5 ms·

Not leading to deaths, but just increasing case numbers, that is good news.

throwaway4good 6y ago
How reliable are the numbers coming out of India? Test positivity rates of 15% would suggest under-reporting / under-testing.
- thecleaner 6y ago
  What are you talking about ? A random sample with positivity rate of 20percent would indicate one in 5 has covid. Why are you posting such conspiratorial comments with a throwaway account ?
  - dang 5y ago
    Would you please stop posting in the flamewar style to HN? You've been doing it repeatedly and we ban such accounts. Please don't attack fellow users and please omit swipes like "What are you talking about" from your comments here. If another comment is wrong, it suffices to reply with accurate information. Actually it's much more credible that way. If you toss in gratuitous swipes, you discredit the accurate information you're (by hypothesis) adding, which is bad for the truth. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
    - thecleaner 5y ago
      Sure. Apologies.
- usueye 6y ago
  It is under reported: https://scroll.in/article/992217/as-the-dead-pile-up-in-gujarat-the-states-media-is-on-a-warpath-with-the-government-over-covid-19 https://scroll.in/article/992217/as-the-dead-pile-up-in-guja... https://thewire.in/government/ghaziabad-agra-jhansi-bareilly-covid-death-data-up-government https://thewire.in/government/ghaziabad-agra-jhansi-bareilly... This is either to save the image of state or central govt.
phnofive 6y ago
Deaths have crossed 1700 per day, also a record high.
- mulvya 6y ago
  The CFR in Mumbai, so far, is less than half of the first wave. But due to the rapid rise in cases (elsewhere; Mumbai appears to have peaked on 7 Apr), there's a crunch in beds and especially oxygen.
  - Hiopl 6y ago
    That's always been the biggest fear with Covid, so that's not unexpected. Long ICU durations, lack of sufficient ICU spots and staff, high infection rate, low case fatality rate still means it can quickly overwhelm hospitals and lead to much higher rates of death overall. People crying "it's just a flu" were always missing the point.
    - FriendlyNormie 6y ago
      You’d look good with blood gushing out of the stump on your neck where your head used to be.
    - mulvya 6y ago
      But there is another factor, only recently mentioned in Indian media. The fear factor causes many of those with means to insist on hospitalization. This article talks about it in the context of celebs [1] but I've seen it among my relatives as well where healthy young adults with moderate/high Ct values are admitted on insistence of their parents or themselves. I read similar reporting about self-arranged oxygen use as well. [1]: https://www.timesnownews.com/mumbai/article/mumbai-film-stars-cricketers-occupying-hospital-beds-despite-mild-covid-19-symptoms-leading-to-shortage/744637 https://www.timesnownews.com/mumbai/article/mumbai-film-star...
      - Hiopl 6y ago
        That's interesting, thanks. Makes me wonder how widespread it is, but when spots are scarce and every bed counts, it's awful all the same. Also ties back into the idea that governments need to act earlier than might seem necessary.
makomk 6y ago
Do we even know how many deaths it's leading to? From the article: "A Financial Times analysis also points to under-reporting of deaths. Local news reports for seven districts across the states of Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Bihar show that while at least 1,833 people are known to have died of Covid-19 in recent days, based mainly on cremations, only 228 have been officially reported. In the Jamnagar district in Gujarat, 100 people died of Covid-19 but only one Covid death was reported."
Cthulhu_ 6y ago
It's ignorant to maintain the position not dying from it is enough to not give a shit about it. It's still a crippling disease that can cause organ scarring and long-term illness, and letting it run free provides it with a breeding ground to provide new variants. I mean the past year and a half have been a real life version of Plague Inc; the 'contagion' marker and mutations have been played with so far, the 'deadliness' factor may mutate next.
- collyw 6y ago
  How can you say it causes long term damage when it has barely been around for a year?
  - kanche 6y ago
    Say when one gets pneumonia during covid can be quite sure that it will afflict long term issues on the lung functioning.
  - treeman79 6y ago
    Some of us having serious lingering symptoms. I was on blood thinners before. Since covid my blood clots far more quickly now. I can’t miss any doses of blood thinner or symptoms start up fast.
- dang 5y ago
  "Please respond to the strongest plausible interpretation of what someone says, not a weaker one that's easier to criticize. Assume good faith." "When disagreeing, please reply to the argument instead of calling names. 'That is idiotic; 1 + 1 is 2, not 3' can be shortened to '1 + 1 is 2, not 3.'" https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
_Microft 6y ago
People do not get sick and die on the same day from Covid. Numbers of deaths lag by a few weeks. The worst is yet to come :(
detaro 6y ago
Yes, that's what our politicians here in Germany also said. And now they don't get why people are mad at them, who could have known that the thing hospitals, the state epidemic institute and other experts warned about would actually happen, and its totally unfair to blame them for needless deaths!
capybara_2020 6y ago
It is putting people into a very precarious financial situation. I know more that a few people who have to borrow a lot of money when their loved ones ended up in hospital and the long term effects are unknown with people being put in the ICU with a 70% loss in lung function. And then being discharged either because they can no longer afford to pay or because they test negative for Covid but still have a host of heath issues.
hugh-avherald 6y ago
Daily deaths are at a record high. Higher than mid last year
mrow84 6y ago
Deaths are clearly exponentially increasing: https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-03-01..latest&pickerSort=desc&pickerMetric=new_deaths_per_million&Metric=Confirmed+deaths&Interval=New+per+day&Relative+to+Population=true&Align+outbreaks=false&country=~IND https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explor...
- collyw 5y ago
  It's following a gompertz curve like every other country.
  - mrow84 5y ago
    The progression of deaths [0] is patently nothing like a Gompertz curve. It is bounded, of course, which is probably your point, but we are currently in a growth phase that is well modelled by an exponential curve. The Gompertz adds nothing at this stage, and does not accurately represent the periods of slowing that have already been experienced, nor the subsequent accelerations. That the population is finite is, I think we can all agree, well understood. It is, however, important to be clear about the dangers of exponential disease growth when only ~1% of a population currently has that disease and the CFR is ~1%. For any sizeable fraction of 1.3 billion that translates to a large number of people. [0] https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-03-01..latest&pickerSort=desc&pickerMetric=new_deaths_per_million&Metric=Confirmed+deaths&Interval=Cumulative&Relative+to+Population=false&Align+outbreaks=false&country=~IND https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explor...
- christophilus 5y ago
  Am I reading that correctly? The exponential spike represents approximately 1.5 deaths in a million?
  - mrow84 5y ago
    Correct, 2,023 people on the 20th April.

