4 ms·

Is this good or bad for people of Chad?

hugh-avherald 6y ago
Here is a recent opinion on him: https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/04/14/chad-election-idriss-deby-terror-sahel/ https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/04/14/chad-election-idriss-de...
throwaways885 6y ago
The subtitle might give more context: > Déby had ruled for 30 years and won a sixth term in elections last week
- kamarg 6y ago
  Are these elections or "elections"? I don't know anything about Chad.
  - pp19dd 6y ago
    "elections" - this is an outdated graphic (hasn't been updated since 2015) but scroll down to see the length of terms graph: https://projects.voanews.com/african-presidents/ https://projects.voanews.com/african-presidents/ Chad is near top of the list.
  - lucozade 6y ago
    The Democracy Index has Chad as the 163rd most democratic country. Out of 167. So, I'm guessing "elections" is probably closer to the true state of affairs.
- versale 6y ago
  "He was one of Africa’s longest-serving leaders and a close ally of western powers..." So, it depends on how you view "western powers", I guess.
  - Robotbeat 6y ago
    Yeah, well a guy who gained power through military force is being challenged by rebel fighters... live by the sword, die by the sword. What matters is what replaces him, not whether western forces like him. I don’t understand folks who are like “the west is bad, therefore anyone the west supports is bad and their passing is good.”
    - nickkell 6y ago
      The great dictator, and an even better golfer
  - jcranmer 6y ago
    You can largely replace "western powers" with "France" here. France is pretty well-known for being extremely cozy with the dictators of its former colonies, so long as they represent stability rather than insurgency and let France have some measure of influence in the country. France is pretty unabashedly neocolonial in its treatment of Francophone Africa.
    - versale 6y ago
      I'd like to add that it is France who controls Chad's currency policy with CFA francs [1]. Some people say it's a modern mean for wealth extraction from Africa. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CFA_franc https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CFA_franc
tyingq 6y ago
"Reports from N’Djamena, the capital, suggested that in the wake of Déby’s death, parliament has been dissolved and the government replaced by a transitional military council led by Déby’s 37-year-old son Mahamat Idriss Déby Itno, a general" The short-term at least, sounds worse.
- xbar 6y ago
  It calls into question who the enemy on the battlefield might have been.
- sam_goody 6y ago
  According to the linked opinion [1], not sure if it is worse. The old guard may have been the equivalent of a bad military council, and the new may have less military resources, may be a better leader, or may be more afraid of the populace. [1]: https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2020/aug/14/president-deby-chad-greatest-threat-to-stability https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2020/aug/14/p...
  - tyingq 6y ago
    I'll admit to not knowing the details, but dissolving parliament and putting the old guard's son in charge sounds like more of the old guard, but with more power.
fsloth 6y ago
While supplanting a de facto life-long dictator might sound like a good idea to some, countries with weak institutions generally just fall into the hands of another power clique (or remain in the hands of the incumbent crony dynasty if it prevails). From https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/chad/overview https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/chad/overview - "Chad ... is ranked last on the World Bank’s Human Capital Index.". This would indicate weak institutions which gives very little reason for optimism.
mminer237 6y ago
This will at the least reduce stability in the country, which to the average person is one of the most important things. Déby was a ruthless dictator fighting against ruthless Libyan-backed Islamists (and to a lesser extent Boko Haram). Both are horrible. Déby murdered political opponents and oppressed his people. The rebels used child soldiers, executed PoWs, and just want to set up their own dictatorship but Muslim. Currently, power has passed to his son, who is a general-major, so not much has changed, except he presumably has less power. This probably means more military influence in the country and less success against the rebels. Best case, his son turns out to be a better dictator than his father or least have to concede to the people more. Worst case, the discontent and political infighting leads to more instability and hardship for the country and the weakness leads to the rebels taking over.

Here is a recent opinion on him: https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/04/14/chad-election-idriss-deby-terror-sahel/ https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/04/14/chad-election-idriss-de...

throwaways885 6y ago

The subtitle might give more context: > Déby had ruled for 30 years and won a sixth term in elections last week

kamarg 6y ago
Are these elections or "elections"? I don't know anything about Chad.
- pp19dd 6y ago
  "elections" - this is an outdated graphic (hasn't been updated since 2015) but scroll down to see the length of terms graph: https://projects.voanews.com/african-presidents/ https://projects.voanews.com/african-presidents/ Chad is near top of the list.
- lucozade 6y ago
  The Democracy Index has Chad as the 163rd most democratic country. Out of 167. So, I'm guessing "elections" is probably closer to the true state of affairs.
versale 6y ago
"He was one of Africa’s longest-serving leaders and a close ally of western powers..." So, it depends on how you view "western powers", I guess.
- Robotbeat 6y ago
  Yeah, well a guy who gained power through military force is being challenged by rebel fighters... live by the sword, die by the sword. What matters is what replaces him, not whether western forces like him. I don’t understand folks who are like “the west is bad, therefore anyone the west supports is bad and their passing is good.”
  - nickkell 6y ago
    The great dictator, and an even better golfer
- jcranmer 6y ago
  You can largely replace "western powers" with "France" here. France is pretty well-known for being extremely cozy with the dictators of its former colonies, so long as they represent stability rather than insurgency and let France have some measure of influence in the country. France is pretty unabashedly neocolonial in its treatment of Francophone Africa.
  - versale 6y ago
    I'd like to add that it is France who controls Chad's currency policy with CFA francs [1]. Some people say it's a modern mean for wealth extraction from Africa. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CFA_franc https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CFA_franc

tyingq 6y ago

"Reports from N’Djamena, the capital, suggested that in the wake of Déby’s death, parliament has been dissolved and the government replaced by a transitional military council led by Déby’s 37-year-old son Mahamat Idriss Déby Itno, a general" The short-term at least, sounds worse.

xbar 6y ago
It calls into question who the enemy on the battlefield might have been.
sam_goody 6y ago
According to the linked opinion [1], not sure if it is worse. The old guard may have been the equivalent of a bad military council, and the new may have less military resources, may be a better leader, or may be more afraid of the populace. [1]: https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2020/aug/14/president-deby-chad-greatest-threat-to-stability https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2020/aug/14/p...
- tyingq 6y ago
  I'll admit to not knowing the details, but dissolving parliament and putting the old guard's son in charge sounds like more of the old guard, but with more power.

fsloth 6y ago

While supplanting a de facto life-long dictator might sound like a good idea to some, countries with weak institutions generally just fall into the hands of another power clique (or remain in the hands of the incumbent crony dynasty if it prevails). From https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/chad/overview https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/chad/overview - "Chad ... is ranked last on the World Bank’s Human Capital Index.". This would indicate weak institutions which gives very little reason for optimism.

mminer237 6y ago

This will at the least reduce stability in the country, which to the average person is one of the most important things. Déby was a ruthless dictator fighting against ruthless Libyan-backed Islamists (and to a lesser extent Boko Haram). Both are horrible. Déby murdered political opponents and oppressed his people. The rebels used child soldiers, executed PoWs, and just want to set up their own dictatorship but Muslim. Currently, power has passed to his son, who is a general-major, so not much has changed, except he presumably has less power. This probably means more military influence in the country and less success against the rebels. Best case, his son turns out to be a better dictator than his father or least have to concede to the people more. Worst case, the discontent and political infighting leads to more instability and hardship for the country and the weakness leads to the rebels taking over.