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I agree, I think at the end of the day, every asset gets 100% of it's value based on speculation. Though it may not be obvious. Let's say that a stock has valu

I agree, I think at the end of the day, every asset gets 100% of it's value based on speculation. Though it may not be obvious. Let's say that a stock has value because of some combination of: 1. The underlying's earnings/cash flow, and 2. Speculation (I want to buy stocks that I think other people will want to buy) But if you think about it, #1 is also just speculation. Because at the end of the day, you are risking $X to make $Y. You are placing a bet that tomorrow, some other people will come to value this stock (perhaps based on earnings) higher than you do today. So basically, speculation has always been a thing and there are enduring assets whose price is more or less agreed to be entirely based on speculation and speculation alone (e.g. gold).

repsilat 6y ago
> #1 is also just speculation. Because at the end of the day, you are risking $X to make $Y. You are placing a bet that tomorrow, some other people will come to value this stock (perhaps based on earnings) higher than you do today. Some people buy stocks for dividends never expecting to sell them, and not especially worried if the price goes down after they buy. I guess the projection of dividends coukd be called "speculation", but I don't think that's what you meant when you used the term. Other things that don't quite fit include bonds, especially short-term government bonds. If held to maturity, it's a stretch to say the value is a social construct in a meaningful way. (Non-meaningful phrasings abound of course -- by some definitions my monthly rent is speculation, because law and order and property are social constructs and I'm betting on society not changing its mind on them, but again I don't think you were making that sort of facile point.)