How reliable are the numbers coming out of India? Test positivity rates of 15% would suggest under-reporting / under-testing.

thecleaner 6y ago
What are you talking about ? A random sample with positivity rate of 20percent would indicate one in 5 has covid. Why are you posting such conspiratorial comments with a throwaway account ?
- dang 5y ago
  Would you please stop posting in the flamewar style to HN? You've been doing it repeatedly and we ban such accounts. Please don't attack fellow users and please omit swipes like "What are you talking about" from your comments here. If another comment is wrong, it suffices to reply with accurate information. Actually it's much more credible that way. If you toss in gratuitous swipes, you discredit the accurate information you're (by hypothesis) adding, which is bad for the truth. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
  - thecleaner 5y ago
    Sure. Apologies.
usueye 6y ago
It is under reported: https://scroll.in/article/992217/as-the-dead-pile-up-in-gujarat-the-states-media-is-on-a-warpath-with-the-government-over-covid-19 https://scroll.in/article/992217/as-the-dead-pile-up-in-guja... https://thewire.in/government/ghaziabad-agra-jhansi-bareilly-covid-death-data-up-government https://thewire.in/government/ghaziabad-agra-jhansi-bareilly... This is either to save the image of state or central govt.

phnofive 6y ago

Deaths have crossed 1700 per day, also a record high.

mulvya 6y ago
The CFR in Mumbai, so far, is less than half of the first wave. But due to the rapid rise in cases (elsewhere; Mumbai appears to have peaked on 7 Apr), there's a crunch in beds and especially oxygen.
- Hiopl 6y ago
  That's always been the biggest fear with Covid, so that's not unexpected. Long ICU durations, lack of sufficient ICU spots and staff, high infection rate, low case fatality rate still means it can quickly overwhelm hospitals and lead to much higher rates of death overall. People crying "it's just a flu" were always missing the point.
  - FriendlyNormie 6y ago
    You’d look good with blood gushing out of the stump on your neck where your head used to be.
  - mulvya 6y ago
    But there is another factor, only recently mentioned in Indian media. The fear factor causes many of those with means to insist on hospitalization. This article talks about it in the context of celebs [1] but I've seen it among my relatives as well where healthy young adults with moderate/high Ct values are admitted on insistence of their parents or themselves. I read similar reporting about self-arranged oxygen use as well. [1]: https://www.timesnownews.com/mumbai/article/mumbai-film-stars-cricketers-occupying-hospital-beds-despite-mild-covid-19-symptoms-leading-to-shortage/744637 https://www.timesnownews.com/mumbai/article/mumbai-film-star...
    - Hiopl 6y ago
      That's interesting, thanks. Makes me wonder how widespread it is, but when spots are scarce and every bed counts, it's awful all the same. Also ties back into the idea that governments need to act earlier than might seem necessary.

