Long-term effects follow a bell curve, so if they took 1-2 years to show up in average, with 200M vaccinated people, we would see initial cases already. Also,

Long-term effects follow a bell curve, so if they took 1-2 years to show up in average, with 200M vaccinated people, we would see initial cases already. Also, there have been no long term effects of a vaccine that didn’t begin in a first month-post vaccination, ever. There is no theory even on how would it be possible for them to manifest after more than a year if nothing happened before.