4 ms·

Risk of rare blood clotting higher for Covid-19 than for vaccines

35 points by lsllc 6y ago

lsllc 6y ago
Key findings: * In this study of over 500,000 COVID-19 patients, CVT occurred in 39 in a million patients. * In over 480,000 people receiving a COVID-19 mRNA vaccine (Pfizer or Moderna), CVT occurred in 4 in a million. * CVT has been reported to occur in about 5 in a million people after first dose of the AZ-Oxford COVID-19 vaccine. * Compared to the mRNA vaccines, the risk of a CVT from COVID-19 is about 10 times greater. * Compared to the AZ-Oxford vaccine, the risk of a CVT from COVID-19 is about 8 times greater.
- jopsen 6y ago
  > CVT has been reported to occur in about 5 in a million people after first dose of the AZ As I understood Danish health authorities they assessed it to 1 in 40.000, which is a bit more.
incrudible 6y ago
I'm reluctant to accept the claim that the risk outweighs the benefits for young women. Denmark recorded two deaths after CVTs likely caused by the vaccine in 2021, but not a single death in the age group <50 from COVID, up until Dec 4th of 2020: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Denmark https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Denmark (If anybody has age-related data on a more complete timeframe, please provide) The risk of getting infected with COVID is not 100% in the first place, and even then there's bound to be a huge number of cases that are never recorded, because they are mild or asymptomatic. This exaggerates the pathology and makes risk-reward estimation more difficult.
- watwut 6y ago
  Specifically young women risk CVT from stuff like anticonception. Which is not considered dangerous. So like, sure there is some risk, but let not pretend this is about concern about health.
  - incrudible 6y ago
    Young women derive a benefit from contraception. If the risk of CVT from a vaccination outweighs the risk of COVID infection for young women, then they do not derive a benefit. The data suggests that this may well be the case.
- foolmeonce 6y ago
  Denmark is a poor example since it is small, had too few cases and clearly is one of the farthest from herd immunity in Europe. Looking at the somewhere like the UK for what would happen, there were very measurable deaths in the <34 group that would occur if a country that did crisis management as (relatively) effectively Denmark opened without vaccination: https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps So the 2 deaths would have to be averaged over additional years of lock down without an exit plan. Sure, there is no reason not to prioritize mRNA for younger women if it is available, but these botched announcements will kill tens of thousands of young women world wide even if the production is never reduced and the delays in countries like South Africa are short lived. I am deeply saddened by the behavior of the US and EU in this regard, it really amounts to a simultaneous false virtue signaling and through snubbing all but the best options, push other nations that don't have priority access to mRNA to now make deadly decisions for some kind of honor that doesn't even make sense.
  - incrudible 6y ago
    > Looking at the somewhere like the UK for what would happen, there were very measurable deaths in the <34 group that would occur if a country that did crisis management as (relatively) effectively Denmark opened without vaccination Your source doesn't show a <34 age group, nor does it differentiate sex. Women have a significantly lower risk than men. I have looked at data from Germany, which shows 59 deaths of females under 40 since the start of the pandemic: https://www.ined.fr/fichier/rte/166/Page%20Data/Germany/Germany_2021_04_08_Deaths_Covid-19.xlsx https://www.ined.fr/fichier/rte/166/Page%20Data/Germany/Germ... This translates to a roughly one in 350,000 chance of death from COVID over more than a year, for females in that age group. There have been nine deaths linked to the vaccination: https://www.wsj.com/articles/astrazeneca-vaccine-faces-fresh-ban-in-germany-for-under-60s-11617116231 https://www.wsj.com/articles/astrazeneca-vaccine-faces-fresh... I do not have data on the amount of AZ doses administered to that cohort, but according to this source the total amount is below 3 million: https://apnews.com/article/germany-cities-suspend-astrazeneca-vaccine-under-60-c6da4f4ed846ebebbe24505bfbf9bfce https://apnews.com/article/germany-cities-suspend-astrazenec... That translates into a roughly one in 330,000 chance of death from the vaccine, for ages 60 and under. It is of course difficult to estimate the future risk of COVID infection, but it's not obvious that it outweighs the risk of the vaccine for that particular cohort. > So the 2 deaths would have to be averaged over additional years of lock down without an exit plan. This is a false dichotomy. Not everybody needs to be vaccinated to dramatically reduce the risk of COVID infection. In particular, it would be unethical to vaccinate those for which the individual risk of vaccination outweighs the risk of infection. > Sure, there is no reason not to prioritize mRNA for younger women if it is available, but these botched announcements will kill tens of thousands of young women world wide even if the production is never reduced and the delays in countries like South Africa are short lived. This is speculation that isn't supported by data. > I am deeply saddened by the behavior of the US and EU in this regard, it really amounts to a simultaneous false virtue signaling and through snubbing all but the best options, push other nations that don't have priority access to mRNA to now make deadly decisions for some kind of honor that doesn't even make sense. This sounds rather arrogant and short-sighted. It's likely that at the current rate, deaths among young women attributed to vaccinations would overtake deaths from the illness itself, which would completely destroy trust in the regulatory bodies, causing irreparable damage to all future vaccination campaigns.
rurban 6y ago
This was known for about half a year already. The risk with COVID-19 is about 40%, extreme. A high risk was also predicted for all vaccination types, not just the vector ones. But so far the mRNA ones evaded it.
blywi 6y ago
Relevant twitter thread by Kai Kupferschmidt, a science journalist, whose top-notch coverage of COVID-19 related topics, I have come to appreciate during this pandemic. Key points: - This paper tells little about the AstraZeneca vaccine, which seems to have a much higher risk of CVST than the mRNA vaccines. Actual quote from press conference: "I think our data say actually nothing about the AZ vaccine." - The number of CVSTs for mRNA vaccines are surprising and very different from the ones presented by ACIP yesterday. https://twitter.com/kakape/status/1382655684496523264 https://twitter.com/kakape/status/1382655684496523264
morsch 6y ago
Regarding AZ, the paper refers to EMA data from three weeks ago[1], which under normal circumstances would be very recent, but in this case I guess it's rather old. I looked up official numbers[2] from Germany from yesterday: about 4 million AZ first dose vaccinations, 55 reported cases of CVST, 11 fatal (6 women, 5 men). Since the CVST occur within a week or two after vaccination, you'd expect a few more cases causally related to the 4m vaccinations, so around 15 cases per million vaccinations and around 3 deaths. That's higher than the number they cite, but still much lower than the number they arrive at for Covid. [1] https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/news/astrazenecas-covid-19-vaccine-ema-finds-possible-link-very-rare-cases-unusual-blood-clots-low-blood https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/news/astrazenecas-covid-19-vacc... [2] https://www.pei.de/DE/service/presse/aktuelles/aktuelles-inhalt.html https://www.pei.de/DE/service/presse/aktuelles/aktuelles-inh... PEI is the German EMA equivalent, basically
nullserver 6y ago
Personal Experience. I clot very easy. (Aggressive Factor 5 Leiden) A few days without a blood thinner means a stoke or other issue. Visual issues always come first so I get warning before major symptoms start. After having Covid I basically can only miss one pill. Anything more and things go bad quickly. I hate the side effects, and they make working a challenge, so I had been trying to walk a line of just enough to not cause problems. I have no margin now. As for vaccine. Well it terrifies me. I can’t up the blood thinners any higher, can’t handle any additional clotting. Of course a second round round of covid could be worse.

