3 ms·
Show HN: Never be 100% sure cuz that's overfitting
A good relation to real life conclusions.
- minimaxir 5y agoThat's not a good joke even from a statistical modeling perspective. Logistic models can absolutely make predictions with 100% confidence.
- garmaine 5y agoNothing has 100% confidence. We could be living in the matrix and it’s all a lie. Setting a probability equal to 0% or 100% is like dividing by zero.
- pizza 5y agoThat's Cromwell's rule https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cromwell%27s_rule https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cromwell%27s_rule If your prior is 0 then you can't do Bayes updates