An insider trade like this isn't about managing risk and things expiring worthless, it's about maximizing expected value while not making it too sus. If you bo

An insider trade like this isn't about managing risk and things expiring worthless, it's about maximizing expected value while not making it too sus. If you bought a deep itm call, it would behave almost exactly like owning a share. The stock goes up 5% , your call goes up 5% + 1% let's say for the increased iv. If you felt like there was a 75% chance it would go up 5% and a 25% chance it goes flat or down, then your best expected value would be buying a otm call. The math would look something like ev= .75 * 400% + .25 * -100% And even then, nobody holds an option that went the wrong way to 0, so the -100% term would be less as well.