I can imagine around 100 000 people visiting Mars by 2100. Currently around 50 000 people attempted eight-thousanders with death rate of around 1-2%. The first

I can imagine around 100 000 people visiting Mars by 2100. Currently around 50 000 people attempted eight-thousanders with death rate of around 1-2%. The first recorded successful ascent of an eight-thousander was in 1950. I imagine going to Mars will be something similar towards the end of this century. If we get AI with human like object manipulation and engineering skills before 2050, then I expect prices of basically everything to go down to the cost of impact on other market participants by 2075. Building stuff will be brought down to the impact of raw resources extraction etc. We will may be technologically short of 1M people on Mars by 2075 if we assume no AI. Take nuclear submarines as first order approximation. Currently we seem to have around 500 submarines, although only 1 in 5 seems to be nuclear. So, with the current GDP doubling time of 25 years we could expect 2000 submarines by 2075 and 400 nuclear submarines. For 1M people on Mars we would need an effort comparable to 8000 Ohio-class submarines with the current cost of 16 trillions dollars. In 2000 Bill Gates was worth 60 billion, today Musk is worth some 180 billions. If Musk or other billionaires could keep that rate they still would be short to command it alone, but only by an order of magnitude with ~3 trillion assets. IMO impossible without AI, but possible with AI. But even if it's possible, I think that people will not want to live on Mars in that numbers. It would require around 1 in 10 000 people to migrate to Mars and I don't see the apatite for it. So, IMO it will not happen, not because it will be impossible, but we will not want to do it. Some space exploration timeline from Metaculus [0] a prediction aggregator with established track-record [1]: - When will Starship reach orbit? 50% after 2022 - When will SpaceX's Starship carry a human to orbit? 50% after 2024 - When will SpaceX launch humans around the Moon? 50% after 2026 - NASA lands people on Mars before 2030? 4% - Will SpaceX land anything on Mars by 2030? 80% - SpaceX Lands People on Mars by 2030? 26% - When will the first humans land successfully on Mars? 50% after 2036 - When will the first AGI be first developed and demonstrated? 50% after 2047 - What will be the longest uninterrupted stay in deep space at the end of 2050? 50% less than 650 days - One Million Martian Residents by 2075? 4% [0] https://www.metaculus.com/questions/ https://www.metaculus.com/questions/ [1] https://www.metaculus.com/questions/track-record/ https://www.metaculus.com/questions/track-record/