35 points by lsllc 6y ago

Key findings: * In this study of over 500,000 COVID-19 patients, CVT occurred in 39 in a million patients. * In over 480,000 people receiving a COVID-19 mRNA vaccine (Pfizer or Moderna), CVT occurred in 4 in a million. * CVT has been reported to occur in about 5 in a million people after first dose of the AZ-Oxford COVID-19 vaccine. * Compared to the mRNA vaccines, the risk of a CVT from COVID-19 is about 10 times greater. * Compared to the AZ-Oxford vaccine, the risk of a CVT from COVID-19 is about 8 times greater.

jopsen 6y ago
> CVT has been reported to occur in about 5 in a million people after first dose of the AZ As I understood Danish health authorities they assessed it to 1 in 40.000, which is a bit more.

incrudible 6y ago

I'm reluctant to accept the claim that the risk outweighs the benefits for young women. Denmark recorded two deaths after CVTs likely caused by the vaccine in 2021, but not a single death in the age group <50 from COVID, up until Dec 4th of 2020: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Denmark https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Denmark (If anybody has age-related data on a more complete timeframe, please provide) The risk of getting infected with COVID is not 100% in the first place, and even then there's bound to be a huge number of cases that are never recorded, because they are mild or asymptomatic. This exaggerates the pathology and makes risk-reward estimation more difficult.

