3 ms·
This is very interesting and has helped me understand something I hadn't realised before - if a disease is primarily spread by a small subset of the population(
by penteract 5y ago
This is very interesting and has helped me understand something I hadn't realised before - if a disease is primarily spread by a small subset of the population(superspreaders), but you assume otherwise, it gets very hard to do statistics.
For example, if you're trying to measure the R number, then you're sampling from a very fat tailed distribution, so it's easy to underestimate.
It also means that if an intervention (such as vitamin D) prevents transmission but not illness, it could be hard to detect/measure the impact.
(This comment is not a summary of the paper)
- Pyramus 5y agoJust to clarify that both the fat-tailed distribution of R (most people don't infect anybody) and the low secondary attack rate (low infection in house holds) are also shared by Covid, and were one of the surprises early on.