3 ms·

That claim you’ve just made is completely inconsistent with evidence showing much higher side-effect rates for mRNA over traditional formulations. Moderna has

That claim you’ve just made is completely inconsistent with evidence showing much higher side-effect rates for mRNA over traditional formulations. Moderna has something like an 80% incidence of fever after the second shot. That incidence of side-effect is unheard of, but in the opposite direction you claimed. Now, this isn’t dangerous, of course.

nojito 5y ago
This really isn’t true. A simple search through VAERs shows negligible difference between j&j and moderna/pfizer
- nerdponx 5y ago
  But VAERS data also shows significantly more serious adverse incidents compared to other widely-distributed vaccines like polio and hepatitis B.
  - nojito 5y ago
    All that means is that COVID is different. Also your use of the word "significant" is very suspect.
    - nerdponx 5y ago
      I didn't mean "statistically significant" or anything otherwise technical. This is the data I pulled [0] (apologies to mobile users for the formatting, it's TSV): COVID19 VACCINE (COVID19) 8,507 DIPHTHERIA AND TETANUS TOXOIDS ACELLULAR PERTUSSIS POLIOVIRUS INACTIVATED HAEMOPHILUS INFLUENZA B AND HEPATITIS B VACCINE (HEXAVAX) (6VAX-F) 29 DIPHTHERIA AND TETANUS TOXOIDS AND ACELLULAR PERTUSSIS VACCINE + HEPATITIS B + INACTIVATED POLIOVIRUS VACCINE (DTAPHEPBIP) 2,247 DIPHTHERIA/TETANUS/PERTUSSIS/HEPATITIS B (DTPHEP) 8 HEPATITIS A AND HEPATITIS B VACCINE (HEPAB) 256 HEPATITIS B VACCINE (HEP) 5,991 With the query criteria: Serious: Yes State / Territory: The United States/Territories/Unknown Vaccine Products: COVID19 VACCINE (COVID19); DIPHTHERIA AND TETANUS TOXOIDS ACELLULAR PERTUSSIS POLIOVIRUS INACTIVATED HAEMOPHILUS INFLUENZA B AND HEPATITIS B VACCINE (HEXAVAX) (6VAX-F); DIPHTHERIA AND TETANUS TOXOIDS AND ACELLULAR PERTUSSIS VACCINE + HEPATITIS B + INACTIVATED POLIOVIRUS VACCINE (DTAPHEPBIP); DIPHTHERIA/TETANUS/PERTUSSIS/HEPATITIS B (DTPHEP); HEPATITIS A AND HEPATITIS B VACCINE (HEPAB); HEPATITIS B VACCINE (HEP) Group By: Vaccine Type Show Totals: True Show Zero Values: True It looks like ~130m people in the USA have received at least one dose of any Covid-19 vaccine [1]. It's hard to pin down a number of Hep B vaccinations as of 2021, but it looks like about ~70m people had been vaccinated as of 2002 [2]. 91-93% of newborns in the USA have been vaccinated for Hep B every year since then [3], and I very roughly guessed that 3.5m babies are born every year in the USA [4]; at 91% of 3.5m over 20 years, that's very very very roughly 64m people vaccinated against Hep B since 2002. So there have (maybe) been at least as many Hep B vaccines administered as Covid vaccines, and there have been 2500 more adverse events for Covid-19 vaccines than for Hep B vaccines. The difference is smaller than I remembered, so I regret saying it's "significant". That said, we can compute 99% confidence