2 ms·

But at least if a stock goes down, there will be some reason you can point to after the fact as a cause. So you can at least make a hypothesis, test it, and see

But at least if a stock goes down, there will be some reason you can point to after the fact as a cause. So you can at least make a hypothesis, test it, and see how it turns out. You might be wrong in any number of ways, but there's usually going to be some traceable logical connection between events that happen that you can get information about afterwards (sales go up, sales go down, etc.) and the effect on the price. With crypto, I don't have that same sense. I buy, it goes up, I'm a visionary genius. I buy, it goes down, I'm a fool. I can't really point to any reason why either scenario happens, no testable hypothesis. Other than a very few events, like the coinbase IPO, that is.

xur17 6y ago
Is that true over short time periods for stocks though? I get the sense that publications / news media can come up for reasoning on why a stock went up or down after it occurred, but I'm not convinced it's truly causation in most cases, but instead just correlation that they came up with. In general, I think trying to reason about assets over short periods of times typically comes down to emotions rather than fundamentals. Over longer periods of time, fundamentals can start to have some affect. For crypto, I do think there is a narrative that can be pointed to for the run up over the past year - a mix of defi projects that are actually getting traction, scaling solutions for Ethereum allowing it to catch up to demand, and a general inflation scare that drives interest in fixed supply assets not controlled by a central party.