makomk 6y ago

Do we even know how many deaths it's leading to? From the article: "A Financial Times analysis also points to under-reporting of deaths. Local news reports for seven districts across the states of Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Bihar show that while at least 1,833 people are known to have died of Covid-19 in recent days, based mainly on cremations, only 228 have been officially reported. In the Jamnagar district in Gujarat, 100 people died of Covid-19 but only one Covid death was reported."

Cthulhu_ 6y ago

It's ignorant to maintain the position not dying from it is enough to not give a shit about it. It's still a crippling disease that can cause organ scarring and long-term illness, and letting it run free provides it with a breeding ground to provide new variants. I mean the past year and a half have been a real life version of Plague Inc; the 'contagion' marker and mutations have been played with so far, the 'deadliness' factor may mutate next.

collyw 6y ago
How can you say it causes long term damage when it has barely been around for a year?
- kanche 6y ago
  Say when one gets pneumonia during covid can be quite sure that it will afflict long term issues on the lung functioning.
- treeman79 6y ago
  Some of us having serious lingering symptoms. I was on blood thinners before. Since covid my blood clots far more quickly now. I can’t miss any doses of blood thinner or symptoms start up fast.
dang 5y ago
"Please respond to the strongest plausible interpretation of what someone says, not a weaker one that's easier to criticize. Assume good faith." "When disagreeing, please reply to the argument instead of calling names. 'That is idiotic; 1 + 1 is 2, not 3' can be shortened to '1 + 1 is 2, not 3.'" https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

_Microft 6y ago

People do not get sick and die on the same day from Covid. Numbers of deaths lag by a few weeks. The worst is yet to come :(

detaro 6y ago

Yes, that's what our politicians here in Germany also said. And now they don't get why people are mad at them, who could have known that the thing hospitals, the state epidemic institute and other experts warned about would actually happen, and its totally unfair to blame them for needless deaths!

capybara_2020 6y ago

It is putting people into a very precarious financial situation. I know more that a few people who have to borrow a lot of money when their loved ones ended up in hospital and the long term effects are unknown with people being put in the ICU with a 70% loss in lung function. And then being discharged either because they can no longer afford to pay or because they test negative for Covid but still have a host of heath issues.

hugh-avherald 6y ago

Daily deaths are at a record high. Higher than mid last year

mrow84 6y ago

Deaths are clearly exponentially increasing: https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-03-01..latest&pickerSort=desc&pickerMetric=new_deaths_per_million&Metric=Confirmed+deaths&Interval=New+per+day&Relative+to+Population=true&Align+outbreaks=false&country=~IND https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explor...

collyw 5y ago
It's following a gompertz curve like every other country.
- mrow84 5y ago
  The progression of deaths [0] is patently nothing like a Gompertz curve. It is bounded, of course, which is probably your point, but we are currently in a growth phase that is well modelled by an exponential curve. The Gompertz adds nothing at this stage, and does not accurately represent the periods of slowing that have already been experienced, nor the subsequent accelerations. That the population is finite is, I think we can all agree, well understood. It is, however, important to be clear about the dangers of exponential disease growth when only ~1% of a population currently has that disease and the CFR is ~1%. For any sizeable fraction of 1.3 billion that translates to a large number of people. [0] https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-03-01..latest&pickerSort=desc&pickerMetric=new_deaths_per_million&Metric=Confirmed+deaths&Interval=Cumulative&Relative+to+Population=false&Align+outbreaks=false&country=~IND https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explor...
christophilus 5y ago
Am I reading that correctly? The exponential spike represents approximately 1.5 deaths in a million?
- mrow84 5y ago
  Correct, 2,023 people on the 20th April.