3 ms·

No one picked up the blood clot issue in the trials. What other long term issues could come up? Being skeptical is rational. I have a close friend who runs cli

No one picked up the blood clot issue in the trials. What other long term issues could come up? Being skeptical is rational. I have a close friend who runs clinical trials for a biotech company. This is her area of expertise. She has had entire trials cancelled when 1 person has died from the drug. So the tact they are taking with AZ and J&J is a lot more lenient than normal. Not that I disagree with it, but understand that there are drugs that have been cancelled for less than what these drugs are exhibiting.

perl4ever 5y ago
The risk of a blood clot after the vaccine (which may or may not be causally linked) appears to be about 20 per million. The risk of randomly dying from a fall in a given year appears to be on the order of 120 per million. The most likely way to fall and die if you are in decent health is probably from a ladder. Therefore I feel like owning a ladder is probably (conservatively) on the order of five times as dangerous as getting the vaccine every year. Also, Covid killed on the order of 1600 people per million in the US in the past year. I just don't understand what risk-reward calculation people think they are doing.
- bingbong70 5y ago
  There is the problem of unknown unknowns that makes it hard to define the risk of experimental medical intervention. The risk calculations you are attempting to make have important variables that are undefinable.
- plank_time 5y ago
  The blood clot issue was completely unexpected after the clinical trials. Who’s to say that more issues won’t come up as time goes on? You don’t know if the blood clot issue will get worse over time or new things crop up. That’s the problem with short clinical trials, many of the long term effects aren’t found.
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
  - perl4ever 5y ago
    >Who’s to say that more issues won’t come up as time goes on? I don't think I was saying that they wouldn't. My estimate was based on pessimistically assuming there is a new issue every year. That could be because of a new vaccine or because of delayed issues uncovered with the existing ones.

perl4ever 5y ago

The risk of a blood clot after the vaccine (which may or may not be causally linked) appears to be about 20 per million. The risk of randomly dying from a fall in a given year appears to be on the order of 120 per million. The most likely way to fall and die if you are in decent health is probably from a ladder. Therefore I feel like owning a ladder is probably (conservatively) on the order of five times as dangerous as getting the vaccine every year. Also, Covid killed on the order of 1600 people per million in the US in the past year. I just don't understand what risk-reward calculation people think they are doing.

bingbong70 5y ago
There is the problem of unknown unknowns that makes it hard to define the risk of experimental medical intervention. The risk calculations you are attempting to make have important variables that are undefinable.
plank_time 5y ago
The blood clot issue was completely unexpected after the clinical trials. Who’s to say that more issues won’t come up as time goes on? You don’t know if the blood clot issue will get worse over time or new things crop up. That’s the problem with short clinical trials, many of the long term effects aren’t found.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- perl4ever 5y ago
  >Who’s to say that more issues won’t come up as time goes on? I don't think I was saying that they wouldn't. My estimate was based on pessimistically assuming there is a new issue every year. That could be because of a new vaccine or because of delayed issues uncovered with the existing ones.