4 ms·

You really shouldn’t feel bad, because what happened has a low probability. It’s like saying I should’ve invested in X which got quadrupled in price last year.

You really shouldn’t feel bad, because what happened has a low probability. It’s like saying I should’ve invested in X which got quadrupled in price last year. Most stocks (even very promising ones) didn’t achieve anywhere near that growth. So you choosing the right one among the many to “shut up and stick to it just a little bit longer” has a low chance of exceptional returns on your investment. You cannot see the future, even the most sophisticated analysis can be wrong, and even the best companies can stagnate for a loong time before getting lucky.

onemiketwelve 6y ago
Exactly. This is like being dealt a horrible set of cards in poker and kicking yourself for folding. Let's say you got 2,7 and then found out the cards on the table turned out to be the rest of the 2s. Folding was still the right move
- hallway_monitor 6y ago
  I wonder how widely the concept of expected value is discussed outside of poker or statistics. Simple concept, but it can really help with all kinds of decisions in life.
  - laurent92 6y ago
    Hi all 3 parents, I agree! 1. It’s incredibly good that the startup founders were actually honest (no last-moment dilution), 2. Stock valuation is poker, although a bit more when you know the company from inside, 3. I’m incredibly thankful towards the owners (Although I’ll hide their name because I don’t have perfect reputation), 4. I’m incredibly thankful towards the economic system which allows us to get at least that. I just wanted to give an example where leaving early wasn’t the perfect choice. But it was as optimized as could be.
- maerF0x0 6y ago
  You're right as an analogy, but don't take this as exact poker advice. Poker isn't just about the cards you're dealt, but also the the players you play (with). I wonder if there is a similar idea/point about startups?
  - alex_anglin 6y ago
    I'd suggest that, unlike poker, it's best not to look at a career as zero-sum.
pinkybanana 6y ago
The problem is that people make lots of claims towards the direction of "stock options are always worthless" when they should say more like "stock options are often worthless but sometimes can be ridiculously valuable". Startup game just provides high returns to small minority, and some people after couple of negative experience seem to decide that everything must suck then and spread it around in here and other forums.
- m463 6y ago
  silicon valley toilet paper. :) https://dilbert.com/strip/2001-03-15 https://dilbert.com/strip/2001-03-15

onemiketwelve 6y ago

Exactly. This is like being dealt a horrible set of cards in poker and kicking yourself for folding. Let's say you got 2,7 and then found out the cards on the table turned out to be the rest of the 2s. Folding was still the right move

hallway_monitor 6y ago
I wonder how widely the concept of expected value is discussed outside of poker or statistics. Simple concept, but it can really help with all kinds of decisions in life.
- laurent92 6y ago
  Hi all 3 parents, I agree! 1. It’s incredibly good that the startup founders were actually honest (no last-moment dilution), 2. Stock valuation is poker, although a bit more when you know the company from inside, 3. I’m incredibly thankful towards the owners (Although I’ll hide their name because I don’t have perfect reputation), 4. I’m incredibly thankful towards the economic system which allows us to get at least that. I just wanted to give an example where leaving early wasn’t the perfect choice. But it was as optimized as could be.
maerF0x0 6y ago
You're right as an analogy, but don't take this as exact poker advice. Poker isn't just about the cards you're dealt, but also the the players you play (with). I wonder if there is a similar idea/point about startups?
- alex_anglin 6y ago
  I'd suggest that, unlike poker, it's best not to look at a career as zero-sum.

pinkybanana 6y ago

The problem is that people make lots of claims towards the direction of "stock options are always worthless" when they should say more like "stock options are often worthless but sometimes can be ridiculously valuable". Startup game just provides high returns to small minority, and some people after couple of negative experience seem to decide that everything must suck then and spread it around in here and other forums.

m463 6y ago
silicon valley toilet paper. :) https://dilbert.com/strip/2001-03-15 https://dilbert.com/strip/2001-03-15