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> I know that hypothetically the whole of the U.K. getting into internal conflicts equal to The Troubles in Northern Ireland (my gut says 5% chance of that) cou
by selfhoster11 6y ago
> I know that hypothetically the whole of the U.K. getting into internal conflicts equal to The Troubles in Northern Ireland (my gut says 5% chance of that) could be utterly devastating to the entire fabric of the nation… but that hasn’t happened yet
If I had to guess, I'd say the conflict is much much likelier to come back post-Brexit. Now that we're out of the EU, the "open movement" hack made possible by mutual EU membership no longer works without knock-on effects (customs checks, blah blah). I can't see Boris Johnson falling on the sword to safekeep the peace in NI, so if the push comes to shove, NI is more likely to be left to fend for themselves.
- ben_w 6y agoI’m guesstimating P(The Troubles | limited to just the range and belligerents as last time) ~= 0.75 The thing I’m saying is p ~= 0.05 is P(The Troubles | scaled up from NI to whole UK), which would be ~123,500 dead and ~1,662,500 injured. This is one of several reasons why I no longer live in the U.K.