>Think I realised a while ago that nothing _predicts_ success. I understand what you're trying to say but as fyi... you're using "predict" in colloquial terms

>Think I realised a while ago that nothing _predicts_ success. I understand what you're trying to say but as fyi... you're using "predict" in colloquial terms which is very different from math statistics where "predictor variable" is a term-of-art: https://www.google.com/search?q=%22statistics%22+%22predictor+variable%22 https://www.google.com/search?q=%22statistics%22+%22predicto... (a) term-of-art statistics example: the X independent variable represents low to high blood alcohol level which is a predictor for car crashes (represented by Y). A high blood alcohol of 0.20% is a better predictor of drivers causing car crashes than the amount of salt eaten in a meal. (b) colloquial usage: Nothing "predicts" car crashes because my uncle Jim drank a whole bottle of vodka and didn't hit anybody when driving home -- while a Tesla self-driving car with no blood alcohol at all crashed into a tree! Predictions about car crashes are bogus. Different usage of (a) and (b) is example of equivocation fallacy: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Equivocation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Equivocation Another way to look at it: (a) is often about aggregates and groups (aka statistics) but (b) is about personal anecdotes or obersvations where n=1. This means they will disagree because they're talking about different things. EDIT reply to : >Well, it's hardly "colloquial" usage, more like conversational, dictionary, typical, etc. I don't what correction you're trying to make here. The top link for https://www.google.com/search?q=colloquial&oq=colloquial https://www.google.com/search?q=colloquial&oq=colloquial ... is : "(of language) used in ordinary or familiar _conversation_; not formal or literary." That matches what you said. >The comment didn't seem like it was grounded in maths/stats terminology. Yes, and that was actually the main point of my comment. This thread's Nautilus article of "predict" refers to research studies which talks talks about statistical predictor variables ("grit" being the X axis independent variable). The gp comment copies the word "predict" in his own comment but uses it in a non-statistical meaning and readers may not be aware of the silent switch in usage. (Equivocation.) E.g. Do SAT test scores "predict" income level? It can be "yes" or "no" depending on which meaning of "predict" one is using.