    - noja 6y ago
      > No, the EU doesn't, unfortunately. The EU did. For a year. And now it doesn't, since the UK and USA do not.
      - esperent 6y ago
        > For a year The first vaccine only came out about 4 months ago. However, you are right - the EU has donated about 30 million doses, enough for 15 million people. It's not nothing, but not that much either.
makomk 6y ago
India is actually one of the countries imposing export controls on vaccines in order to redirect them to domestic use, with the result that a lot of other developing countries don't have any at all...
tim333 6y ago
>Not at least helped by the nationalism in the west in form of export controls and patents. In India's case it was one of the first places to be licensed to make the AstraZenca vaccine, I think at no cost. The Serum Institute there, the world's largest vaccine producer, was the first place to start producing vaccine in quantity. I'm not sure you can really blame the west here. Though recently the US have been blocking supplies which I hope is a temporary glitch.

wiz21c 6y ago

> less developed What do you mean by "less developed" ? Those people have been with us on earth for the very same period of time as any other human. So they have been developing themselves culturally, economically, whatever-ally as much as any other human.

namanaggarwal 6y ago
I think OP meant less developed countries and not less developed people
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
chillacy 6y ago
I can see the desire not to look down on others, but economic development isn’t measured in time as much as wealth accumulation. Wealth begets wealth too, so the wealthy countries today tend to be the winners of the industrial revolution (most of Western Europe and Japan which industrialized early).

kjakm 6y ago

It's not exactly under control in the west yet either. Mainland Europe seems to be going through a pretty serious third wave.

Deukhoofd 6y ago
Third wave? The Netherlands never really left the second one.
- Tepix 6y ago
  Looking at https://coronadashboard.government.nl/landelijk/positief-geteste-mensen https://coronadashboard.government.nl/landelijk/positief-get... i'd say the first wave didn't really happen in the Netherlands, there was a wave peaking on Oct 30th, next one Dec 19th and the current one is still growing after going through a low on Feb 9th 2021.
drsim 6y ago
With the borders shut, all European countries are experiencing it quite differently. Here in Denmark we dodged the third wave and are now easing restrictions.
collyw 6y ago
We have had a fourth wave hyped up here in Spain. Small ripple would be more accurate.
refurb 6y ago
Canada is being ravaged by it right now. Some of the worst numbers since it began. We’re talking 60x the cases from October (BC). Not sure if it’s the reason why but after the 2nd wave started to burn out they opened up quite quickly. I think people got complacent.

op03 6y ago

Occasional source of havoc - yes. Permanent source of havoc - no. Vaccinations have ramped up in ways no one has every seen in history. And lots of lessons were learnt during the first few waves from all the blundering that happened. Nothing is static and predictable about systems that learn and change from day to day. Stick that on your Fridge. And re-examine how your prediction is doing next month.

throwaway4good 6y ago
We are no where near having vacinated the whole world. And unless we change approach (from vaccine hoarding, nationalism, patents, export restriction) we likely wont get there.

corty 6y ago

Well, a source of havoc, maybe. But one among many, there is still Malaria, Tuberculosis, Dengue Fever, Ebola, HIV. All with far more significant consequences. That we are worrying as much about Corona as we do in the West is a consequence of those ailments being (mostly) irrelevant here.

_djo_ 6y ago
This is inaccurate. COVID-19 has been far deadlier than any of those already-devastating existing diseases and conditions in places like India, South Africa, and Brazil. In South Africa for instance, COVID-19 killed more people in 2020 than HIV/AIDS or TB.
- corty 6y ago
  That those diseases have a lower death-count today is a consequence of the havoc they have brought historically and of the current disruption they cause in isolating the infected, vaccinations, necessary medications and hospital beds, etc. In all likelyhood COVID-19 will go the way of the spanish flu (with or without vaccination only changes the time it takes) and become less of a problem due to partial immunity in the population. Most children will get it once, after which any reinfection by a similar strain will be mostly harmless. So COVID-19 will maybe continue to be a problem for 3 or 4 years, but after that we will still be stuck with HIV, TB and others, where the outlook is not so rosy.
  - vondro 6y ago
    Isn't HIV mostly a solved problem nowadays? Genuine question.
    - corty 6y ago
      Only in more developed countries where your medical insurance pays the bills. And even there it can wreak havoc on the public health insurance system due to the excessive cost of keeping HIV-positives alive. Generally, HIV is "solved" by a lifelong treatment with antiretrovirals. Those are not free of side-effects, very expensive and not available everywhere. In many places in less-developed countries, antiretrovirals are simply unaffordable for those affected. And even if they are affordable, the recurrent cost of the drugs keeps them in a lifelong state of poverty and dependency. Society as a whole may finance those drugs, but at the cost of other necessary things of course. Also, some countries try to produce those drugs themselves on the cheap, getting them into hot water with the western patent lobby and preventing trade agreements and the like, damaging their economy. And the epidemic itself is still ongoing, sometimes even fueled by infected people no longer caring, due to the availability of antiretrovirals that render AIDS "harmless". All in all, HIV is still spreading, is still not cured, treatment is problematic and it still wreaks havoc. Maybe only a little less.

esperent 6y ago

I live in a less developed part of the world - Vietnam - and the government and people have been incredibly successful in controlling the virus here. Aside from two short lockdowns of a couple of weeks, my life has barely been affected (except for the lack of tourists and the fact I can't travel outside the country). Local tourism and business seems to be booming. Meanwhile I hear all the stories from back home in Europe, and from the US... And my sympathies go out to everyone living though that. But I don't the development level of a country has much at all to do with how well it's handling this pandemic. The only frustrating thing is how clearly it's been highlighted that the rich and powerful countries get all the vaccines and we'll only get them here once everyone in the west has been vaccinated three times over.

thibran 6y ago
Please differentiate more. The US and UK don't share, but the EU does. The egoism of some countries hurt the idea of a free and equal world a lot these days...
- esperent 6y ago
  No, the EU doesn't, unfortunately. > EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced that the bloc will not share coronavirus vaccines with other countries until it has "a better production situation in the EU." This is reported by DW. https://112.international/politics/eu-wont-share-covid-vaccine-with-poor-countries-yet-59913.html https://112.international/politics/eu-wont-share-covid-vacci...
  - noja 6y ago
    > No, the EU doesn't, unfortunately. The EU did. For a year. And now it doesn't, since the UK and USA do not.
    - esperent 6y ago
      > For a year The first vaccine only came out about 4 months ago. However, you are right - the EU has donated about 30 million doses, enough for 15 million people. It's not nothing, but not that much either.

makomk 6y ago

India is actually one of the countries imposing export controls on vaccines in order to redirect them to domestic use, with the result that a lot of other developing countries don't have any at all...

tim333 6y ago

>Not at least helped by the nationalism in the west in form of export controls and patents. In India's case it was one of the first places to be licensed to make the AstraZenca vaccine, I think at no cost. The Serum Institute there, the world's largest vaccine producer, was the first place to start producing vaccine in quantity. I'm not sure you can really blame the west here. Though recently the US have been blocking supplies which I hope is a temporary glitch.