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Observer was incorrect in his 'observations', but you're getting ridiculously conspiratorial here. Governments and Central Banks create immense value, they ser

by jariel 5y ago

Observer was incorrect in his 'observations', but you're getting ridiculously conspiratorial here. Governments and Central Banks create immense value, they serve many purposes. They can do things we don't always agree with but that's inevitable. If government disappeared civilization would halt. If Central Banks disappeared, basically the same - everything would stop. Most of the important things that the Central Banks do are published, you can watch it happen. Aside from their obvious value, the very concept of a 'common medium of exchange' is also immensely useful for society. Despite your claim, you're free to use 'Santa Claus Dollars' to do what you want, but that would server no purpose. And you also don't have to hold currency - we live in an era of computers, you can immediately exchange any USD you have for any zillion other kinds of store of value or currencies. You like Swiss Frans - go ahead - buy as many as you want. Crypto serves no real purpose as a currency or a store of value - if BTC and every crypto went to $0 tommorrow, the only thing that would change is we'd stop wasting energy on factoring prime numbers. Obsevers comments about 'governments extinguishing BTC' are nonsensica: nobody is trying to stop crypto, and frankly, as of today they don't care. If the US and EU decided together to ban crypto you can be assured that it would probably be worthless very quickly - there are very few people who want to put vast sums in an asset that could land them in jail. Finally: "Better yet it can be extinguished but it would require government to do the one thing it can't possibly do: A similarly deflationary dollar" Is also missing the point because nobody wants hyper strong currency but a few people who misunderstand currency. It would be nice to have dollars that increased in value over time, but that feature of currency would be very costly and having damaging effects on the economy. What we want is a currency that maintains it's value but very slightly depreciates over time. Just a tiny bit. That's ideal. That way you don't have to worry about your current accounts falling in value, and if you want a better store of value you can do that. If there is an issue with the Central Banks then we should address it because we need 'good money' a lot more than we need to collectively imagine that 'special long numbers' have some kind of value.

ObserverNeutral 5y ago
> If government disappeared civilization would halt. People who are confident in themselves and have the guts to go alone...they don't want any government protection, matter of fact they never asked for it and don't want to pay for it. Government doesn't leave these people a choice to opt out of their protection, hence they start prosecuting them > if the US and EU decided together to ban crypto Coinbase has 50m users, and that's just one exchange. Nobody has the political goodwill to upset hundreds of millions of cryptocurrency investors who'd vote them out next time around. Maybe only China and Russia can. For sure not the US or the EU > Is also missing the point because nobody wants hyper strong currency but a few people who misunderstand currency. BTC success proves that the majority of the population wants that, it might be ignorant but in the end academic papers are not how decisions are made in megasocial groups such as nation states. The population comes up with an idea about how things should be run and dealt with, then people expresses such idea via voting with their wallet, voting with their feet, proper ballots, pressure on institutions etc. Your beloved Fed is the most political agent out there, which was created to calm the population's worries and in response to people worries about inflation and unemployment. Sure enough it's mandate is super political and the answer to people's worries: 1) Price stability which is a way of saying keep inflation low. That's because the population was scarred by inflation in the past and wants institutions to protect against it. 2) Maximum employment: Is there anything more political than this? People were scarred by losing their jobs in the past and want institutions to protect against such thing. People are realizing that the Fed is not doing the best job it can possibly do with #1, instead it is actively hoping for more inflation. So they are looking around to see if there's any concept which is dealing with their worries in a better way and they found crypto > If there is an issue with the Central Banks then we should address it because we need 'good money' a lot more than we need to collectively imagine that 'special long numbers' have some kind of value. That's not what you do. You don't fight, you leave and go where are you served better. People hate inflation and want deflation (regardless of the macroeconomics implications, that's what they want. Period), and sure enough they are voting with their wallets and abandoning the Fed which has a 2% inflation target towards BTC which has an inflation target heavily in the negative and a limited supply
- jariel 5y ago
  "People who are confident in themselves and have the guts to go alone...they don't want any government protection, matter of fact they never asked for it and don't want to pay for it." ??? Yeah, all those people living in 'countries' are kind of weak, what their 'laws', 'regulations', 'infrastructure' like roads, bridges, and 'education'. More seriously "BTC success" - no, BTC is a total failure as a currency, nobody is using it. People are piling in for a variety of reasons, but even as a 'store of value' it's probably the 'least good option' where real estate, stocks, bonds, commodities - or a very low cost ETF would serve considerably better. Leaving it no reason to exist other than as a hyped up scheme. I won't bother to respond to the rest of your treatise other than to point out the obvious, which is that BTC is not remotely a solution to any of the things you're hinting at as being wrong.
  - ObserverNeutral 5y ago
    > I won't bother to respond to the rest of your treatise other than to point out the obvious, which is that BTC is not remotely a solution to any of the things you're hinting at as being wrong. People who try and find "real solutions" to stuff, they miss out on narrative driven price appreciation. Just saying...we are traders and investors not world builders. Our job is to predict whatever goes on in people's minds and how will they express their vision in the capital markets...predict, anticipate and position. It's really all there is to it. > Real estate, ETFs, stocks etc. That's not what price says, price says that btc outperformed all those things, denying that is foolish, I remind you that the market is like the ocean, you don't fight the ocean, you position to ride the strong waves it provides us.
    - jariel 5y ago
      A 'store of value' is something that maintains it's price, not something wildly volatile, with regulatory unknowns that could affect price. BTC is not a 'store of value' is a wild speculation. "People who try and find "real solutions" to stuff, they miss out on narrative driven price appreciation. Just saying...we are traders and investors not world builders." Yes - it's clear that you're not a 'builder', but thankfully there are a lot of people out there not distracted by Ponzi schemes, who are actually 'doing things'.