intervals [5] for both of these (in R): library(binom) (cis <- binom.confint( x = c(8500, 6000), n = c(130000000, 134000000), conf.level = 0.99, methods = "agresti-coull" )) # method x n mean lower upper # 1 agresti-coull 8500 1.30e+08 6.538462e-05 6.358307e-05 6.723719e-05 # 2 agresti-coull 6000 1.34e+08 4.477612e-05 4.331152e-05 4.629023e-05 So yeah, the difference between 4.5 per 100k and 6.5 per 100k is statistically significant. The two estimated distributions basically don't overlap at all (which you can confirm by looking at the percentiles). You can add as many 9s as you want to the confidence interval size, and you will get basically the same result. But I don't know if this is considered a medically significant effect size. Edit: This is a back-of-the-envelope result. Please do not take it very seriously. [0]: United States Department of Health and Human Services (DHHS), Public Health Service (PHS), Centers for Disease Control (CDC) / Food and Drug Administration (FDA), Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) 1990 - 4/10/2021, CDC WONDER On-line Database. Accessed at http://wonder.cdc.gov/vaers.html http://wonder.cdc.gov/vaers.html on Apr 21, 2021 1:31:17 PM [1]: https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/graphics/2021/01/14/covid-vaccine-distribution-by-state-how-many-covid-vaccines-have-been-given-in-us-how-many-people/6599531002/ https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/graphics/2021/01/14/covid-... [2]: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm5125a3.htm https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm5125a3.htm [3]: https://apps.who.int/gho/data/view.main.80300?lang=en https://apps.who.int/gho/data/view.main.80300?lang=en [4]: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/births.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/births.htm [5]: https://stats.stackexchange.com/a/423964/36229 https://stats.stackexchange.com/a/423964/36229
      - nerdponx 5y ago
        I'm replying because I can't edit my post anymore. I'd like to know if I should be counting the "combined" vaccines like DTAPHEPBIP as "Hep B" vaccines. I have no idea, but it changes the result.
      - Fomite 5y ago
        One note: VAERS is a voluntary reporting system, and not anything close to a census of vaccine side effects - it's notoriously unreliable. People are watching the COVID-19 vaccines like hawks (for excellent reasons), while there's no reason to believe the standard schedule vaccines are receiving anywhere near the same level of scrutiny.
Fomite 5y ago
Talking about side effects that are of public health concern. The smallpox vaccine could blind you if you touched the vaccine site and then your eye. It had a 1 or 2 deaths per million vaccines side effect rate. The live-attenuated polio vaccine can revert to wild type. "Moderna has a high rate of fever and soreness at the injection site" because it's doing it's job is a very different thing.

