6 ms·

Also, a “third booster” and now “annual boosters” have been announced, as predicted. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wsj.com/amp/articles/annual-covid-19-vacc

Also, a “third booster” and now “annual boosters” have been announced, as predicted. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wsj.com/amp/articles/annual-covid-19-vaccine-booster-shots-likely-needed-pfizer-ceo-says-11618520527 https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wsj.com/amp/articles/annual... https://mobile.twitter.com/guscost/status/1342998039817027584 https://mobile.twitter.com/guscost/status/134299803981702758...

ed25519FUUU 5y ago
Getting strong “15 days to flatten the curve” vibes.
- guscost 5y ago
  “It’s just a tiny inconvenience, don’t be selfish!”
  - perl4ever 5y ago
    The only way I can interpret this is that you believe the cost-benefit is not there without a substantial altruistic motive. Do you think that, and if so, why?
    - guscost 5y ago
      The cost in this case is yet another step (or giant leap, depending on what you think of the past year) towards tyranny, to say nothing of the millions who will suffer and die from the actions that have already been taken. The benefit has not been worth the cost, and I will never go along with it. I will literally die on that hill if necessary. At this point I will not spend any more time trying to convince you. The only other thing to answer now is, are you ready to fight a war over this?
      - dang 5y ago
        Please don't take HN threads into flamewars. They're tedious and nasty, and we're trying for something different here. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
  - foogazi 5y ago
    “It’s going to go away”
- maxerickson 5y ago
  There were, uh, people arguing, 12 months ago, that this characterization was bad: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22908490 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22908490 Taiwan's had 1070 cases! And concerts and mostly normal life. (do note that I'm not calling for endless lock downs there, I'm calling for control measures that we didn't really work very hard to put into place; we could have done a lot more to reduce household and workplace spread and so on)
perl4ever 5y ago
From the beginning, people have said that it's somewhat similar to some common cold viruses.
- guscost 5y ago
  It is a common cold virus by now (look up “Evolutionary Dynamics of Viral Attenuation”), and I have been saying that for more than a year.
  - sundaeofshock 5y ago
    Really? How many people are hospitalized each year due to the common cold?
    - StandardFuture 5y ago
      What the theory of "Evolutionary Dynamics of Viral Attenuation" implies is that a lot more people were dying of colds when it first entered the human race. There is also mathematical evidence that compares the probabilistic error rates of COVID replication to the amount of mutations already encountered and it is looking good for us. COVID mutation rates are very high and most if not all have been encountered in humans. While some resist anti-bodies better it appears that none will do so entirely and thus COVID will devolve to a "common cold" as humans themselves are selected out (multi-generationally) for higher amounts of resistance. It's basic biology in action. It is important to remember that almost all diseases work this way (possibly ALL diseases if we could morally afford the extremely high death rates of some of them e.g., a 99.9% death rate for some diseases like rabies).
    - guscost 5y ago
      See sibling response, but also the answer to your question is “more than you would probably think”: https://jcm.asm.org/content/48/8/2940 https://jcm.asm.org/content/48/8/2940 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4181476/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4181476/
  - hvac 5y ago

ed25519FUUU 5y ago

Getting strong “15 days to flatten the curve” vibes.

guscost 5y ago
“It’s just a tiny inconvenience, don’t be selfish!”
- perl4ever 5y ago
  The only way I can interpret this is that you believe the cost-benefit is not there without a substantial altruistic motive. Do you think that, and if so, why?
  - guscost 5y ago
    The cost in this case is yet another step (or giant leap, depending on what you think of the past year) towards tyranny, to say nothing of the millions who will suffer and die from the actions that have already been taken. The benefit has not been worth the cost, and I will never go along with it. I will literally die on that hill if necessary. At this point I will not spend any more time trying to convince you. The only other thing to answer now is, are you ready to fight a war over this?
    - dang 5y ago
      Please don't take HN threads into flamewars. They're tedious and nasty, and we're trying for something different here. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
- foogazi 5y ago
  “It’s going to go away”
maxerickson 5y ago
There were, uh, people arguing, 12 months ago, that this characterization was bad: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22908490 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22908490 Taiwan's had 1070 cases! And concerts and mostly normal life. (do note that I'm not calling for endless lock downs there, I'm calling for control measures that we didn't really work very hard to put into place; we could have done a lot more to reduce household and workplace spread and so on)

perl4ever 5y ago

From the beginning, people have said that it's somewhat similar to some common cold viruses.

guscost 5y ago
It is a common cold virus by now (look up “Evolutionary Dynamics of Viral Attenuation”), and I have been saying that for more than a year.
- sundaeofshock 5y ago
  Really? How many people are hospitalized each year due to the common cold?
  - StandardFuture 5y ago
    What the theory of "Evolutionary Dynamics of Viral Attenuation" implies is that a lot more people were dying of colds when it first entered the human race. There is also mathematical evidence that compares the probabilistic error rates of COVID replication to the amount of mutations already encountered and it is looking good for us. COVID mutation rates are very high and most if not all have been encountered in humans. While some resist anti-bodies better it appears that none will do so entirely and thus COVID will devolve to a "common cold" as humans themselves are selected out (multi-generationally) for higher amounts of resistance. It's basic biology in action. It is important to remember that almost all diseases work this way (possibly ALL diseases if we could morally afford the extremely high death rates of some of them e.g., a 99.9% death rate for some diseases like rabies).
  - guscost 5y ago
    See sibling response, but also the answer to your question is “more than you would probably think”: https://jcm.asm.org/content/48/8/2940 https://jcm.asm.org/content/48/8/2940 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4181476/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4181476/
- hvac 5y ago