by jariel 5y ago

ObserverNeutral 5y ago

> If government disappeared civilization would halt. People who are confident in themselves and have the guts to go alone...they don't want any government protection, matter of fact they never asked for it and don't want to pay for it. Government doesn't leave these people a choice to opt out of their protection, hence they start prosecuting them > if the US and EU decided together to ban crypto Coinbase has 50m users, and that's just one exchange. Nobody has the political goodwill to upset hundreds of millions of cryptocurrency investors who'd vote them out next time around. Maybe only China and Russia can. For sure not the US or the EU > Is also missing the point because nobody wants hyper strong currency but a few people who misunderstand currency. BTC success proves that the majority of the population wants that, it might be ignorant but in the end academic papers are not how decisions are made in megasocial groups such as nation states. The population comes up with an idea about how things should be run and dealt with, then people expresses such idea via voting with their wallet, voting with their feet, proper ballots, pressure on institutions etc. Your beloved Fed is the most political agent out there, which was created to calm the population's worries and in response to people worries about inflation and unemployment. Sure enough it's mandate is super political and the answer to people's worries: 1) Price stability which is a way of saying keep inflation low. That's because the population was scarred by inflation in the past and wants institutions to protect against it. 2) Maximum employment: Is there anything more political than this? People were scarred by losing their jobs in the past and want institutions to protect against such thing. People are realizing that the Fed is not doing the best job it can possibly do with #1, instead it is actively hoping for more inflation. So they are looking around to see if there's any concept which is dealing with their worries in a better way and they found crypto > If there is an issue with the Central Banks then we should address it because we need 'good money' a lot more than we need to collectively imagine that 'special long numbers' have some kind of value. That's not what you do. You don't fight, you leave and go where are you served better. People hate inflation and want deflation (regardless of the macroeconomics implications, that's what they want. Period), and sure enough they are voting with their wallets and abandoning the Fed which has a 2% inflation target towards BTC which has an inflation target heavily in the negative and a limited supply

jariel 5y ago
"People who are confident in themselves and have the guts to go alone...they don't want any government protection, matter of fact they never asked for it and don't want to pay for it." ??? Yeah, all those people living in 'countries' are kind of weak, what their 'laws', 'regulations', 'infrastructure' like roads, bridges, and 'education'. More seriously "BTC success" - no, BTC is a total failure as a currency, nobody is using it. People are piling in for a variety of reasons, but even as a 'store of value' it's probably the 'least good option' where real estate, stocks, bonds, commodities - or a very low cost ETF would serve considerably better. Leaving it no reason to exist other than as a hyped up scheme. I won't bother to respond to the rest of your treatise other than to point out the obvious, which is that BTC is not remotely a solution to any of the things you're hinting at as being wrong.
- ObserverNeutral 5y ago
  > I won't bother to respond to the rest of your treatise other than to point out the obvious, which is that BTC is not remotely a solution to any of the things you're hinting at as being wrong. People who try and find "real solutions" to stuff, they miss out on narrative driven price appreciation. Just saying...we are traders and investors not world builders. Our job is to predict whatever goes on in people's minds and how will they express their vision in the capital markets...predict, anticipate and position. It's really all there is to it. > Real estate, ETFs, stocks etc. That's not what price says, price says that btc outperformed all those things, denying that is foolish, I remind you that the market is like the ocean, you don't fight the ocean, you position to ride the strong waves it provides us.
  - jariel 5y ago
    A 'store of value' is something that maintains it's price, not something wildly volatile, with regulatory unknowns that could affect price. BTC is not a 'store of value' is a wild speculation. "People who try and find "real solutions" to stuff, they miss out on narrative driven price appreciation. Just saying...we are traders and investors not world builders." Yes - it's clear that you're not a 'builder', but thankfully there are a lot of people out there not distracted by Ponzi schemes, who are actually 'doing things'.