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The total crash rate in Tesla cars is not necessary less than that of say Prius cars. Comparing Tesla cars crash rate with that of the overall population is di

by nnm 5y ago

The total crash rate in Tesla cars is not necessary less than that of say Prius cars. Comparing Tesla cars crash rate with that of the overall population is dishonest: 1. drivers are biased population 2. the age of the car is biased

reissbaker 5y ago
It is not "dishonest." Toyota, AFAIK, does not publish these numbers; comparing to the national average is just the best you can do. Publishing the numbers without any comparison would be silly; what does it mean to know Tesla's accidents per mile if you not only don't know it for any other manufacturer, you also don't even know what the national average is? And while I couldn't find numbers for Prius specifically, it seems that hybrid cars are actually on average more dangerous than other cars, so I would be surprised if Tesla were not handily besting the Toyota Prius given Tesla's safety record: https://www.thecarconnection.com/news/1022235_hybrid-drivers-more-ticket-and-accident-prone https://www.thecarconnection.com/news/1022235_hybrid-drivers... Yes, there may be biases in driver population that make Tesla owners slightly more or less likely to crash. However, I think it is a very large stretch to claim that this would result in the fairly astoundingly different safety numbers. As for the age of the car: car age is mostly a statistical factor due to safety systems in newer cars. (It is also important in terms of deaths due to safety standards like crumple zones and airbags, but we are talking about a count of accidents, not deaths; if a crumple zone has been used, it is an accident.) Tesla publishes the statistics both with safety features on (4x better than national average), and the numbers for if they have been disabled which is still 2x better. I think if the claim that the crashes are concentrated in the non-Autopilot miles were true, and that Autopilot+human is more dangerous than human alone, it would be very hard to understand how the crash rate was still 2x better than the national average with safety features disabled and Autopilot off.
- FireBeyond 5y ago
  > It is not "dishonest." Toyota, AFAIK, does not publish these numbers; comparing to the national average is just the best you can do. When you know, unequivocally, that you are missing huge swathes of information, and drawing all manner of conclusions and inferences not supported by those statistics, it's not "just doing the best you can", it's "being disingenuous and misleading with numbers".
  - reissbaker 5y ago
    The real world is not perfect. People have to make the best decisions they can with the data available. I think it's better to publish the numbers that are available. Tesla can't publish Toyota's numbers, because they don't have them. I don't think they're at fault for comparing against the only benchmark available, and I think it's better to have that comparison than not. Many, many writers have claimed that Autopilot is inherently unsafe and believed it would cause massive numbers of crashes compared to traditional cars. The data shows that not to be the case.
    - davrosthedalek 5y ago
      If you make your decisions based on partial information, knowing that large parts of the information is missing, and then pretend that it's not, you are not making the best decision. The best decision must take into account that information is indeed missing.
- jtbayly 5y ago
  Really? I think I remember reading that accidents in newer cars are more rare. How does anybody know that? Can we not at least compare to similar aged cars?
  - reissbaker 5y ago
    Can we not at least compare to similar aged cars? I would love that. Do you know where to find that data though? I don't think it is published anywhere, which is why it's hard to use as a benchmark.

by nnm 5y ago

reissbaker 5y ago

It is not "dishonest." Toyota, AFAIK, does not publish these numbers; comparing to the national average is just the best you can do. Publishing the numbers without any comparison would be silly; what does it mean to know Tesla's accidents per mile if you not only don't know it for any other manufacturer, you also don't even know what the national average is? And while I couldn't find numbers for Prius specifically, it seems that hybrid cars are actually on average more dangerous than other cars, so I would be surprised if Tesla were not handily besting the Toyota Prius given Tesla's safety record: https://www.thecarconnection.com/news/1022235_hybrid-drivers-more-ticket-and-accident-prone https://www.thecarconnection.com/news/1022235_hybrid-drivers... Yes, there may be biases in driver population that make Tesla owners slightly more or less likely to crash. However, I think it is a very large stretch to claim that this would result in the fairly astoundingly different safety numbers. As for the age of the car: car age is mostly a statistical factor due to safety systems in newer cars. (It is also important in terms of deaths due to safety standards like crumple zones and airbags, but we are talking about a count of accidents, not deaths; if a crumple zone has been used, it is an accident.) Tesla publishes the statistics both with safety features on (4x better than national average), and the numbers for if they have been disabled which is still 2x better. I think if the claim that the crashes are concentrated in the non-Autopilot miles were true, and that Autopilot+human is more dangerous than human alone, it would be very hard to understand how the crash rate was still 2x better than the national average with safety features disabled and Autopilot off.

FireBeyond 5y ago
> It is not "dishonest." Toyota, AFAIK, does not publish these numbers; comparing to the national average is just the best you can do. When you know, unequivocally, that you are missing huge swathes of information, and drawing all manner of conclusions and inferences not supported by those statistics, it's not "just doing the best you can", it's "being disingenuous and misleading with numbers".
- reissbaker 5y ago
  The real world is not perfect. People have to make the best decisions they can with the data available. I think it's better to publish the numbers that are available. Tesla can't publish Toyota's numbers, because they don't have them. I don't think they're at fault for comparing against the only benchmark available, and I think it's better to have that comparison than not. Many, many writers have claimed that Autopilot is inherently unsafe and believed it would cause massive numbers of crashes compared to traditional cars. The data shows that not to be the case.
  - davrosthedalek 5y ago
    If you make your decisions based on partial information, knowing that large parts of the information is missing, and then pretend that it's not, you are not making the best decision. The best decision must take into account that information is indeed missing.
jtbayly 5y ago
Really? I think I remember reading that accidents in newer cars are more rare. How does anybody know that? Can we not at least compare to similar aged cars?
- reissbaker 5y ago
  Can we not at least compare to similar aged cars? I would love that. Do you know where to find that data though? I don't think it is published anywhere, which is why it's hard to use as a benchmark.