watwut 6y ago
Specifically young women risk CVT from stuff like anticonception. Which is not considered dangerous. So like, sure there is some risk, but let not pretend this is about concern about health.
- incrudible 6y ago
  Young women derive a benefit from contraception. If the risk of CVT from a vaccination outweighs the risk of COVID infection for young women, then they do not derive a benefit. The data suggests that this may well be the case.
foolmeonce 6y ago
Denmark is a poor example since it is small, had too few cases and clearly is one of the farthest from herd immunity in Europe. Looking at the somewhere like the UK for what would happen, there were very measurable deaths in the <34 group that would occur if a country that did crisis management as (relatively) effectively Denmark opened without vaccination: https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps So the 2 deaths would have to be averaged over additional years of lock down without an exit plan. Sure, there is no reason not to prioritize mRNA for younger women if it is available, but these botched announcements will kill tens of thousands of young women world wide even if the production is never reduced and the delays in countries like South Africa are short lived. I am deeply saddened by the behavior of the US and EU in this regard, it really amounts to a simultaneous false virtue signaling and through snubbing all but the best options, push other nations that don't have priority access to mRNA to now make deadly decisions for some kind of honor that doesn't even make sense.
- incrudible 6y ago
  > Looking at the somewhere like the UK for what would happen, there were very measurable deaths in the <34 group that would occur if a country that did crisis management as (relatively) effectively Denmark opened without vaccination Your source doesn't show a <34 age group, nor does it differentiate sex. Women have a significantly lower risk than men. I have looked at data from Germany, which shows 59 deaths of females under 40 since the start of the pandemic: https://www.ined.fr/fichier/rte/166/Page%20Data/Germany/Germany_2021_04_08_Deaths_Covid-19.xlsx https://www.ined.fr/fichier/rte/166/Page%20Data/Germany/Germ... This translates to a roughly one in 350,000 chance of death from COVID over more than a year, for females in that age group. There have been nine deaths linked to the vaccination: https://www.wsj.com/articles/astrazeneca-vaccine-faces-fresh-ban-in-germany-for-under-60s-11617116231 https://www.wsj.com/articles/astrazeneca-vaccine-faces-fresh... I do not have data on the amount of AZ doses administered to that cohort, but according to this source the total amount is below 3 million: https://apnews.com/article/germany-cities-suspend-astrazeneca-vaccine-under-60-c6da4f4ed846ebebbe24505bfbf9bfce https://apnews.com/article/germany-cities-suspend-astrazenec... That translates into a roughly one in 330,000 chance of death from the vaccine, for ages 60 and under. It is of course difficult to estimate the future risk of COVID infection, but it's not obvious that it outweighs the risk of the vaccine for that particular cohort. > So the 2 deaths would have to be averaged over additional years of lock down without an exit plan. This is a false dichotomy. Not everybody needs to be vaccinated to dramatically reduce the risk of COVID infection. In particular, it would be unethical to vaccinate those for which the individual risk of vaccination outweighs the risk of infection. > Sure, there is no reason not to prioritize mRNA for younger women if it is available, but these botched announcements will kill tens of thousands of young women world wide even if the production is never reduced and the delays in countries like South Africa are short lived. This is speculation that isn't supported by data. > I am deeply saddened by the behavior of the US and EU in this regard, it really amounts to a simultaneous false virtue signaling and through snubbing all but the best options, push other nations that don't have priority access to mRNA to now make deadly decisions for some kind of honor that doesn't even make sense. This sounds rather arrogant and short-sighted. It's likely that at the current rate, deaths among young women attributed to vaccinations would overtake deaths from the illness itself, which would completely destroy trust in the regulatory bodies, causing irreparable damage to all future vaccination campaigns.

rurban 6y ago

This was known for about half a year already. The risk with COVID-19 is about 40%, extreme. A high risk was also predicted for all vaccination types, not just the vector ones. But so far the mRNA ones evaded it.

blywi 6y ago

Relevant twitter thread by Kai Kupferschmidt, a science journalist, whose top-notch coverage of COVID-19 related topics, I have come to appreciate during this pandemic. Key points: - This paper tells little about the AstraZeneca vaccine, which seems to have a much higher risk of CVST than the mRNA vaccines. Actual quote from press conference: "I think our data say actually nothing about the AZ vaccine." - The number of CVSTs for mRNA vaccines are surprising and very different from the ones presented by ACIP yesterday. https://twitter.com/kakape/status/1382655684496523264 https://twitter.com/kakape/status/1382655684496523264

morsch 6y ago

Regarding AZ, the paper refers to EMA data from three weeks ago[1], which under normal circumstances would be very recent, but in this case I guess it's rather old. I looked up official numbers[2] from Germany from yesterday: about 4 million AZ first dose vaccinations, 55 reported cases of CVST, 11 fatal (6 women, 5 men). Since the CVST occur within a week or two after vaccination, you'd expect a few more cases causally related to the 4m vaccinations, so around 15 cases per million vaccinations and around 3 deaths. That's higher than the number they cite, but still much lower than the number they arrive at for Covid. [1] https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/news/astrazenecas-covid-19-vaccine-ema-finds-possible-link-very-rare-cases-unusual-blood-clots-low-blood https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/news/astrazenecas-covid-19-vacc... [2] https://www.pei.de/DE/service/presse/aktuelles/aktuelles-inhalt.html https://www.pei.de/DE/service/presse/aktuelles/aktuelles-inh... PEI is the German EMA equivalent, basically

nullserver 6y ago

Personal Experience. I clot very easy. (Aggressive Factor 5 Leiden) A few days without a blood thinner means a stoke or other issue. Visual issues always come first so I get warning before major symptoms start. After having Covid I basically can only miss one pill. Anything more and things go bad quickly. I hate the side effects, and they make working a challenge, so I had been trying to walk a line of just enough to not cause problems. I have no margin now. As for vaccine. Well it terrifies me. I can’t up the blood thinners any higher, can’t handle any additional clotting. Of course a second round round of covid could be worse.