nojito 5y ago

This really isn’t true. A simple search through VAERs shows negligible difference between j&j and moderna/pfizer

nerdponx 5y ago
But VAERS data also shows significantly more serious adverse incidents compared to other widely-distributed vaccines like polio and hepatitis B.
- nojito 5y ago
  All that means is that COVID is different. Also your use of the word "significant" is very suspect.
  - nerdponx 5y ago
    I didn't mean "statistically significant" or anything otherwise technical. This is the data I pulled [0] (apologies to mobile users for the formatting, it's TSV): COVID19 VACCINE (COVID19) 8,507 DIPHTHERIA AND TETANUS TOXOIDS ACELLULAR PERTUSSIS POLIOVIRUS INACTIVATED HAEMOPHILUS INFLUENZA B AND HEPATITIS B VACCINE (HEXAVAX) (6VAX-F) 29 DIPHTHERIA AND TETANUS TOXOIDS AND ACELLULAR PERTUSSIS VACCINE + HEPATITIS B + INACTIVATED POLIOVIRUS VACCINE (DTAPHEPBIP) 2,247 DIPHTHERIA/TETANUS/PERTUSSIS/HEPATITIS B (DTPHEP) 8 HEPATITIS A AND HEPATITIS B VACCINE (HEPAB) 256 HEPATITIS B VACCINE (HEP) 5,991 With the query criteria: Serious: Yes State / Territory: The United States/Territories/Unknown Vaccine Products: COVID19 VACCINE (COVID19); DIPHTHERIA AND TETANUS TOXOIDS ACELLULAR PERTUSSIS POLIOVIRUS INACTIVATED HAEMOPHILUS INFLUENZA B AND HEPATITIS B VACCINE (HEXAVAX) (6VAX-F); DIPHTHERIA AND TETANUS TOXOIDS AND ACELLULAR PERTUSSIS VACCINE + HEPATITIS B + INACTIVATED POLIOVIRUS VACCINE (DTAPHEPBIP); DIPHTHERIA/TETANUS/PERTUSSIS/HEPATITIS B (DTPHEP); HEPATITIS A AND HEPATITIS B VACCINE (HEPAB); HEPATITIS B VACCINE (HEP) Group By: Vaccine Type Show Totals: True Show Zero Values: True It looks like ~130m people in the USA have received at least one dose of any Covid-19 vaccine [1]. It's hard to pin down a number of Hep B vaccinations as of 2021, but it looks like about ~70m people had been vaccinated as of 2002 [2]. 91-93% of newborns in the USA have been vaccinated for Hep B every year since then [3], and I very roughly guessed that 3.5m babies are born every year in the USA [4]; at 91% of 3.5m over 20 years, that's very very very roughly 64m people vaccinated against Hep B since 2002. So there have (maybe) been at least as many Hep B vaccines administered as Covid vaccines, and there have been 2500 more adverse events for Covid-19 vaccines than for Hep B vaccines. The difference is smaller than I remembered, so I regret saying it's "significant". That said, we can compute 99% confidence intervals [5] for both of these (in R): library(binom) (cis <- binom.confint( x = c(8500, 6000), n = c(130000000, 134000000), conf.level = 0.99, methods = "agresti-coull" )) # method x n mean lower upper # 1 agresti-coull 8500 1.30e+08 6.538462e-05 6.358307e-05 6.723719e-05 # 2 agresti-coull 6000 1.34e+08 4.477612e-05 4.331152e-05 4.629023e-05 So yeah, the difference between 4.5 per 100k and 6.5 per 100k is statistically significant. The two estimated distributions basically don't overlap at all (which you can confirm by looking at the percentiles). You can add as many 9s as you want to the confidence interval size, and you will get basically the same result. But I don't know if this is considered a medically significant effect size. Edit: This is a back-of-the-envelope result. Please do not take it very seriously. [0]: United States Department of Health and Human Services (DHHS), Public Health Service (PHS), Centers for Disease Control (CDC) / Food and Drug Administration (FDA), Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) 1990 - 4/10/2021, CDC WONDER On-line Database. Accessed at http://wonder.cdc.gov/vaers.html http://wonder.cdc.gov/vaers.html on Apr 21, 2021 1:31:17 PM [1]: https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/graphics/2021/01/14/covid-vaccine-distribution-by-state-how-many-covid-vaccines-have-been-given-in-us-how-many-people/6599531002/ https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/graphics/2021/01/14/covid-... [2]: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm5125a3.htm https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm5125a3.htm [3]: https://apps.who.int/gho/data/view.main.80300?lang=en https://apps.who.int/gho/data/view.main.80300?lang=en [4]: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/births.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/births.htm [5]: https://stats.stackexchange.com/a/423964/36229 https://stats.stackexchange.com/a/423964/36229
    - nerdponx 5y ago
      I'm replying because I can't edit my post anymore. I'd like to know if I should be counting the "combined" vaccines like DTAPHEPBIP as "Hep B" vaccines. I have no idea, but it changes the result.
    - Fomite 5y ago
      One note: VAERS is a voluntary reporting system, and not anything close to a census of vaccine side effects - it's notoriously unreliable. People are watching the COVID-19 vaccines like hawks (for excellent reasons), while there's no reason to believe the standard schedule vaccines are receiving anywhere near the same level of scrutiny.

Fomite 5y ago

Talking about side effects that are of public health concern. The smallpox vaccine could blind you if you touched the vaccine site and then your eye. It had a 1 or 2 deaths per million vaccines side effect rate. The live-attenuated polio vaccine can revert to wild type. "Moderna has a high rate of fever and soreness at the injection site" because it's doing it's job is a very different thing.